IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, has launched a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million at a fixed price of HK$12.00.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105041" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-updates-tilts-the-balance-positively" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:114387" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively</a>. 
</li>
<li>The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, has launched a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million at a fixed price of HK$12.00.
We previously discussed the IPO in J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case and J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively. 

The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.


J&T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>How did CaiNiao turn profitable? We answer with an analysis of the company's P&amp;L</li>
<li>We also analyze CaiNiao's Balance Sheet, Cash Flow statement, and Operating Stats</li>
<li>We conclude with a list of ten questions we would put to CaiNiao management</li>
</ul>


How did CaiNiao turn profitable? We answer with an analysis of the company's P&amp;L
We also analyze CaiNiao's Balance Sheet, Cash Flow statement, and Operating Stats
We conclude with a list of ten questions we would put to CaiNiao management


CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 2 | Analyzing Financial Statements & Operating Statistics

<ul>
<li>After analyzing J&amp;T's Chinese and SE Asian operations in previous insights, in this note we turn to the company's 'Others' segment, made up of New Markets and X-Border logistics</li>
<li>Compared to China and SE Asia, J&amp;T's New Markets and X-Border logistics business lines are small (just 11% of 2022 Revenue) but could offer attractive growth in the medium-term</li>
<li>We conclude this insight with a preliminary sum-of-parts valuation of J&amp;T as a whole. Based on available information, our initial estimate of J&amp;T's EV is US$8.6 bn (pre-IPO)</li>
</ul>


After analyzing J&amp;T's Chinese and SE Asian operations in previous insights, in this note we turn to the company's 'Others' segment, made up of New Markets and X-Border logistics
Compared to China and SE Asia, J&amp;T's New Markets and X-Border logistics business lines are small (just 11% of 2022 Revenue) but could offer attractive growth in the medium-term
We conclude this insight with a preliminary sum-of-parts valuation of J&amp;T as a whole. Based on available information, our initial estimate of J&amp;T's EV is US$8.6 bn (pre-IPO)


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 3: 'New Markets' & X-Border | Our Initial EV Estimate Is US$8.6 Bn

<ul>
<li>Business model: how does CaiNiao get paid, and by whom, and for what?</li>
<li>Key relationships with parent Alibaba and with China's listed express companies</li>
<li>Differentiators: what makes CaiNiao different from other e-comm logistics names?</li>
</ul>


Business model: how does CaiNiao get paid, and by whom, and for what?
Key relationships with parent Alibaba and with China's listed express companies
Differentiators: what makes CaiNiao different from other e-comm logistics names?


CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 1 | Business Model | Key Relationships | Differentiators

<ul>
<li>SF Holding's HK listing document provides added details of current international revenue </li>
<li>Two recent moves show SF's intent to raise international sales (and reduce China exposure)</li>
<li>As SF Holding courts a global investor base, its comps will become the global express names</li>
</ul>


SF Holding's HK listing document provides added details of current international revenue 
Two recent moves show SF's intent to raise international sales (and reduce China exposure)
As SF Holding courts a global investor base, its comps will become the global express names


SF Holding HK IPO = A Drive to 'Internationalize' | Exposure Update | Recent Deals | New Comp Group

Japan

Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. mainly provides door-to-door parcel delivery services. The Company has developed a nationwide delivery system specializing in time-specified delivery. Yamato Holdings offers moving services and other comprehensive transportation services including logistics services for both domestic and overseas customers as well as financial and autoworks services.

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Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)

J&T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights

The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.

Arun George

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 2 | Analyzing Financial Statements & Operating Statistics

In this insight we scrutinize CaiNiao's financial statements, analyze the few operating statistics the company provided in its prospectus, and...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 3: 'New Markets' & X-Border | Our Initial EV Estimate Is US$8.6 Bn

We're pulling this note out of the archives in light of J&T’s updated HKEX filing and its decision to begin pushing forward with its IPO this week....

Tracking Traffic

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 1 | Business Model | Key Relationships | Differentiators

In this insight we look at CaiNiao's busines model, its relationships with Alibaba and the express companies, and the ways in which it...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding HK IPO = A Drive to 'Internationalize' | Exposure Update | Recent Deals | New Comp Group

Internationalization is what SF Holding is aiming for as it seeks to sell shares in HK. This insight covers three facets of SF's...

Tracking Traffic

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