External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Even though we are trimming our FY22E net profit forecasts, we believe the sector has already bottomed out in 1Q23E, supported by: 1) decent YTD retail sales growth, 2) turn around in inventory level and retail discounts.</li><li>While we expect a more conservative FY23E guidance by the brands, we do see decent upside surprises from GP margin improvements, helped by better retail discounts and cheaper input costs, etc.</li><li>Therefore, for brands with a higher DTC mix, we believe brands like Anta (2020 HK) and Topsports (6110 HK) are going to outperform.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Even though we are trimming our FY22E net profit forecasts, we believe the sector has already bottomed out in 1Q23E, supported by: 1) decent YTD retail sales growth, 2) turn around in inventory level and retail discounts.While we expect a more conservative FY23E guidance by the brands, we do see decent upside surprises from GP margin improvements, helped by better retail discounts and cheaper input costs, etc.Therefore, for brands with a higher DTC mix, we believe brands like Anta (2020 HK) and Topsports (6110 HK) are going to outperform.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Sportswear Sector – We expect prudent guidance but decent margins

<ul><li>Maintained OUTPERFORM after our Shenzhen Consumer Tour.</li><li>We visited a number of companies (catering, hotel and sportswear brands) and experts (catering &amp; shopping mall operators) during our trip to Shenzhen this week.</li><li>This channel check has strengthened our OUTPERFORM view on the Consumer discretionary sector, backed by 3 trends</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintained OUTPERFORM after our Shenzhen Consumer Tour.We visited a number of companies (catering, hotel and sportswear brands) and experts (catering &amp; shopping mall operators) during our trip to Shenzhen this week.This channel check has strengthened our OUTPERFORM view on the Consumer discretionary sector, backed by 3 trendsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer Sector – Shenzhen Trip: sustained growth in Feb 2023

<ul><li>Remarkable recovery vs 4Q22, improving spending power and excellent sustainability.</li><li>We believe the data points during the 2023 Chinese New Year are better than our expectation and meaningfully encouraging for the consumer sector, because: 1) the base was high in 2022, as the number of COVID-19 cases were very limited during Jan-Feb 2022 and the number of passenger journeys already grew by 31% YoY</li><li>2) the improvement is significant vs 4Q22, supported by the 89%/ 73% recovery rate of domestic tourism volume/ spending during this CNY, better than 61%/ 44% in the 10-1 holidays and any level in the entire 2022 year,</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Remarkable recovery vs 4Q22, improving spending power and excellent sustainability.We believe the data points during the 2023 Chinese New Year are better than our expectation and meaningfully encouraging for the consumer sector, because: 1) the base was high in 2022, as the number of COVID-19 cases were very limited during Jan-Feb 2022 and the number of passenger journeys already grew by 31% YoY2) the improvement is significant vs 4Q22, supported by the 89%/ 73% recovery rate of domestic tourism volume/ spending during this CNY, better than 61%/ 44% in the 10-1 holidays and any level in the entire 2022 year,Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer Sector – Strong recovery and sustainability during CNY

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are impressed by the quick recovery of retail sales growth during CNY, even with high base last year.</li><li>Moreover, we do find FY23E guidance encouraging, hence we maintain BUY and revise up our TP to HK$11.52, based on a 21x FY23E P/E (which is 1 s.d. higher than the 5 years average of 15x, up from 19x given the turnaround) and its valuation is not too demanding at 17x FY23E P/E.</li><li>After the improvement in Dec 2022, a HSD drop vs mid-teen decline in Nov 2022, retail sales growth had further accelerated to 20%+ during the first 10 days of 2023 CNY season (vs same season last year), and the retail discounts also improved to just 25% to 30% off (about 1-2ppt better than last year).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are impressed by the quick recovery of retail sales growth during CNY, even with high base last year.Moreover, we do find FY23E guidance encouraging, hence we maintain BUY and revise up our TP to HK$11.52, based on a 21x FY23E P/E (which is 1 s.d. higher than the 5 years average of 15x, up from 19x given the turnaround) and its valuation is not too demanding at 17x FY23E P/E.After the improvement in Dec 2022, a HSD drop vs mid-teen decline in Nov 2022, retail sales growth had further accelerated to 20%+ during the first 10 days of 2023 CNY season (vs same season last year), and the retail discounts also improved to just 25% to 30% off (about 1-2ppt better than last year).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xtep (1368 HK) – Speedy recovery in CNY and robust guidance

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>With the recent rally in the equity markets in Hong Kong and China, we think the asset play investment thesis for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang Group Co (3818 HK)</a> has revived.  </li>
<li>We estimate its investment portfolio value may have increased by HK$2bn since end-Sep, yet market capitalisation only rose HK$500m, suggesting still significant 77% discount. </li>
<li>Encouraging recent developments at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> and Ant Financial, which both are its holdings, are positive. The reduction is losses for sportswear business is an added driver. </li>
</ul>


With the recent rally in the equity markets in Hong Kong and China, we think the asset play investment thesis for China Dongxiang Group Co (3818 HK) has revived.  
We estimate its investment portfolio value may have increased by HK$2bn since end-Sep, yet market capitalisation only rose HK$500m, suggesting still significant 77% discount. 
Encouraging recent developments at Alibaba Group (9988 HK) and Ant Financial, which both are its holdings, are positive. The reduction is losses for sportswear business is an added driver. 


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Extremely Deep Discount to Cash and Investments

China

Xtep International Holdings Ltd. designs, manufactures, and markets sportwear. The Company produces footwear, apparel, and accessories.

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Xtep International (1368 HK)

China Sportswear Sector – We expect prudent guidance but decent margins

While we expect a more conservative FY23E guidance by the brands, we do see decent upside surprises from GP margin improvements, helped by better...

CMB International

China Consumer Sector – Shenzhen Trip: sustained growth in Feb 2023

We visited a number of companies (catering, hotel and sportswear brands) and experts (catering & shopping mall operators) during our trip to...

CMB International

China Consumer Sector – Strong recovery and sustainability during CNY

We believe the data points during the 2023 Chinese New Year are better than our expectation and meaningfully encouraging for the consumer sector

CMB International

Xtep (1368 HK) – Speedy recovery in CNY and robust guidance

We are impressed by the quick recovery of retail sales growth during CNY, even with high base last year. Moreover, we do find FY23E guidance...

CMB International

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Extremely Deep Discount to Cash and Investments

Market rallies may have raised CNDX's cash and investment portfolio value by HK$2bn since end-Sep, but its market cap has only increased HK$500m,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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