Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>As the world’s 3rd largest manufacturer and retailer of private brand retailing after Inditex and H&amp;M, Fast Retailing focuses on providing high quality products at a comparatively low price. The company owns brands such as UNIQLO, GU, Theory, Comptoir des Cotonniers, Princesse tam.tam and J Brand, and opened its first store in Japan in 1984. After opening their first international UNIQLO store in the UK in 2001, UNIQLO International is now the company’s largest revenue generator, with stores in Greater China, South East Asia, Oceania, and North America. The company’s business model as a SPA (Specialty store retailer of Private label Apparel) has been refined to control the entire business process, from the planning and designing of clothes until their sale. Some of Fast Retailing’s popular and unique inventions include HEATTECH products and Ultra-Light Down Jackets and vests.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/068/original/16.png?1569541105" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100068"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Company disclosures</div><p>The company operates under four segments: UNIQLO Japan, UNIQLO International, Global Brands, and GU. The contribution from each segment in FY18 was as follows:</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/069/original/17.png?1569541157" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100069"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Company disclosures</div><p>Revenues in FY18 amounted to ¥2,130.1bn, with the company experiencing revenue growth at a CAGR of 13.5% over the past five years of 2013-2018. <br>We expect the revenues of Fast Retailing to grow at a CAGR of 10.8% over the next five years, through the improved performance of existing stores and new store additions. We expect EBIT to grow at a CAGR of 14.0% (margin improvement of 1.7% points).</p>

As the world’s 3rd largest manufacturer and retailer of private brand retailing after Inditex and H&amp;M, Fast Retailing focuses on providing high quality products at a comparatively low price. The company owns brands such as UNIQLO, GU, Theory, Comptoir des Cotonniers, Princesse tam.tam and J Brand, and opened its first store in Japan in 1984. After opening their first international UNIQLO store in the UK in 2001, UNIQLO International is now the company’s largest revenue generator, with stores in Greater China, South East Asia, Oceania, and North America. The company’s business model as a SPA (Specialty store retailer of Private label Apparel) has been refined to control the entire business process, from the planning and designing of clothes until their sale. Some of Fast Retailing’s popular and unique inventions include HEATTECH products and Ultra-Light Down Jackets and vests.Source: Company disclosuresThe company operates under four segments: UNIQLO Japan, UNIQLO International, Global Brands, and GU. The contribution from each segment in FY18 was as follows:Source: Company disclosuresRevenues in FY18 amounted to ¥2,130.1bn, with the company experiencing revenue growth at a CAGR of 13.5% over the past five years of 2013-2018.  We expect the revenues of Fast Retailing to grow at a CAGR of 10.8% over the next five years, through the improved performance of existing stores and new store additions. We expect EBIT to grow at a CAGR of 14.0% (margin improvement of 1.7% points).

Fast Retailing: Unique Value Proposition of Uniqlo Combining Two Sets of Customers

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><em><strong>The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector results for 2018-19 giving investors a quick overview of the strengths and weaknesses in the sector as well as highlighting key winners and losers by sales growth and profit. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-retail-highlights-2018-19-sector-by-sector-and-winners-in-each-sector" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In an accompanying Insight, we provide snapshot reviews of each sector to give investors quick guides to seach retail sector's strengths and weaknesses.</a></strong></em></p>
<p>Leading retailers grew sales and share last year and made more money too. Although savings rates rose to their highest level ever in 2018, this also meant that a lot of households had money stored up, providing better retailers and brands with an opportunity to convince them to spend some of it.</p>
<p>Many formats and sectors had a good year including convenience stores, discount chains, drugstores, speciality chains such as in fashion and even consumer electronics (at least for now), but some also contracted, notably GMS chains and department stores.</p>
<p>Retailing also became more profitable last year, up 6% on average for the top 250 retailers, and is expected to grow profits further on the back of new technologies wrought by the pressures of the labour shortage. However, profit growth is slowing as competition increases across different formats.</p>

