HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Li Ge has begun increasing his holdings, but we’re not sure whether this move is really confident about the prospects of WuXi Bio, or another buy low sell high/capital operation.</li>
<li>The actual situation of WuXi Bio is not necessarily optimistic. Due to geopolitical risks, WuXi Bio has to start striving for more domestic orders. However, price reduction seems inevitable.</li>
<li>Although WuXi Bio released optimistic expectations for 2024 project number/outlook, there may be another announcement of lower-than-expected performance in the future,which would be a devastating blow to investors’ confidence/management's credibility.</li>
</ul>


Li Ge has begun increasing his holdings, but we’re not sure whether this move is really confident about the prospects of WuXi Bio, or another buy low sell high/capital operation.
The actual situation of WuXi Bio is not necessarily optimistic. Due to geopolitical risks, WuXi Bio has to start striving for more domestic orders. However, price reduction seems inevitable.
Although WuXi Bio released optimistic expectations for 2024 project number/outlook, there may be another announcement of lower-than-expected performance in the future,which would be a devastating blow to investors’ confidence/management's credibility.


Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) - The Latest Updates Related to 2024 Performance Worth the Attention

<ul>
<li>WuXi Bio's 24H1 performance is disappointing. Since XDC has become new growth driver for WuXi Bio, why continue to invest in WuXi Bio instead of directly investing in WuXi XDC?</li>
<li>Production capacity expansion is aggressive, with high personnel salaries/cost pressure. Without sustained growth in high-margin orders, WuXi Bio's profitability will continue to decline. Gross margin may not bounce back quickly.</li>
<li>The mid-to-late stage order increment in US would be dominated by Japanese/Korean CXO. Without a definitive long-term logic, valuation cannot return to previous highs. Any rebound is difficult to sustain.</li>
</ul>


WuXi Bio's 24H1 performance is disappointing. Since XDC has become new growth driver for WuXi Bio, why continue to invest in WuXi Bio instead of directly investing in WuXi XDC?
Production capacity expansion is aggressive, with high personnel salaries/cost pressure. Without sustained growth in high-margin orders, WuXi Bio's profitability will continue to decline. Gross margin may not bounce back quickly.
The mid-to-late stage order increment in US would be dominated by Japanese/Korean CXO. Without a definitive long-term logic, valuation cannot return to previous highs. Any rebound is difficult to sustain.


Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) 24H1 - The Best Semi-Annual Report for the Next Three Years?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Wuxi Bio reported 1H24 revenue of RMB8.57bn, up 1.0% YoY, and adjusted attributable net income of RMB2.25bn, down 20.7% YoY.</li><li>1H24 revenue and adjusted attributable net income accounted for 47.9% and 44.5% of our full-year forecasts, moderately higher than the historical levels.</li><li>If excluding COVID revenue, total revenue in 1H24 would increase by 7.7% YoY, while revenue from late-stage and CMO projects would grow by 11.7% YoY. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Wuxi Bio reported 1H24 revenue of RMB8.57bn, up 1.0% YoY, and adjusted attributable net income of RMB2.25bn, down 20.7% YoY.1H24 revenue and adjusted attributable net income accounted for 47.9% and 44.5% of our full-year forecasts, moderately higher than the historical levels.If excluding COVID revenue, total revenue in 1H24 would increase by 7.7% YoY, while revenue from late-stage and CMO projects would grow by 11.7% YoY. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) - Robust Performance in a Challenging Environment

<ul>
<li>According to WuXi Bio’s management, the Company’s growth in 23H1 would be challenging. That is to say, investors don’t need to expect too much from the semi-annual report.</li>
<li>Based on "hedge logic" of CXO, AD drugs cannot bring about the prosperity of entire CXO industry as COVID-19 vaccines/drugs did.But WuXi Bio would be beneficiary if receiving large orders.</li>
<li>We are not sure where the bottom of share price is, because shareholders could continue to reduce their holdings and CXO’s valuation has not reached the inflection point.</li>
</ul>


According to WuXi Bio’s management, the Company’s growth in 23H1 would be challenging. That is to say, investors don’t need to expect too much from the semi-annual report.
Based on "hedge logic" of CXO, AD drugs cannot bring about the prosperity of entire CXO industry as COVID-19 vaccines/drugs did.But WuXi Bio would be beneficiary if receiving large orders.
We are not sure where the bottom of share price is, because shareholders could continue to reduce their holdings and CXO’s valuation has not reached the inflection point.


Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) - Some New Business Updates and the Outlook

<ul>
<li>WuXi Bio’s profit was disappointing.The 41 new orders added last December were small orders, which cannot contribute decent revenue/profits.The goal of gross margin to reach 45% by 2026 seems challenging.</li>
<li>The management has become more cautious in its guidance for 2024. 2024H1’s performance could be disappointing. The key is to see whether the performance in 2024 full-year would meet expectations.</li>
<li>Due to BIOSECURE Act, foreign CXOs are planning to seize WuXi Bio’s market share. We are not sure whether Europe (the US’s ally), will follow suit and enact similar legislation.</li>
</ul>


WuXi Bio’s profit was disappointing.The 41 new orders added last December were small orders, which cannot contribute decent revenue/profits.The goal of gross margin to reach 45% by 2026 seems challenging.
The management has become more cautious in its guidance for 2024. 2024H1’s performance could be disappointing. The key is to see whether the performance in 2024 full-year would meet expectations.
Due to BIOSECURE Act, foreign CXOs are planning to seize WuXi Bio’s market share. We are not sure whether Europe (the US’s ally), will follow suit and enact similar legislation.


Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) - The Crisis Is Not Over

China

WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc. is a leading open-access R&D capability and technology platform company serving the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries, with operations in China, U.S., and Iceland.  We provide a broad and integrated portfolio of laboratory and manufacturing services throughout the drug and medical device R&D process.  Our services are designed to help our global partners in shortening the cycle and lowering the cost of drug and medical device R&D through cost-effective and efficient solutions. 

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Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)