Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Back on the <a href="https://www.woolworthsgroup.com.au/content/Document/2019-11-01%20Restructure%20Booklet.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">3 July 2019</a>, supermarket and grocery chain giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woolworths-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:500:1" rel="noopener">Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU)</a> announced plans to spin off its retail drinks and hospitality business via <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/endeavour-group-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33512:1" rel="noopener">Endeavour Group (EDV AU)</a>.
The demerger was expected to simplify the organisational structure, unlock long-term shareholder value for the company, and provide Endeavour greater access to capital. Shareholders agreed and approved the demerger at the EGM on the <a href="https://www.woolworthsgroup.com.au/content/Document/2019%20AGM%20%26%20EGM%20results.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">16 December 2019</a>.
The internal structure was completed on the <a href="https://www.woolworthsgroup.com.au/content/Document/Completion%20of%20Internal%20Restructure%20and%20ALH%20Merger.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">4 February 2020</a>, such that Woolies held 85.4% in Endeavour. The Bruce Mathieson Group held the remaining 14.6%. 
The timing of the demerger was subsequently <a href="https://www.woolworthsgroup.com.au/content/Document/Woolworths%20Group%20update%20on%20impact%20of%20coronavirus%20(COVID-19).pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">delayed</a> on account of Covid-19. 
A new meeting was held on the 18 June to re-consider the demerger, which was also <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02385935-2A1304198?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">duly passed</a>. 
Via an in-specie distribution to existing shareholders, Woolies' shareholders received one Endeavour share for every Woolies' share, in addition to maintaining their one share in Woolies. 
Woolies commenced trading on the ASX, ex-entitlement, on the 24 June, the same day Endeavour commenced trading. 
Woolies is now a cleaner supermarket play, whereas Endeavour may find itself on the wrong side of ESG investors. 
More below the fold.

Back on the 3 July 2019, supermarket and grocery chain giant Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU) announced plans to spin off its retail drinks and hospitality business via Endeavour Group (EDV AU).
The demerger was expected to simplify the organisational structure, unlock long-term shareholder value for the company, and provide Endeavour greater access to capital. Shareholders agreed and approved the demerger at the EGM on the 16 December 2019.
The internal structure was completed on the 4 February 2020, such that Woolies held 85.4% in Endeavour. The Bruce Mathieson Group held the remaining 14.6%. 
The timing of the demerger was subsequently delayed on account of Covid-19. 
A new meeting was held on the 18 June to re-consider the demerger, which was also duly passed. 
Via an in-specie distribution to existing shareholders, Woolies' shareholders received one Endeavour share for every Woolies' share, in addition to maintaining their one share in Woolies. 
Woolies commenced trading on the ASX, ex-entitlement, on the 24 June, the same day Endeavour commenced trading. 
Woolies is now a cleaner supermarket play, whereas Endeavour may find itself on the wrong side of ESG investors. 
More below the fold.

Woolworths/Endeavour: Taking A Bet On Alcohol & Gaming

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

For investors who are not based in Singapore, the mini lockdown in Singapore has started again due to the sudden increase in the number of community cases which previously was relatively under control. Before one thinks that it is a too-harsh of a policy, the rate of the increase of unlinked community cases in Singapore is high. This matters a lot because every Singapore residents need to check in every establishment using either an Identification card, Trace Together app, or token which has proved to be very effective as for months, most of the COVID-19 cases can be traced and therefore allows the government to take the necessary actions. 
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This time is different. Alongside the third wave that has hit India and Thailand, Singapore, too, is hit. The Singapore government's response to this is very much like the first lock-down (Circuit Breaker), that they minimize public interactions so that the number of community cases does not increase and provide them with the time to perform contact tracing thoroughly. 
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In this report, we identify that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sheng-siong-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6824:1" rel="noopener">Sheng Siong (SSG SP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-post-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:150:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Post (SPOST SP)</a>as winners while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:439:1" rel="noopener">Genting Singapore (GENS SP)</a>as losers.

For investors who are not based in Singapore, the mini lockdown in Singapore has started again due to the sudden increase in the number of community cases which previously was relatively under control. Before one thinks that it is a too-harsh of a policy, the rate of the increase of unlinked community cases in Singapore is high. This matters a lot because every Singapore residents need to check in every establishment using either an Identification card, Trace Together app, or token which has proved to be very effective as for months, most of the COVID-19 cases can be traced and therefore allows the government to take the necessary actions. 

This time is different. Alongside the third wave that has hit India and Thailand, Singapore, too, is hit. The Singapore government's response to this is very much like the first lock-down (Circuit Breaker), that they minimize public interactions so that the number of community cases does not increase and provide them with the time to perform contact tracing thoroughly. 

In this report, we identify that Sheng Siong (SSG SP) , Sea Ltd (SE US) and Singapore Post (SPOST SP)as winners while Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) and Genting Singapore (GENS SP)as losers. 

Singapore Mini Lockdown: Winners and Losers

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Quantitative Analysis

Since our Original on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-dividend-forecasting-the-rise-and-fall-of-dividends-across-asian-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43022" rel="noopener">Asia Dividend Forecasting | The Rise and Fall of Dividends Across Asian Companies</a>, published on Sep 30 2020, this is our first quarterly update. Our models take into account latest reported fiscal year-end financials to provide updated results. We also discuss companies where there is notable change in our conviction level based on updated data.
At the webinar in October, there was also a request for conducting price movement analysis corresponding to forward dividend growth/cut for our back-test results. This analysis is now available. Our results show a high correlation between price movements and dividend growth/cut, suggesting that users of our models will benefit from guiding their investment decisions based on dividend growth/cut outlook.

Since our Original on Asia Dividend Forecasting | The Rise and Fall of Dividends Across Asian Companies, published on Sep 30 2020, this is our first quarterly update. Our models take into account latest reported fiscal year-end financials to provide updated results. We also discuss companies where there is notable change in our conviction level based on updated data.
At the webinar in October, there was also a request for conducting price movement analysis corresponding to forward dividend growth/cut for our back-test results. This analysis is now available. Our results show a high correlation between price movements and dividend growth/cut, suggesting that users of our models will benefit from guiding their investment decisions based on dividend growth/cut outlook.

Asia Dividend Forecasting | Quarterly Update 1.0

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wesfarmers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1104:1" rel="noopener">Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU)</a> is back on the market looking to sell 69.4m shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coles-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27799:1" rel="noopener">Coles Group Ltd (COL AU)</a>. This came a little over a month after its February selldown which we have covered in:
<ul><li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coles-placement-selldown-from-wesfarmers-expected-but-discount-is-narrow-at-the-top" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36725" rel="noopener">Coles Placement - Selldown from Wesfarmers Expected but Discount Is Narrow at the Top</a> </li></ul>
Post selldown, Wesfarmers will still have about 4.9% stake in Cole and will be locked up for 60 days. The deal still scores well on our framework owing to good short-term momentum, relatively better leverage than peers. 
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Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU) is back on the market looking to sell 69.4m shares in Coles Group Ltd (COL AU). This came a little over a month after its February selldown which we have covered in:

Coles Placement - Selldown from Wesfarmers Expected but Discount Is Narrow at the Top 
Post selldown, Wesfarmers will still have about 4.9% stake in Cole and will be locked up for 60 days. The deal still scores well on our framework owing to good short-term momentum, relatively better leverage than peers. 


Coles Placement - Wider Discount to Account for Overhang

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caltex-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:345:1" rel="noopener">Caltex Australia (CTX AU)</a> is one of Australia’s largest convenience retailers and the leader in transport fuels, supplying one-third of all of Australia’s transport fuel needs. Caltex is the middle of a takeover tussle between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD/A CN)</a> and EG Group. <div class="content-highlight">EG Group’s offer was hoped to be the catalyst to start a bidding war. We believe that EG Group’s offer is inferior to Couche-Tard’s offer and absent another bidder, is unlikely to compel Couche-Tard to raise its bid. On the other hand, Couche-Tard’s offer is reasonable but not a knockout bid, which raises the possibility that bid does not get shareholder backing. Consequently, with shares trading around 1.5% below the Couche-Tard bid, we think that short-term investors/traders should take profits. </div>

Caltex Australia (CTX AU) is one of Australia’s largest convenience retailers and the leader in transport fuels, supplying one-third of all of Australia’s transport fuel needs. Caltex is the middle of a takeover tussle between Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD/A CN) and EG Group. EG Group’s offer was hoped to be the catalyst to start a bidding war. We believe that EG Group’s offer is inferior to Couche-Tard’s offer and absent another bidder, is unlikely to compel Couche-Tard to raise its bid. On the other hand, Couche-Tard’s offer is reasonable but not a knockout bid, which raises the possibility that bid does not get shareholder backing. Consequently, with shares trading around 1.5% below the Couche-Tard bid, we think that short-term investors/traders should take profits. 

Australia

Woolworths Limited operates supermarkets, specialty and discount department stores, liquor and electronics stores throughout Australia.  Woolworths also manufactures processed foods, exports and wholesales food and offers petrol retailing.  The Company also operates hotels which includes pubs, food, accommodation, and gaming operations.

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Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU)

Woolworths/Endeavour: Taking A Bet On Alcohol & Gaming

I side with ESG-focused super investors' concerns on Endeavour, given its exposure to gaming & alcohol. Woolies is now a pure-play on grocery and...

David Blennerhassett

Singapore Mini Lockdown: Winners and Losers

In this report, we identify that Sheng Siong (SSG SP) , Sea Ltd (SE US) and Singapore Post (SPOST SP)as winners while Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)...

Henry Soediarko

Asia Dividend Forecasting | Quarterly Update 1.0

We incorporate latest reported financial data to provide updated results for our Asia Dividend Forecasting models. We also ran an insightful price...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Coles Placement - Wider Discount to Account for Overhang

Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU) is back on the market looking to sell 69.4m shares in Coles Group Ltd (COL AU). This came a little over a month after its...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Caltex Australia’s Takeover Conundrum

Caltex Australia (CTX AU) is one of Australia’s largest convenience retailers and the leader in transport fuels, supplying one-third of all of...

Arun George

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