The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector results for 2018-19 giving investors a quick overview of the strengths and weaknesses in the sector as well as highlighting key winners and losers by sales growth and profit. In an accompanying Insight, we provide snapshot reviews of each sector to give investors quick guides to seach retail sector's strengths and weaknesses.
Leading retailers grew sales and share last year and made more money too. Although savings rates rose to their highest level ever in 2018, this also meant that a lot of households had money stored up, providing better retailers and brands with an opportunity to convince them to spend some of it.
Many formats and sectors had a good year including convenience stores, discount chains, drugstores, speciality chains such as in fashion and even consumer electronics (at least for now), but some also contracted, notably GMS chains and department stores.
Retailing also became more profitable last year, up 6% on average for the top 250 retailers, and is expected to grow profits further on the back of new technologies wrought by the pressures of the labour shortage. However, profit growth is slowing as competition increases across different formats.

Japan Retail Review and Ranking 2018-19: Profit Growth Slowing as Competition Increases

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a> started out as a niche brand for the true mountain devotee but is <strong>fast emerging as a lifestyle brand for outdoor lovers and urbanites alike</strong>.</p>
<p>Marrying Japanese technical skills and quality with a backstory of mountain derring-do, Snow Peak has big ambitions to expand its 225 store network further in Japan and<strong> become a major brand overseas too</strong>.</p>
<p>While margins fell putting the company into the red two years ago, the success of new products and services led to <strong>a 22% increase in sales and a return to profit last year</strong>.</p>
<p>Longer-term, the global potential for a Japanese brand mixing precision manufacturing, high quality and lifestyle design is clear and, so far, Snow Peak is doing all the right things to take its place alongside brands like Patagonia.</p>

Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) started out as a niche brand for the true mountain devotee but is fast emerging as a lifestyle brand for outdoor lovers and urbanites alike.
Marrying Japanese technical skills and quality with a backstory of mountain derring-do, Snow Peak has big ambitions to expand its 225 store network further in Japan and become a major brand overseas too.
While margins fell putting the company into the red two years ago, the success of new products and services led to a 22% increase in sales and a return to profit last year.
Longer-term, the global potential for a Japanese brand mixing precision manufacturing, high quality and lifestyle design is clear and, so far, Snow Peak is doing all the right things to take its place alongside brands like Patagonia.

Snow Peak (7816 JP): A Japanese Outdoor Success Story

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE</strong> • </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/226/original/2019-06-13_16-47-07.png?1560412038" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90226"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>INTRODUCTION </strong>- The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at<strong> +4</strong> &amp; <strong>-2</strong> and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldwin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:410:1">Goldwin (8111 JP)</a> has the distinction of being one of only two large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' since that time.</p><p><strong>This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/196/original/2019-06-13_11-15-27.png?1560392157" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90196"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>STATISTICS</strong> - Currently, of the 3,832 listed companies for which daily RPS data is available, 94 companies are 'Overbought', and 131 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively of the total. For the 758 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 50 'Overbought' and 18 'Oversold' companies, 6.6% and 5.0%, respectively. As noted the companion Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-june-relative-price-scores-market-sectors-peer-groups-more-of-the-same" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30323">🇯🇵 Japan • June Relative Price Scores: Market, Sectors &amp; Peer Groups - More of The Same</a>, these numbers and percentages are unusual and were last seen in the Japanese market in 2000. </p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE TOPS •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/202/original/2019-06-13_13-06-49.png?1560398835" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90202"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RPS 'TOPS'</strong> - In the last two years, 444 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 43 days. 1.4% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 96 companies and 75 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1">Descente (8114 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alfresa-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10610:1">Alfresa (2784 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/320" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1">FamilyMart Uny (8028 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kikkoman-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11720:1">Kikkoman (2801 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobayashi-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14930:1">Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (4967 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eiken-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12675:1">Eiken Chemical (4549 JP)</a>.  </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/201/original/2019-06-13_13-04-38.png?1560398780" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90201"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/203/original/2019-06-13_13-08-46.png?1560398945" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90203"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/204/original/2019-06-13_13-09-37.png?1560399049" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90204"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/205/original/2019-06-13_13-12-01.png?1560399142" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90205"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/316/original/2019-06-15_19-45-47.png?1560595558" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90316"></figure><p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div><p><strong>RPS 'BOTTOMS'</strong> - 372 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 61 days. 1.5% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 85 companies and 89 days. A recent example of positive RPS mean reversion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/k-o-energy-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17701:1">K&amp;O Energy (1663 JP)</a>.</p><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/207/original/2019-06-13_13-14-03.png?1560399270" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90207"></figure><p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the <strong>DETAIL </strong>section below, we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.</p></div>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • Source: Japan AnalyticsINTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. Goldwin (8111 JP) has the distinction of being one of only two large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' since that time.This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.Source: Japan AnalyticsSTATISTICS - Currently, of the 3,832 listed companies for which daily RPS data is available, 94 companies are 'Overbought', and 131 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively of the total. For the 758 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 50 'Overbought' and 18 'Oversold' companies, 6.6% and 5.0%, respectively. As noted the companion Insight, 🇯🇵 Japan • June Relative Price Scores: Market, Sectors &amp; Peer Groups - More of The Same, these numbers and percentages are unusual and were last seen in the Japanese market in 2000. • RELATIVE PRICE SCORE TOPS •Source: Japan AnalyticsRPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 444 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 43 days. 1.4% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 96 companies and 75 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been Descente (8114 JP), Alfresa (2784 JP), FamilyMart Uny (8028 JP), Kikkoman (2801 JP), Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (4967 JP), and Eiken Chemical (4549 JP).  
Source: Japan Analytics
RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 372 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 61 days. 1.5% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 85 companies and 89 days. A recent example of positive RPS mean reversion is K&amp;O Energy (1663 JP).
Source: Japan Analytics
In the DETAIL section below, we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.

