Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust / Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/mergers-and-acquisitions/esr-bidders-said-to-weigh-bringing-in-more-investors-for-buyout" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a> that the bidding consortium is in talks to bring in other partners, such as QIA, PIF, and CPP Investment Board, to aid in privatising <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Warburg Pincus and OMERS have blocking stakes for a Cayman scheme. Warburg Pincus is seemingly supportive, and the consortium’s expansion talks suggest confidence in meeting OMERS’ price expectations.</li>
<li>Our best guess is that an offer is around HK$14.00. ESR’s current valuation is undemanding, with its forward EV/EBITDA multiple at a 40% discount compared to the median peers’ multiple.</li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reports that the bidding consortium is in talks to bring in other partners, such as QIA, PIF, and CPP Investment Board, to aid in privatising ESR Group (1821 HK).
Warburg Pincus and OMERS have blocking stakes for a Cayman scheme. Warburg Pincus is seemingly supportive, and the consortium’s expansion talks suggest confidence in meeting OMERS’ price expectations.
Our best guess is that an offer is around HK$14.00. ESR’s current valuation is undemanding, with its forward EV/EBITDA multiple at a 40% discount compared to the median peers’ multiple.


ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress

Langham Hospitality Inv Ss / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/langham-hospitality-inv-ss" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:760:1" rel="noopener">Langham Hospitality Inv Ss (1270 HK)</a> received a notice from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eagle-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:758:1" rel="noopener">Great Eagle Holdings (41 HK)</a>, the largest unitholder, that it intends to present a detailed proposal for scheme privatisation.</li>
<li>The privatisation interest is unsurprising, as the unit price has declined by 43% over the last twelve months. A tough 2023 did not help the declining sentiment.</li>
<li>Our methodology for triangulating the potential offer price results in a range of HK$0.63-1.76. Our best guess is an offer of around HK$0.85, a 47% premium to the last close.</li>
</ul>



Langham Hospitality Inv Ss (1270 HK) received a notice from Great Eagle Holdings (41 HK), the largest unitholder, that it intends to present a detailed proposal for scheme privatisation.
The privatisation interest is unsurprising, as the unit price has declined by 43% over the last twelve months. A tough 2023 did not help the declining sentiment.
Our methodology for triangulating the potential offer price results in a range of HK$0.63-1.76. Our best guess is an offer of around HK$0.85, a 47% premium to the last close.


Langham Hospitality Investments (1270 HK): Great Eagle (41 HK)’s Possible Scheme Privatisation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>400+ days ago, the TCC Group bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)</a> at just over 1.05x NAV failed on a combination of vocal minority opposition and minority apathy.</li>
<li>FHT has dramatically outperformed plummeting peers over the last few months on hope TCC might re-up that bid, but weaker peers and CRE markets suggest financing could be tougher.</li>
<li>Nothing is impossible, but it might make more sense for TCC to up its stake by stealth here rather than brute force. Earnings are 7 November.</li>
</ul>


400+ days ago, the TCC Group bid for Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP) at just over 1.05x NAV failed on a combination of vocal minority opposition and minority apathy.
FHT has dramatically outperformed plummeting peers over the last few months on hope TCC might re-up that bid, but weaker peers and CRE markets suggest financing could be tougher.
Nothing is impossible, but it might make more sense for TCC to up its stake by stealth here rather than brute force. Earnings are 7 November.


Frasers Hospitality - Will TCC Renew Its Takeover Offer? Market Prices Bet Yes Ahead of Earnings

Global Head of Research & Head of Europe, Lucror Analytics

Felix Fischer

Global Head of Research & Head of Europe

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.
In this Insight:
<ol>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SK Hynix</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-transmission-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Adani Transmission</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cifi-holdings-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CIFI Holdings</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rakuten</a></li>
</ol>
and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.
In this Insight:

SK Hynix
Adani Transmission
Adani Green Energy
CIFI Holdings
Rakuten

and more...

Hong Kong

Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust invests in a diverse portfolio of income producing properties which are used primarily for office, retail, and other commercial purposes in China.

Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (405 HK)

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Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (405 HK)

Morning Views Asia:

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress

The probability of an offer remains high, and the latest Bloomberg reports suggest progress towards a binding proposal. Our best guess is that an...

Arun George

Langham Hospitality Investments (1270 HK): Great Eagle (41 HK)’s Possible Scheme Privatisation

Our methodology for triangulating the potential offer price results in a range of HK$0.63-1.76. Our best guess is an offer of around HK$0.85, a 47%...

Arun George

Frasers Hospitality - Will TCC Renew Its Takeover Offer? Market Prices Bet Yes Ahead of Earnings

Frasers Hospitality Trust is trading as if TCC might make another offer. But peers in Singapore/Asia are getting crushed, and globally CRE is in...

Travis Lundy

Weekly Wrap - 25 Oct 2024

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

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