External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Nine new-energy vehicle (NEV) brands including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their Jan 2023 sales volumes on 1 Feb 2023.</li><li>Sales volume of the nine brands combined rose 22% YoY (ranged from -86% to +449%) and dropped 42% MoM (ranged from -87% to -23%)</li><li>Li Auto beat, NIO and Xpeng miss. Li Auto delivered over 15,000 units in Jan 2023, exceeding some investors’ expectation.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Nine new-energy vehicle (NEV) brands including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their Jan 2023 sales volumes on 1 Feb 2023.Sales volume of the nine brands combined rose 22% YoY (ranged from -86% to +449%) and dropped 42% MoM (ranged from -87% to -23%)Li Auto beat, NIO and Xpeng miss. Li Auto delivered over 15,000 units in Jan 2023, exceeding some investors’ expectation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Jan NEV likely in line or slightly miss; Li Auto beat

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We project Xpeng’s 4Q22E net loss to narrow slightly QoQ to RMB 2.0bn, despite lower revenue and gross margin QoQ.</li><li>Although a similar level of operating loss could occur in FY23E versus FY22E on our estimates, we believe investors would focus more on Xpeng’s sales volume growth in FY23E, which is key to its longterm survival, as its RMB 35bn net cash position could still support Xpeng for 2- 3 years.</li><li>It is still difficult to quantify the improvement after the organizational structure and personnel changes, but the hard lesson learnt could make management more focused and cost cautious.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We project Xpeng’s 4Q22E net loss to narrow slightly QoQ to RMB 2.0bn, despite lower revenue and gross margin QoQ.Although a similar level of operating loss could occur in FY23E versus FY22E on our estimates, we believe investors would focus more on Xpeng’s sales volume growth in FY23E, which is key to its longterm survival, as its RMB 35bn net cash position could still support Xpeng for 2- 3 years.It is still difficult to quantify the improvement after the organizational structure and personnel changes, but the hard lesson learnt could make management more focused and cost cautious.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US) – 4Q22E Net Loss to Narrow; Sales as Key to FY23

<ul><li>Market reacts positively after Xpeng’s in-line 3Q22 earnings, as some investors may believe the worst is over for the company.</li><li>We are of the view that Xpeng still has a chance to turn around, as its RMB 35bn net cash position could support Xpeng for 2-3 years until Xpeng finds out a winning model.</li><li>Therefore, its three new models next year could be key catalysts.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Market reacts positively after Xpeng’s in-line 3Q22 earnings, as some investors may believe the worst is over for the company.We are of the view that Xpeng still has a chance to turn around, as its RMB 35bn net cash position could support Xpeng for 2-3 years until Xpeng finds out a winning model.Therefore, its three new models next year could be key catalysts.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US) – Short-term negatives have been priced in

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume, based on insurance data, rose 9% YoY to 1.86mn units in Sep 2022, 3% lower than our prior forecast.</li><li>Wholesale volume surged 33% YoY to 2.33mn units, 8% higher than our prior projection due to more inventories pushed to dealers than expected.</li><li>Almost 260,000 units of inventories were added into dealers in Sep 2022, the most in any Sep in history. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume, based on insurance data, rose 9% YoY to 1.86mn units in Sep 2022, 3% lower than our prior forecast.Wholesale volume surged 33% YoY to 2.33mn units, 8% higher than our prior projection due to more inventories pushed to dealers than expected.Almost 260,000 units of inventories were added into dealers in Sep 2022, the most in any Sep in history. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – 2H22E likely beat; FY23E consensus overstated

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Golden week data missed market’s already low expectation for all three major categories - property sales, domestic tourism spending and auto sales.</li><li>4Q is unlikely to be a big surprise as property and its supply chain (20-30% of GDP) will still be the major drag that could neutralize the still resilient auto and gradually recovering consumption.</li><li>Together with more market volatility from pandemic and CPC meeting, we recommend investors to avoid one-sided long or short, but focus on pair trade opportunities to play the difference of BtoC over BtoB as BtoB is more vulnerable in terms of bad debts and pricing power than BtoC amid weak macro.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Golden week data missed market’s already low expectation for all three major categories - property sales, domestic tourism spending and auto sales.4Q is unlikely to be a big surprise as property and its supply chain (20-30% of GDP) will still be the major drag that could neutralize the still resilient auto and gradually recovering consumption.Together with more market volatility from pandemic and CPC meeting, we recommend investors to avoid one-sided long or short, but focus on pair trade opportunities to play the difference of BtoC over BtoB as BtoB is more vulnerable in terms of bad debts and pricing power than BtoC amid weak macro.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cross sector report – Post-Golden Week: More positive on BToC recovery potential; Cautious on BToB

China

XPeng Inc. designs, produces, and distributes electric vehicles. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets smart smart electric vehicles, as well as finance, parts, and maintenance services. XPeng serves customers in China.

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XPeng (XPEV US)

China Auto Sector – Jan NEV likely in line or slightly miss; Li Auto beat

Nine new-energy vehicle (NEV) brands including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their Jan 2023 sales volumes on...

CMB International

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US) – 4Q22E Net Loss to Narrow; Sales as Key to FY23

Although a similar level of operating loss could occur in FY23E versus FY22E on our estimates, we believe investors would focus more on Xpeng’s...

CMB International

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US) – Short-term negatives have been priced in

Market reacts positively after Xpeng’s in-line 3Q22 earnings, as some investors may believe the worst is over for the company.

CMB International

China Auto Sector – 2H22E likely beat; FY23E consensus overstated

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume, based on insurance data, rose 9% YoY to 1.86mn units in Sep 2022, 3% lower than our prior...

CMB International

Cross sector report – Post-Golden Week: More positive on BToC recovery potential; Cautious on BToB

Golden week data missed market’s already low expectation for all three major categories - property sales, domestic tourism spending and auto sales.

CMB International

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