Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In a surprise move, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14210:1" rel="noopener">Genting Bhd (GENT MK)</a> - or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3141:1" rel="noopener">Genting Malaysia (GENM MK)</a> - has joined the six incumbents in bidding for new casino licences in Macau.</li>
<li>The bidding process follows Macau's record low monthly gaming revenue in July after casinos were closed for 12 days in response to a Covid outbreak.</li>
<li>Casinos have re-opened, yet there is little to cheer about as business remains muted. The six winners are expected to be announced by the end of November or early December.</li>
</ul>


In a surprise move, Genting Bhd (GENT MK) - or Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) - has joined the six incumbents in bidding for new casino licences in Macau.
The bidding process follows Macau's record low monthly gaming revenue in July after casinos were closed for 12 days in response to a Covid outbreak.
Casinos have re-opened, yet there is little to cheer about as business remains muted. The six winners are expected to be announced by the end of November or early December.


Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input. </li>
<li>The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.</li>
<li>This week we flag: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts</li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input. 
The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.
This week we flag: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts


Solvency Risk Short Candidates: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts

<ul>
<li>Into the final straight. Victoria and NSW have signed off on Blackstone’s proposed acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Gaming regulatory approval from Western Australia remains outstanding, but this is done. Crown's conduct in WA was no better - or worse - than it was in Victoria and NSW.</li>
<li>Trading super tight with potentially another month or so until payment.</li>
</ul>


Into the final straight. Victoria and NSW have signed off on Blackstone’s proposed acquisition of Crown Resorts (CWN AU).
Gaming regulatory approval from Western Australia remains outstanding, but this is done. Crown's conduct in WA was no better - or worse - than it was in Victoria and NSW.
Trading super tight with potentially another month or so until payment.


Crown Resorts: Regulatory Approvals Falling Into Place

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a>'s Scheme Booklet is now <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02504351-3A590725?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 29 April with possible implementation on the 12 May.  </li>
<li>The Independent Expert has concluded Blackstone's Offer is fair and reasonable and in the best interest of Crown shareholders.</li>
<li>This transaction is a done deal, and is trading accordingly.</li>
</ul>



Crown Resorts (CWN AU)'s Scheme Booklet is now out. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 29 April with possible implementation on the 12 May.  
The Independent Expert has concluded Blackstone's Offer is fair and reasonable and in the best interest of Crown shareholders.
This transaction is a done deal, and is trading accordingly.


Crown Resorts: Scheme Booklet Lodged. Shareholder Meeting On 29 April

<ul>
<li>The Perth Casino Royal Commission has found <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a>'s casino in Perth, Western Australia, is "not suitable" to hold a gaming licence.</li>
<li>This follows the findings in New South Wales and Victoria that two of Crown Resort’s other subsidiaries were either not suitable to be granted a casino license or not suitable.</li>
<li>As with the recently announced AUSTRAC proceedings, Blackstone would have been well prepared for this latest development.</li>
</ul>


The Perth Casino Royal Commission has found Crown Resorts (CWN AU)'s casino in Perth, Western Australia, is "not suitable" to hold a gaming licence.
This follows the findings in New South Wales and Victoria that two of Crown Resort’s other subsidiaries were either not suitable to be granted a casino license or not suitable.
As with the recently announced AUSTRAC proceedings, Blackstone would have been well prepared for this latest development.


No Surprise As Perth Royal Commission Finds Crown Resorts Unsuitable for WA Licence

United States

Wynn Resorts, Limited owns and operates luxury hotels and destination casino resorts in Las Vegas, Nevada, Macau, and China. The Company offers amenities such as guest rooms and suites, restaurants, golf course, and an on-site luxury automotive dealership.

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Wynn Resorts (WYNN US)

Genting Fancies A Flutter In Macau

Macau's China-like, zero-Covid policy affords limited visibility. In contrast, Singapore reported its highest gaming revenue quarter - April-June -...

David Blennerhassett

Solvency Risk Short Candidates: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts

This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows. This week we flag: Fastly, Affirm...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Crown Resorts: Regulatory Approvals Falling Into Place

This transaction is done. Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 0.7%/8.7%, assuming payment in around a month. Unless you want to lock in a ~1%...

David Blennerhassett

Crown Resorts: Scheme Booklet Lodged. Shareholder Meeting On 29 April

This transaction is done. Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 2.7%/25.8%. This remains a buy here and on any weakness.

David Blennerhassett

No Surprise As Perth Royal Commission Finds Crown Resorts Unsuitable for WA Licence

I still consider this Offer as being done. Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 5.4%/21%, assuming mid-June payment. This remains a buy.

David Blennerhassett

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