HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The current policy environment determines that TCM is the core asset of pharmaceuticals, not innovative drugs. We think it is necessary to take a fresh look at TCM industry.</li>
<li>TCM formula granules have more opportunities. Exclusive variety of branded OTC TCM has better outlook. TCM medical services also deserve investors’ attention, because hospitals are the main channels for TCM. </li>
<li>China's pharmaceutical industry has its unique features. We recommend investors to leave a place in the portfolio to invest in TCM companies, which could outperform in the current pharmaceutical environment.</li>
</ul>


The current policy environment determines that TCM is the core asset of pharmaceuticals, not innovative drugs. We think it is necessary to take a fresh look at TCM industry.
TCM formula granules have more opportunities. Exclusive variety of branded OTC TCM has better outlook. TCM medical services also deserve investors’ attention, because hospitals are the main channels for TCM. 
China's pharmaceutical industry has its unique features. We recommend investors to leave a place in the portfolio to invest in TCM companies, which could outperform in the current pharmaceutical environment.


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Industry - TCM Is Becoming Indispensable in the Portfolio

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The majority revenue of Shanghai Pharmaceuticals comes from pharmaceutical distribution business, but the pharmaceutical manufacturing business has much higher gross margin,which drives up the overall profit margin of the Company.</li>
<li>Due to VBP, profit margin is under pressure. Weak demand for COVID-19 vaccines, decreasing long-term profitability and concerns on synergistic effect of cooperation with Yunnan Baiyao cast doubt on outlook.</li>
<li>Compared with peers, the valuation of Shanghai Pharmaceuticals doesn’t show decent upside potential. High valuation expectations cannot be supported due to industry trend. Its share prices could underperform.</li>
</ul>


The majority revenue of Shanghai Pharmaceuticals comes from pharmaceutical distribution business, but the pharmaceutical manufacturing business has much higher gross margin,which drives up the overall profit margin of the Company.
Due to VBP, profit margin is under pressure. Weak demand for COVID-19 vaccines, decreasing long-term profitability and concerns on synergistic effect of cooperation with Yunnan Baiyao cast doubt on outlook.
Compared with peers, the valuation of Shanghai Pharmaceuticals doesn’t show decent upside potential. High valuation expectations cannot be supported due to industry trend. Its share prices could underperform.


Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (2607.HK)- Low Profitability Is Big Problem; Share Price Would Underperform

Beijing Tongrentang Co A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2018 was a watershed for Tongrentang. After the incident of using expired honey was exposed and the corruption scandal afterwards, Tongrentang's performance declined significantly and didn’t recover until 2021.</li>
<li>Angong Niuhuang Pill is the major performance driver and also Tongrentang’s core product. Due to the economic downturn, the price increase of Angong Niuhuang Pills could lead to inventory overstocking.</li>
<li>The high growth in 2021 may not be sustained. We lowered our forecast for 2022. Without core competitiveness and high moat, we are conservative about Tongrentang’s long-term outlook.</li>
</ul>


2018 was a watershed for Tongrentang. After the incident of using expired honey was exposed and the corruption scandal afterwards, Tongrentang's performance declined significantly and didn’t recover until 2021.
Angong Niuhuang Pill is the major performance driver and also Tongrentang’s core product. Due to the economic downturn, the price increase of Angong Niuhuang Pills could lead to inventory overstocking.
The high growth in 2021 may not be sustained. We lowered our forecast for 2022. Without core competitiveness and high moat, we are conservative about Tongrentang’s long-term outlook.


Beijing Tongrentang (600085.CH)- Neither Brand Nor Angong Niuhuang Pills Can Secure Future Prospects

Equity Capital Markets

Weimeizi (Guangdong) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>WEIMEIZI develops the oral care market by means of large promotion and marketing so as to attract consumers, which helps Saky become one of the top brands in China.</li>
<li>However, with the layout of other long-lasting reputable brands and the entry of new brands, how to maintain the market share in fierce competition has become an important issue.</li>
<li>WEIMEIZI’s leading market position is not solid, unless it could create differentiated products and keep up with industry trends closely. </li>
</ul>


WEIMEIZI develops the oral care market by means of large promotion and marketing so as to attract consumers, which helps Saky become one of the top brands in China.
However, with the layout of other long-lasting reputable brands and the entry of new brands, how to maintain the market share in fierce competition has become an important issue.
WEIMEIZI’s leading market position is not solid, unless it could create differentiated products and keep up with industry trends closely. 


Pre-IPO Weimeizi (Guangdong) - The Market Position Is Not Solid

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Industrial, healthcare and consumer discretionary led the inflow while financials led the outflow.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Shenzhen Inovance and Nari Technology that worth investor attention. </li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Industrial, healthcare and consumer discretionary led the inflow while financials led the outflow.
We highlight inflows into Shenzhen Inovance and Nari Technology that worth investor attention. 


Northbound Flows: Shenzhen Inovance, Nari Technology

China

Yunnan Baiyao Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets traditional Chinese medicines.  The Company also operates in pharmaceutical wholesale and retail trading, empty capsules manufacturing, and hotel operation.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Yunnan Baiyao Group Co., (000538 CH)

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Industry - TCM Is Becoming Indispensable in the Portfolio

The current policy environment in China indicates that TCM is core asset of pharmaceuticals, not innovative drug R&D. It''s time to take TCM...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Beijing Tongrentang (600085.CH)- Neither Brand Nor Angong Niuhuang Pills Can Secure Future Prospects

Angong Niuhuang Pill is the major performance driver. Due to economic downturn, its price hike will lead to inventory overstocking. Without high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Weimeizi (Guangdong) - The Market Position Is Not Solid

WEIMEIZI develops oral care market via large promotion, but its market position is not solid due to fierce competition, unless it could create...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Northbound Flows: Shenzhen Inovance, Nari Technology

We highlight weekly Hong Kong Connect northbound inflows into Moutai, Yunnan Baiyao, Media Group, Shenzhen Inovance and Nari Technology.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Industry - TCM Is Becoming Indispensable in the Portfolio

The current policy environment in China indicates that TCM is core asset of pharmaceuticals, not innovative drug R&D. It''s time to take TCM...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (2607.HK)- Low Profitability Is Big Problem; Share Price Would Underperform

Due to VBP, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals will face low margin. Weak COVID vaccine demand/uncertain synergistic effect of cooperation with Yunnan Baiyao...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Beijing Tongrentang (600085.CH)- Neither Brand Nor Angong Niuhuang Pills Can Secure Future Prospects

Angong Niuhuang Pill is the major performance driver. Due to economic downturn, its price hike will lead to inventory overstocking. Without high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Weimeizi (Guangdong) - The Market Position Is Not Solid

WEIMEIZI develops oral care market via large promotion, but its market position is not solid due to fierce competition, unless it could create...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Northbound Flows: Shenzhen Inovance, Nari Technology

We highlight weekly Hong Kong Connect northbound inflows into Moutai, Yunnan Baiyao, Media Group, Shenzhen Inovance and Nari Technology.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM