Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted (capped) market-value-weighted index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to be announced in early August 2023 based on trading data as of end-June 2023.</li>
</ul>


The JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted (capped) market-value-weighted index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to be announced in early August 2023 based on trading data as of end-June 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard JPX-Nikkei 400: Final Predictions for August 2023

<ul>
<li>The JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted (capped) market-value-weighted index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to be announced in early August 2023 based on trading data as of end-May 2023.</li>
</ul>


The JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted (capped) market-value-weighted index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to be announced in early August 2023 based on trading data as of end-May 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard JPX-Nikkei 400: End-May 2023

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The share price has declined by 15% from its March high, perhaps on misplaced concerns about its HTM bond book and capitalization. </li>
<li>We have little concern about a collapse in the Japanese housing market and see little impact from higher defaults on capitalization. </li>
<li>We see a modest 19% downside if management continues to build up excess capital.  Hibiki's plan points to over 20% upside. </li>
</ul>


The share price has declined by 15% from its March high, perhaps on misplaced concerns about its HTM bond book and capitalization. 
We have little concern about a collapse in the Japanese housing market and see little impact from higher defaults on capitalization. 
We see a modest 19% downside if management continues to build up excess capital.  Hibiki's plan points to over 20% upside. 


Zenkoku Hosho (7164) | The (Hibiki) Path to a Higher Share Price

Research from Mita Securities, Mita Securities

Mita Securities

Research from Mita Securities

Mita Securities provides a full scale diversified investment banking and financial services. A comprehensive investment banking department, specializes in rights offerings advisory, take-over bids agents, M&A etc. Including a proprietary trading desk, and wealth management department that offers brokerage, custody, real estate, and full proxy services.

<ul><li>On June 13, Zenkoku Hosho (7164, the company) announced that it would enter into a capital and business alliance with Shikoku Sougou Shinyou (Shisoushin)</li><li>Shisoushin is a guarantee company established as a joint venture of the second-tier regional banks in Shikoku, and is engaged in the business of guaranteeing mortgages and consumer loans</li><li>The company now plans to acquire a 19.5% stake in Shisoushin</li></ul>

On June 13, Zenkoku Hosho (7164, the company) announced that it would enter into a capital and business alliance with Shikoku Sougou Shinyou (Shisoushin)Shisoushin is a guarantee company established as a joint venture of the second-tier regional banks in Shikoku, and is engaged in the business of guaranteeing mortgages and consumer loansThe company now plans to acquire a 19.5% stake in Shisoushin

Zenkoku Hosho (7164): Capital and Business Alliance with Shisoushin

<ul><li>Compared to our forecast, operating revenue and the number of new guarantees executed were lower. On the other hand, credit-related expenses were lower than our assumption</li><li>The company’s OP guidance for FY3/23 is 40.970bn yen (+3.8% YoY), more conservative than our forecast of 43.137bn yen and the QUICK consensus forecast of 43.653bn yen</li><li>The company disclosed that it purchased two RMBS, etc. in FY3/22. The total amount of the underlying assets was 60bn yen.</li></ul>

Compared to our forecast, operating revenue and the number of new guarantees executed were lower. On the other hand, credit-related expenses were lower than our assumptionThe company’s OP guidance for FY3/23 is 40.970bn yen (+3.8% YoY), more conservative than our forecast of 43.137bn yen and the QUICK consensus forecast of 43.653bn yenThe company disclosed that it purchased two RMBS, etc. in FY3/22. The total amount of the underlying assets was 60bn yen.

Zenkoku Hosho (7164): FY3/22 OP Achieved Guidance, but Not Strong Enough; Credit Costs Remain Low

Japan

Zenkoku Hosho Co. Ltd. is a credit guarantee company mainly for real estate or education loans. The company also provides insurance agency and credit check services.

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Zenkoku Hosho (7164 JP)

Quiddity Leaderboard JPX-Nikkei 400: Final Predictions for August 2023

I expect the JPX-Nikkei Index Changes announcement to be on 7th August 2023 and the Inclusion/Exclusion events to be at the close of 30th August...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard JPX-Nikkei 400: End-May 2023

There are 46 Potential ADDs and 44 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard. The MED conviction potential ADDs...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Zenkoku Hosho (7164): Capital and Business Alliance with Shisoushin

On June 13, Zenkoku Hosho (7164, the company) announced that it would enter into a capital and business alliance with Shikoku Sougou Shinyou...

Mita Securities

Zenkoku Hosho (7164): FY3/22 OP Achieved Guidance, but Not Strong Enough; Credit Costs Remain Low

Compared to our forecast, operating revenue and the number of new guarantees executed were lower. On the other hand, credit-related expenses were...

Mita Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard JPX-Nikkei 400: Final Predictions for August 2023

I expect the JPX-Nikkei Index Changes announcement to be on 7th August 2023 and the Inclusion/Exclusion events to be at the close of 30th August...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard JPX-Nikkei 400: End-May 2023

There are 46 Potential ADDs and 44 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard. The MED conviction potential ADDs...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Zenkoku Hosho (7164) | The (Hibiki) Path to a Higher Share Price

We believe that the recent sell-off in the share price of Zenkoku Hosho represents a good opportunity to pick up the stock at a reasonable...

Mark Chadwick

Zenkoku Hosho (7164): Capital and Business Alliance with Shisoushin

On June 13, Zenkoku Hosho (7164, the company) announced that it would enter into a capital and business alliance with Shikoku Sougou Shinyou...

Mita Securities

Zenkoku Hosho (7164): FY3/22 OP Achieved Guidance, but Not Strong Enough; Credit Costs Remain Low

Compared to our forecast, operating revenue and the number of new guarantees executed were lower. On the other hand, credit-related expenses were...

Mita Securities