🇯🇵 Japan • Relative Price Scores - Overbought & Oversold Companies - June 2019

<p>Japanese wages and salaries finally began to rise in 2017, and consumption expenditure picked up in 2018 but, at the same time, consumer confidence began to dip as households became increasingly wary about the appearance of long threatened price inflation.</p><p>When prices did begin to rise in mid- to late-2018, and with a second consumption tax hike due in later 2019, households at all income levels began to put their newly increased incomes into savings rather than into retailer’s cash registers.</p><p>As a result, Japanese households have plenty of money to spend when the enticement is right, especially when retailers offer originality, variety and value, providing plenty of support for the best of the consumer sector going forward. Luxury brands in Japan are having some of their best years ever and retailers offering real value – at all price points – are also being rewarded.</p>

Japanese wages and salaries finally began to rise in 2017, and consumption expenditure picked up in 2018 but, at the same time, consumer confidence began to dip as households became increasingly wary about the appearance of long threatened price inflation.When prices did begin to rise in mid- to late-2018, and with a second consumption tax hike due in later 2019, households at all income levels began to put their newly increased incomes into savings rather than into retailer’s cash registers.As a result, Japanese households have plenty of money to spend when the enticement is right, especially when retailers offer originality, variety and value, providing plenty of support for the best of the consumer sector going forward. Luxury brands in Japan are having some of their best years ever and retailers offering real value – at all price points – are also being rewarded.

Japan Consumption Trends: Lots of Savings for Good Brands and Retailers to Tap Into

Japan

WORKMAN CO., LTD. designs, produces, and retails work uniforms and related goods including work gloves and safety shoes.  The Company operates its own stores and franchise stores located throughout eastern Japan.

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Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP)

Fast Retailing: Unique Value Proposition of Uniqlo Combining Two Sets of Customers

As the world’s 3rd largest manufacturer and retailer of private brand retailing after Inditex and H&M, Fast Retailing focuses on providing high...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Retail Review and Ranking 2018-19: Profit Growth Slowing as Competition Increases

The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector results for 2018-19 giving investors a quick overview of the strengths and weaknesses in...

Michael Causton

Snow Peak (7816 JP): A Japanese Outdoor Success Story

Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) started out as a niche brand for the true mountain devotee but is fast emerging as a lifestyle brand for outdoor lovers and...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 Japan • Relative Price Scores - Overbought & Oversold Companies - June 2019

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • INTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Consumption Trends: Lots of Savings for Good Brands and Retailers to Tap Into

Japanese wages and salaries finally began to rise in 2017, and consumption expenditure picked up in 2018 but, at the same time, consumer confidence...

Michael Causton

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