Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After the market close on 14 February, KB Financial announced that The Carlyle Group is trying to sell a 1.2% stake in the company through a block deal sale. </li>
<li>The expected block deal price range is 64,608 won to 65,954 won per share, representing a 2 to 4% discount to the closing price of 67,300 won on 14 February. </li>
<li>We would pass on this block deal sale. Despite excellent gains so far YTD, there is looming risk of many investors that may bail out of KB Financial post ex-dividend.</li>
</ul>


After the market close on 14 February, KB Financial announced that The Carlyle Group is trying to sell a 1.2% stake in the company through a block deal sale. 
The expected block deal price range is 64,608 won to 65,954 won per share, representing a 2 to 4% discount to the closing price of 67,300 won on 14 February. 
We would pass on this block deal sale. Despite excellent gains so far YTD, there is looming risk of many investors that may bail out of KB Financial post ex-dividend.


Carlyle Group Selling More than 320 Billion Won Worth of KB Financial in a Block Deal Sale

<ul>
<li>The change in the dividend payment system in Korea in 2024 is likely to result in some attractive <strong>"double dividends"</strong> opportunities.</li>
<li>According to the Korea Exchange, there are seven stocks that have changed their dividend record dates policy last year and also that pay quarterly dividends. </li>
<li>Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) (common) provides a dividend yield of 5.8% and Hyundai Motor (005385 KS) (pref) provides a dividend yield of 9.6% at current prices.</li>
</ul>


The change in the dividend payment system in Korea in 2024 is likely to result in some attractive "double dividends" opportunities.
According to the Korea Exchange, there are seven stocks that have changed their dividend record dates policy last year and also that pay quarterly dividends. 
Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) (common) provides a dividend yield of 5.8% and Hyundai Motor (005385 KS) (pref) provides a dividend yield of 9.6% at current prices.


Timing of Double Dividends Opportunities in Korea

<ul>
<li>The total amount of share cancellations by Korean companies increased sharply in the past three years. Share cancellations of 6.1 trillion won in 2023 represented a 140% increase from 2021.</li>
<li>Although the total amount of share cancellations of 6.1 trillion won in 2023 seems fairly large, this represented only 0.24% of total market caps of Korean companies. </li>
<li>We also provide a list of seven Korean companies that have been targeted by activist investors  to cancel more shares and improve corporate governance. </li>
</ul>


The total amount of share cancellations by Korean companies increased sharply in the past three years. Share cancellations of 6.1 trillion won in 2023 represented a 140% increase from 2021.
Although the total amount of share cancellations of 6.1 trillion won in 2023 seems fairly large, this represented only 0.24% of total market caps of Korean companies. 
We also provide a list of seven Korean companies that have been targeted by activist investors  to cancel more shares and improve corporate governance. 


A 140% Increase in Share Cancellations by Korean Companies from 2021 to 2023

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>The data is crucial for year-end dividend arbitrage. We can strategically target Single-stock futures' spread basis widening due to information timeliness disparities, focusing on companies with high dividend yields.</li>
<li>Furthermore, it offers valuable insights into assessing the December-March spread levels, potentially leading to a rollover distortion in KOSPI 200 futures' calendar spread trading.</li>
<li>Postponed yearend dividend record dates to March may clash with first-quarter dividends, offering a new trading opportunity. this unique situation could significantly impact spot and futures prices.</li>
</ul>


The data is crucial for year-end dividend arbitrage. We can strategically target Single-stock futures' spread basis widening due to information timeliness disparities, focusing on companies with high dividend yields.
Furthermore, it offers valuable insights into assessing the December-March spread levels, potentially leading to a rollover distortion in KOSPI 200 futures' calendar spread trading.
Postponed yearend dividend record dates to March may clash with first-quarter dividends, offering a new trading opportunity. this unique situation could significantly impact spot and futures prices.


Comprehensive List: 359 Companies on KOSPI & KOSDAQ Deferring Yearend Dividend Record Dates

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Major pressure on net interest income where deposits are growing much faster than loans in the past six months, especially with term deposits, is creating major NIM contraction</li>
<li>Earnings may disappoint based on weakening net interest income, weakening margins, and where the overlay is far higher credit costs; from KRW17bn to KRW59bn in 2 yrs to 2Q23</li>
<li>Operating costs are not helping to support ROA and with a new virtual bank investment in Thailand, costs can remain high; fixing operational risks can also keep costs high.</li>
</ul>


Major pressure on net interest income where deposits are growing much faster than loans in the past six months, especially with term deposits, is creating major NIM contraction
Earnings may disappoint based on weakening net interest income, weakening margins, and where the overlay is far higher credit costs; from KRW17bn to KRW59bn in 2 yrs to 2Q23
Operating costs are not helping to support ROA and with a new virtual bank investment in Thailand, costs can remain high; fixing operational risks can also keep costs high.


KakaoBank - Term Deposits +47% | Net Int Inc/Assets -80bps | Provisions: 10% to 23% of Net Int Inc

South Korea

Woori Financial Group Inc. provides commercial banking services. The Company offers deposit services, loan services, bill services, settlement services, credit card, international, online banking, and other related services. Woori Financial Group also operates banking and retail banking businesses.

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Woori Financial Group (316140 KS)

Carlyle Group Selling More than 320 Billion Won Worth of KB Financial in a Block Deal Sale

After the market close on 14 February, KB Financial announced that The Carlyle Group is trying to sell a 1.2% stake in the company through a block...

Douglas Kim

Timing of Double Dividends Opportunities in Korea

The change in the dividend payment system in Korea in 2024 is likely to result in some attractive "double dividends" opportunities.

Douglas Kim

Comprehensive List: 359 Companies on KOSPI & KOSDAQ Deferring Yearend Dividend Record Dates

I've obtained the latest list of companies rescheduling dividend record dates to next year. Please check the attached Excel file. In the KOSPI, 119...

Sanghyun Park

KakaoBank - Term Deposits +47% | Net Int Inc/Assets -80bps | Provisions: 10% to 23% of Net Int Inc

Major net interest income pressure, NIM down sharply in past 6 months. Operating costs not supporting ROA. Credit metrics worsening: LLP from 10%...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Carlyle Group Selling More than 320 Billion Won Worth of KB Financial in a Block Deal Sale

After the market close on 14 February, KB Financial announced that The Carlyle Group is trying to sell a 1.2% stake in the company through a block...

Douglas Kim

Timing of Double Dividends Opportunities in Korea

The change in the dividend payment system in Korea in 2024 is likely to result in some attractive "double dividends" opportunities.

Douglas Kim

A 140% Increase in Share Cancellations by Korean Companies from 2021 to 2023

The total amount of share cancellations by Korean companies increased sharply in the past three years. Share cancellations of 6.1 trillion won in...

Douglas Kim

Comprehensive List: 359 Companies on KOSPI & KOSDAQ Deferring Yearend Dividend Record Dates

I've obtained the latest list of companies rescheduling dividend record dates to next year. Please check the attached Excel file. In the KOSPI, 119...

Sanghyun Park

KakaoBank - Term Deposits +47% | Net Int Inc/Assets -80bps | Provisions: 10% to 23% of Net Int Inc

Major net interest income pressure, NIM down sharply in past 6 months. Operating costs not supporting ROA. Credit metrics worsening: LLP from 10%...

Daniel Tabbush