Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Japanese inflation, which peaked at 4.3% in January 2023, gradually decreased to 3.5%, 3.2%, 3.3%, 3.3%, and 3.2% in the subsequent months of 2023.</li>
<li>Inflation rates remained stable for most items, excluding Fuel, Electricity, Water, and fresh vegetables, indicating the persistence of cost-push inflation.</li>
<li>In this insight, we analyze the recent quarterly performance of Yakult, Nissin, and Seven &amp; I, Japanese Consumer Staples companies discussed in our prior Smartkarma Original.</li>
</ul>


Japanese inflation, which peaked at 4.3% in January 2023, gradually decreased to 3.5%, 3.2%, 3.3%, 3.3%, and 3.2% in the subsequent months of 2023.
Inflation rates remained stable for most items, excluding Fuel, Electricity, Water, and fresh vegetables, indicating the persistence of cost-push inflation.
In this insight, we analyze the recent quarterly performance of Yakult, Nissin, and Seven &amp; I, Japanese Consumer Staples companies discussed in our prior Smartkarma Original.


Japan Consumer Staples Update: Inflation Looks a Blessing in Disguise for Those with Pricing Power

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota (7203 JP)</a> having sold some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive</a> this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


With Toyota (7203 JP) having sold some of its stake in Denso, KDDI and Harmonic Drive this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.
Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

<ul>
<li>Inflation, having peaked at 4.3% in January 2023, has been on a downward trend throughout the year, with figures dropping to 2.8% in November and further to 2.6% by December.</li>
<li>In this insight, we analyze the recent quarterly performance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yakult-honsha-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17153:1" rel="noopener">Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)</a>, Nissin, and Seven &amp; I, Japanese Consumer Staples companies discussed in our prior Smartkarma Original.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-foods-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12548:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Foods Holdings (2897 JP)</a> showcased excellent performance, Yakult and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> faced struggles in their recent quarters.</li>
</ul>


Inflation, having peaked at 4.3% in January 2023, has been on a downward trend throughout the year, with figures dropping to 2.8% in November and further to 2.6% by December.
In this insight, we analyze the recent quarterly performance of Yakult Honsha (2267 JP), Nissin, and Seven &amp; I, Japanese Consumer Staples companies discussed in our prior Smartkarma Original.
While Nissin Foods Holdings (2897 JP) showcased excellent performance, Yakult and Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) faced struggles in their recent quarters.


<ul>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamazaki-baking-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7658:1" rel="noopener">Yamazaki Baking (2212 JP)</a>'s recent surge has been impressive, consensus expectations are high for the upcoming quarter, despite yet another price hike in July 2023.</li>
<li>From a valuation perspective, we expect limited upside potential even if Yamazaki Baking surpasses consensus expectations.</li>
<li>Therefore, we believe that the risk-reward profile for maintaining a long position in Yamazaki Baking is currently not particularly attractive.</li>
</ul>


While Yamazaki Baking (2212 JP)'s recent surge has been impressive, consensus expectations are high for the upcoming quarter, despite yet another price hike in July 2023.
From a valuation perspective, we expect limited upside potential even if Yamazaki Baking surpasses consensus expectations.
Therefore, we believe that the risk-reward profile for maintaining a long position in Yamazaki Baking is currently not particularly attractive.


Yamazaki Baking: Breads & Buns Buonce But Valuation Is a Stalemate

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.</li>
<li>There is also a DOUBLE-capping event for Fast Retailing which on 8% outperformance could become a TRIPLE-capping event. For now, the trade is shaping up to be US$7bn a side.</li>
<li>There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX Methodology Rejig is an interesting problem set.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.
There is also a DOUBLE-capping event for Fast Retailing which on 8% outperformance could become a TRIPLE-capping event. For now, the trade is shaping up to be US$7bn a side.
There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX Methodology Rejig is an interesting problem set.


Quiddity Leaderboard Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: 2 IN, 2 OUT, $5.5bn+ Fastie to Sell, $7bn a Side

Japan

YAKULT HONSHA CO., LTD produces and sells fermented milk products, soft drinks and food products.  The Company also manufactures pharmaceutical and cosmetic products.  Through its subsidiary, the professional baseball team, Tokyo Yakult Swallows is owned and managed.

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Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)

Japan Consumer Staples Update: Inflation Looks a Blessing in Disguise for Those with Pricing Power

Japanese inflation peaked at 4.3% in January 2023 but decreased to 3.5%, 3.2%, 3.3%, 3.3%, and 3.2% in the following months. For most items except...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

Toyota, Toyota Industries and Denso are tag teaming to unwind some of their stake in Aisin, in a deal worth over US$1bn. While the timing of the...

Sumeet Singh

Japan Consumer Staples Update: Inflation Looks a Blessing in Disguise for Those with Pricing Power

Inflation in Japan has been on a decline over the year, reaching 2.6% in December 2023 after peaking at 4.3% twelve months prior.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Yamazaki Baking: Breads & Buns Buonce But Valuation Is a Stalemate

Yamazaki Baking's surging stock faces high expectations in 3Q23. With limited valuation upside, the risk-reward balance has tilted unfavorably for...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Quiddity Leaderboard Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: 2 IN, 2 OUT, $5.5bn+ Fastie to Sell, $7bn a Side

The March 2025 Nikkei 225 rebal has <8 weeks to go before it is set. ADDs and DELETEs are mostly decided. The bigger question is the capping of...

Travis Lundy

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