Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Three quarters of the way through the review period, we forecast 10 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-price-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">Chinext Price Index (SZ399006 INDEX)</a> and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy +/-0.5 days of ADV for most inclusions and exclusions from the indices. On average, the impact on the potential deletions is higher.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last six months, and there has been a sharp widening of the gap over the last few weeks.</li>
</ul>


Three quarters of the way through the review period, we forecast 10 changes for the Chinext Price Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.
Passive trackers will need to buy +/-0.5 days of ADV for most inclusions and exclusions from the indices. On average, the impact on the potential deletions is higher.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last six months, and there has been a sharp widening of the gap over the last few weeks.


ChiNext/​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Overlapping Stocks & Recent Outperformance

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Giant Biogene has been added to Hong Kong Stock Connect.There’s also positive sentiment driven by the consumption recovery after China reopens. But the Company is overvalued if compared with peers.</li>
<li>The subsequent product pipeline progress is relatively slow, with a gap of nearly two years in the middle. So, Giant Biogene's stock price performance may be relatively weak after 2024.</li>
<li>Due to various restrictions, the actual market space of collagen in the future may not be as large as expected. This is a point investors need to be aware of.</li>
</ul>


Giant Biogene has been added to Hong Kong Stock Connect.There’s also positive sentiment driven by the consumption recovery after China reopens. But the Company is overvalued if compared with peers.
The subsequent product pipeline progress is relatively slow, with a gap of nearly two years in the middle. So, Giant Biogene's stock price performance may be relatively weak after 2024.
Due to various restrictions, the actual market space of collagen in the future may not be as large as expected. This is a point investors need to be aware of.


Giant Biogene Holding (2367.HK) - The Situation May Not Be as Rosy as It Looks

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Giant Biogene has priced its IPO at HK$24.30 per share, at the lower end of the company’s indicative IPO price range of HK$24.3-27.7 per share and raised HK$495.8m (US$63.2m).</li>
<li>The HK offering was oversubscribed by only 2.08 times while the international offering was subscribed by 4.22 times.</li>
<li>Though Biogene’s IPO was priced attractively, we think lower demand for the company’s shares led to pricing at the bottom of the IPO price range.</li>
</ul>


Giant Biogene has priced its IPO at HK$24.30 per share, at the lower end of the company’s indicative IPO price range of HK$24.3-27.7 per share and raised HK$495.8m (US$63.2m).
The HK offering was oversubscribed by only 2.08 times while the international offering was subscribed by 4.22 times.
Though Biogene’s IPO was priced attractively, we think lower demand for the company’s shares led to pricing at the bottom of the IPO price range.


Giant Biogene: Thoughts on First Day Trading

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Giant Biogene (GB) raised around US$70m by pricing its  HK IPO at the low-end.</li>
<li>GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.</li>
<li>We had looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Giant Biogene (GB) raised around US$70m by pricing its  HK IPO at the low-end.
GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.
We had looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.


Giant Biogene IPO Trading - Demand Was Relatively Better but Still Weak

<ul>
<li>Although the recombinant collagen with relatively low price is “subversive” in the preparation process, animal-derived collagen is still more widely used, covering larger markets with various products. </li>
<li>Either for business diversification or to avoid policy risks, how to explore the second growth point is important to Giant Biogene.Otherwise,the Company's hard to improve the resilience to market/policy changes.</li>
<li>Bloomage would have higher valuation expansion potential than Giant Biogene in mid- to long-term. In other words, if the valuation of Giant Biogene is higher than Bloomage, there’s overvaluation risk.</li>
</ul>


Although the recombinant collagen with relatively low price is “subversive” in the preparation process, animal-derived collagen is still more widely used, covering larger markets with various products. 
Either for business diversification or to avoid policy risks, how to explore the second growth point is important to Giant Biogene.Otherwise,the Company's hard to improve the resilience to market/policy changes.
Bloomage would have higher valuation expansion potential than Giant Biogene in mid- to long-term. In other words, if the valuation of Giant Biogene is higher than Bloomage, there’s overvaluation risk.


Pre-IPO Giant Biogene (2367 HK) - Some Unstable Factors

China

Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co. LTD manufactures and sells skin care and cosmetics. The Company produces masks, toners, hand creams, and other cosmetics. Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group also develops new biology technologies.

Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology (300957 CH)

Price Gauge
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Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology (300957 CH)

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Overlapping Stocks & Recent Outperformance

We forecast 10 changes to the ChiNext & 5 changes to the ChiNext50 in June. There are a few overlapping stocks & the potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

Giant Biogene Holding (2367.HK) - The Situation May Not Be as Rosy as It Looks

After Giant Biogene has been added to Hong Kong Stock Connect, liquidity would improve a lot. But lower-than-expected market space, competition and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Giant Biogene: Thoughts on First Day Trading

Biogene priced its IPO at the bottom of the range due to lower demand as current market volatility has resulted in lower investor appetite. IPO is...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Giant Biogene IPO Trading - Demand Was Relatively Better but Still Weak

Giant Biogene (GB) raised around US$70m by pricing its HK IPO at the low-end. In this note we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Pre-IPO Giant Biogene (2367 HK) - Some Unstable Factors

Giant Biogene's marketing-driven development will lead to low margins. It takes time for recombinant collagen to replace animal-derived collagen....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ChiNext/​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Overlapping Stocks & Recent Outperformance

We forecast 10 changes to the ChiNext & 5 changes to the ChiNext50 in June. There are a few overlapping stocks & the potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

Giant Biogene Holding (2367.HK) - The Situation May Not Be as Rosy as It Looks

After Giant Biogene has been added to Hong Kong Stock Connect, liquidity would improve a lot. But lower-than-expected market space, competition and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Giant Biogene: Thoughts on First Day Trading

Biogene priced its IPO at the bottom of the range due to lower demand as current market volatility has resulted in lower investor appetite. IPO is...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Giant Biogene IPO Trading - Demand Was Relatively Better but Still Weak

Giant Biogene (GB) raised around US$70m by pricing its HK IPO at the low-end. In this note we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Pre-IPO Giant Biogene (2367 HK) - Some Unstable Factors

Giant Biogene's marketing-driven development will lead to low margins. It takes time for recombinant collagen to replace animal-derived collagen....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Overlapping Stocks & Recent Outperformance