HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>At the indicated price range, or 24.8-28.6x PER for FY22F and 16.7-19.2x for FY23F, the H-share IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp (601888 CH)</a> is not attractive enough. </li>
<li>2Q22 net profit is worse than it appears. Recent Sanya lockdown has wiped off half of the summer peak season which may even negatively affect demand during Golden Week.</li>
<li>Consensus forecasts are too optimistic and there may be another 15% downside. Given current macroenvironment, market volatility and earnings uncertainty, risk outweighs return even at the low-end of price range.</li>
</ul>


At the indicated price range, or 24.8-28.6x PER for FY22F and 16.7-19.2x for FY23F, the H-share IPO of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp (601888 CH) is not attractive enough. 
2Q22 net profit is worse than it appears. Recent Sanya lockdown has wiped off half of the summer peak season which may even negatively affect demand during Golden Week.
Consensus forecasts are too optimistic and there may be another 15% downside. Given current macroenvironment, market volatility and earnings uncertainty, risk outweighs return even at the low-end of price range.


CTG Duty Free (601888 CH) H-Share IPO: 2Q22/Outlook Updates and Valuation Views

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$2.5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, CDF had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal pricing and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$2.5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, CDF had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.
In this note, we talk about the deal pricing and run the deal through our ECM framework.


China Tourism Group A/H Listing - Discount Is Enticing at the Low-End

<ul>
<li>Giant Biogene (GB) aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


Giant Biogene (GB) aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.
GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Giant Biogene Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Co-Founders Have Already Cashed in US$1bn+

<ul>
<li>Giant Biogene (GB) aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


Giant Biogene (GB) aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.
GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Giant Biogene Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth and Juicy Margins

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding as of July  29th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, and China Mobile.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding as of July  29th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, and China Mobile.


Hong Kong Connect Flows: Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, China Mobile

China

Xtep International Holdings Ltd. designs, manufactures, and markets sportwear. The Company produces footwear, apparel, and accessories.

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Xtep International (1368 HK)

China Tourism Group A/H Listing - Discount Is Enticing at the Low-End

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$2.5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

Giant Biogene Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Co-Founders Have Already Cashed in US$1bn+

Giant Biogene (GB) aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. It is the largest recombinant collagen based products maker in China.

Sumeet Singh

Giant Biogene Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth and Juicy Margins

Giant Biogene aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. It is a leader in the recombinant collagen market in China.

Sumeet Singh

Hong Kong Connect Flows: Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, China Mobile

Inflows from mainland investors to Hong Kong stocks have been positive for the past 12 weeks. We highlight flows for Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CTG Duty Free (601888 CH) H-Share IPO: 2Q22/Outlook Updates and Valuation Views

We consider the indicated price range not attractive enough given current macroenvironment, market volatility and earnings uncertainty. Risk-return...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism Group A/H Listing - Discount Is Enticing at the Low-End

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$2.5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

Giant Biogene Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Co-Founders Have Already Cashed in US$1bn+

Giant Biogene (GB) aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. It is the largest recombinant collagen based products maker in China.

Sumeet Singh

Giant Biogene Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth and Juicy Margins

Giant Biogene aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. It is a leader in the recombinant collagen market in China.

Sumeet Singh

Hong Kong Connect Flows: Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, China Mobile

Inflows from mainland investors to Hong Kong stocks have been positive for the past 12 weeks. We highlight flows for Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM