Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Midea Group (300 HK) IPO is being offered at a price range of HK$52-54.8/share, a discount of 20.9%-25% to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group</a>. That will raise US$3.28bn-US$3.46bn for the company.</li>
<li>Midea Group (300 HK) will not get Fast Entry to the HSCI but will be added to Southbound Stock Connect on 14 October once the price stabilisation period has ended.</li>
<li>Midea Group (300 HK) should get Fast Entry to one global index and that could lead to inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> too.</li>
</ul>


The Midea Group (300 HK) IPO is being offered at a price range of HK$52-54.8/share, a discount of 20.9%-25% to Midea Group. That will raise US$3.28bn-US$3.46bn for the company.
Midea Group (300 HK) will not get Fast Entry to the HSCI but will be added to Southbound Stock Connect on 14 October once the price stabilisation period has ended.
Midea Group (300 HK) should get Fast Entry to one global index and that could lead to inclusion in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) too.


Midea Group (300 HK): IPO Open Now; Upcoming Index Flows

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was a net seller the prior week for HK$1.5bn, the first week in 29 where SB was a net seller. It was all ETFs. Stocks were a net buy.</li>
<li>This week, they reverted to net buying. Financials and Utilities were strong net buys. ETFs again a net sell. Total SOUTHBOUND volumes also picked up. </li>
<li>SOEs, SOE Banks, Energy, Utilities, and finally <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> saw net buying after salutary earnings.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was a net seller the prior week for HK$1.5bn, the first week in 29 where SB was a net seller. It was all ETFs. Stocks were a net buy.
This week, they reverted to net buying. Financials and Utilities were strong net buys. ETFs again a net sell. Total SOUTHBOUND volumes also picked up. 
SOEs, SOE Banks, Energy, Utilities, and finally Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) saw net buying after salutary earnings.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 30 Aug 2024); Weak Econ Data, But a Rebound in SB Net Buys

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>WuXi XDC’s YoY revenue growth rate fell to double-digit while it was kept triple-digit growth rate in previous periods. How much revenue generated from backlog isn’t within WuXi XDC’s control. </li>
<li>The significance of healthy growth of the global ADC market is that the good story of ADC CXO is able to continue. So, WuXi XDC’s short-term performance growth is guaranteed.</li>
<li>The establishment of an independent biopharmaceutical supply chain based on US national security concerns is inevitable. So, WuXi XDC’s stock price performance is more influenced by geopolitical conflicts than fundamentals. </li>
</ul>


WuXi XDC’s YoY revenue growth rate fell to double-digit while it was kept triple-digit growth rate in previous periods. How much revenue generated from backlog isn’t within WuXi XDC’s control. 
The significance of healthy growth of the global ADC market is that the good story of ADC CXO is able to continue. So, WuXi XDC’s short-term performance growth is guaranteed.
The establishment of an independent biopharmaceutical supply chain based on US national security concerns is inevitable. So, WuXi XDC’s stock price performance is more influenced by geopolitical conflicts than fundamentals. 


WuXi XDC Cayman (2268.HK) 24H1- High Growth of ADC Market Ensures Investment Logic, but Risks Remain

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Medtide relies heavily on limited number of customers to contribute performance. If there is any significant reduction in demand by its major customers, Medtide’s performance growth would be materially/adversely affected.</li>
<li>Due to geopolitical conflicts, pharmaceutical companies are becoming more cautious about their reliance on China CXO. So, the development of Medtide’s overseas business would become more uncertain in this context.</li>
<li>Medtide's business scale is still small and its position in the global peptide CXO industry is not as strong as described. Valuation of Medtide should be lower than peers.</li>
</ul>


Medtide relies heavily on limited number of customers to contribute performance. If there is any significant reduction in demand by its major customers, Medtide’s performance growth would be materially/adversely affected.
Due to geopolitical conflicts, pharmaceutical companies are becoming more cautious about their reliance on China CXO. So, the development of Medtide’s overseas business would become more uncertain in this context.
Medtide's business scale is still small and its position in the global peptide CXO industry is not as strong as described. Valuation of Medtide should be lower than peers.


Pre-IPO Medtide - The Industry, the Business and the Concerns

Livzon Pharmaceutical Group In / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With rising COVID-19 cases, a pandemic outbreak in late 2024 is likely. Investors should focus on related sectors and stocks again.</li>
<li>Due to BIOSECURE Act, US companies are leaving Chinese partners.If Trump is elected, his sanctions on China's supply chain may intensify. So, there should be “valuation discount” for China CXOs.</li>
<li>Livzon may have negative YoY revenue growth in 24H1, but full-year revenue may have positive low single-digit YoY growth. Due to good dividend/repurchase policy, Livzon deserves more patience from investors.</li>
</ul>


With rising COVID-19 cases, a pandemic outbreak in late 2024 is likely. Investors should focus on related sectors and stocks again.
Due to BIOSECURE Act, US companies are leaving Chinese partners.If Trump is elected, his sanctions on China's supply chain may intensify. So, there should be “valuation discount” for China CXOs.
Livzon may have negative YoY revenue growth in 24H1, but full-year revenue may have positive low single-digit YoY growth. Due to good dividend/repurchase policy, Livzon deserves more patience from investors.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.18)- COVID Is Here, BIOSECURE Act Update, Livzon Deserves More Patience

China

WuXi AppTec Co., Ltd. manufactures medical products. The Company produces biological agents, antibodies, biological diagnostic reagents, and other products. WuXi AppTec also provides biological analysis, technical study, and other services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)

Midea Group (300 HK): IPO Open Now; Upcoming Index Flows

Midea Group is offering the H-shares at a 20.9-25% discount to the A-shares and is expected to list on 17 Sep. The H-shares could get Fast Entry to...

Brian Freitas

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 30 Aug 2024); Weak Econ Data, But a Rebound in SB Net Buys

SOUTHBOUND Connect flows picked up to the positive side again after the buy streak was broken the week before. Gross flows picked up. Econ data was...

Travis Lundy

WuXi XDC Cayman (2268.HK) 24H1- High Growth of ADC Market Ensures Investment Logic, but Risks Remain

Global ADC market growth ensures short-term performance stability,but WuXi XDC faces challenges due to factors beyond its control.Geopolitical...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Medtide - The Industry, the Business and the Concerns

Medtide's growth is at risk due to high reliance on limited customers, uncertainty in overseas business and lower-than-expected position in global...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.18)- COVID Is Here, BIOSECURE Act Update, Livzon Deserves More Patience

COVID is coming again. So investors can focus on related stocks. US companies leaving Chinese partners due to BIOSECURE Act. Livzon is still worth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Midea Group (300 HK): IPO Open Now; Upcoming Index Flows

Midea Group is offering the H-shares at a 20.9-25% discount to the A-shares and is expected to list on 17 Sep. The H-shares could get Fast Entry to...

Brian Freitas

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 30 Aug 2024); Weak Econ Data, But a Rebound in SB Net Buys

SOUTHBOUND Connect flows picked up to the positive side again after the buy streak was broken the week before. Gross flows picked up. Econ data was...

Travis Lundy

WuXi XDC Cayman (2268.HK) 24H1- High Growth of ADC Market Ensures Investment Logic, but Risks Remain

​Global ADC market growth ensures short-term performance stability,but WuXi XDC faces challenges due to factors beyond its control.Geopolitical...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Medtide - The Industry, the Business and the Concerns

​Medtide's growth is at risk due to high reliance on limited customers, uncertainty in overseas business and lower-than-expected position in global...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.18)- COVID Is Here, BIOSECURE Act Update, Livzon Deserves More Patience

COVID is coming again. So investors can focus on related stocks. US companies leaving Chinese partners due to BIOSECURE Act. Livzon is still worth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Global ADC market growth ensures short-term performance stability,but WuXi XDC faces challenges due to factors beyond its control.Geopolitical...

Medtide's growth is at risk due to high reliance on limited customers, uncertainty in overseas business and lower-than-expected position in global...