Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a> selling its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> shares was expected. The beginning of an open-ended share repurchase programme of Prosus and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> shares was a welcome surprise.</li>
<li>Dye &amp; Durham has reduced its Offer price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> to $4.30/share, down from $5.50/share. It still may get board support.</li>
<li>A 40-45% discount is about the narrowest <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> should get to. For that, there is probably 15-20% upside. But like all holdco trades, trade the range.</li>
</ul>



Prosus (PRX NA) selling its JD.com (9618 HK) shares was expected. The beginning of an open-ended share repurchase programme of Prosus and Naspers (NPN SJ) shares was a welcome surprise.
Dye &amp; Durham has reduced its Offer price for Link Administration (LNK AU) to $4.30/share, down from $5.50/share. It still may get board support.
A 40-45% discount is about the narrowest Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) should get to. For that, there is probably 15-20% upside. But like all holdco trades, trade the range.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Prosus/Naspers, Link Admin, Bank of Kyoto, Tassel, Toshiba

<ul>
<li>There are 49 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)</a>'s Scheme, and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pfizer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1" rel="noopener">Pfizer Inc (PFE US)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/narhex-life-sciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9728:1" rel="noopener">Resapp Health (RAP AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virtus-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14776:1" rel="noopener">Virtus Health (VRT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kito-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19512:1" rel="noopener">Kito Corporation (6409 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hwa-hong-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6648:1" rel="noopener">Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 49 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals this week: Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)'s Scheme, and  Pfizer Inc (PFE US)'s Offer for Resapp Health (RAP AU).
Key updates took place for: Link Administration (LNK AU), Virtus Health (VRT AU), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Kito Corporation (6409 JP), and Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP).


Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: ResApp Health, Kto Corp, Link Admin, Toyo, Fraser Hospitality

<ul>
<li>If Silchester's activism towards <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiga-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18665:1" rel="noopener">Shiga (8366 JP)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugoku-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11177:1" rel="noopener">Chugoku (8382 JP)</a> is going to be fought, it is going to be fought in the Japanese media, not in the AGM convocation. </li>
<li>The idea that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a> de-merger could be thwarted is something which could dampen spirits on the stock near-term</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-transport-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2395:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP)</a> as a risk arb situation is trading wide. It should trade tighter. </li>
</ul>


If Silchester's activism towards Shiga (8366 JP) &amp; Chugoku (8382 JP) is going to be fought, it is going to be fought in the Japanese media, not in the AGM convocation. 
The idea that the AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU) de-merger could be thwarted is something which could dampen spirits on the stock near-term

Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) as a risk arb situation is trading wide. It should trade tighter. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Hitachi Transport, Shiga Bank, CP Food, AGL, Woodside/BHP, Yamada Denki

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Yashili International Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danone-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21403:1" rel="noopener">Danone SA (BN FP)</a> will sell to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a> its 25% Yashili stake for HK$1.20 per share. Post-completion, Mengniu will launch a privatisation offer at HK$1.20.  </li>
<li>The privatisation is subject to several pre-conditions, which carry low risk in our view. The key conditions are the headcount test and rejections by &lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders.</li>
<li>The offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a> is attractive. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 30.4%. Buy up to HK$1.09 (implies an 85% deal probability).</li>
</ul>



Danone SA (BN FP) will sell to China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) its 25% Yashili stake for HK$1.20 per share. Post-completion, Mengniu will launch a privatisation offer at HK$1.20.  
The privatisation is subject to several pre-conditions, which carry low risk in our view. The key conditions are the headcount test and rejections by &lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders.
The offer for Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) is attractive. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 30.4%. Buy up to HK$1.09 (implies an 85% deal probability).


Yashili’s HK$1.20 Privatisation Offer from Mengniu

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a> has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0506/2022050602098.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a pre-conditional Offer, by way of a Scheme, from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>The cancellation price of HK$1.20/share, a 31.9% premium to last close, and a 161% premium to the undisturbed price, is in line with the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0316/2022031601535.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">16 March announcement</a>.</li>
<li>Conditions involve various business disposals and the exit of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danone-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21403:1" rel="noopener">Danone SA (BN FP)</a>'s stake in Yashili;  yet apart from timing, which is contingent on regulatory approvals, this looks done. </li>
</ul>



Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) has announced a pre-conditional Offer, by way of a Scheme, from China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK).
The cancellation price of HK$1.20/share, a 31.9% premium to last close, and a 161% premium to the undisturbed price, is in line with the 16 March announcement.
Conditions involve various business disposals and the exit of Danone SA (BN FP)'s stake in Yashili;  yet apart from timing, which is contingent on regulatory approvals, this looks done. 


Yashili (1230 HK)'s Pre-Conditional Offer From Mengniu

China

Yashili International Holdings Ltd. produces dairy products.  The Company operates milk processing plants in Guangdong, Heilongjiang, Shanxi and Henan Provinces in China.

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Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Prosus/Naspers, Link Admin, Bank of Kyoto, Tassel, Toshiba

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: ResApp Health, Kto Corp, Link Admin, Toyo, Fraser Hospitality

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hitachi Transport, Shiga Bank, CP Food, AGL, Woodside/BHP, Yamada Denki

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Yashili’s HK$1.20 Privatisation Offer from Mengniu

Mengniu will launch a pre-conditional privatisation offer at HK$1.20. The risk around the pre-conditions is low. At the last close, the gross...

Arun George

Yashili (1230 HK)'s Pre-Conditional Offer From Mengniu

HK$1.20/share will get up. I'd be a buyer here. I'd probably bid up to ~HK$1.13/share or a gross/annualised spread of 6.2%/15%.

David Blennerhassett

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