Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Micron's outlook for next quarter's margin will be key, provides good color on future margin for key Taiwan names</li>
<li>Intel conference could be catalyst for Intel Long/Short, CEO will be giving a keynote on company's new direction</li>
<li>AMD meeting many Taiwan-listed companies, Hon Hai EV platform closes new deal in Indonesia</li>
</ul>


Micron's outlook for next quarter's margin will be key, provides good color on future margin for key Taiwan names
Intel conference could be catalyst for Intel Long/Short, CEO will be giving a keynote on company's new direction
AMD meeting many Taiwan-listed companies, Hon Hai EV platform closes new deal in Indonesia


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Forecasts This Week, Intel Conference, AMD CEO to Visit Taiwan Suppliers

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019</li>
<li>Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash</li>
<li>It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019
Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash
It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%


Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The US Commerce Department is likely to expand China restrictions for the sale of chips and chip manufacturing equipment.</li>
<li>Impact for major Taiwan-listed suppliers appears minimal so far; Inventec is one name with potential exposure.</li>
<li>Not Made in China: More signs of shift as Tata is preparing a JV with Wistron to produce iPhones and Taiwanese companies look to Southeast Asia and the USA.</li>
</ul>


The US Commerce Department is likely to expand China restrictions for the sale of chips and chip manufacturing equipment.
Impact for major Taiwan-listed suppliers appears minimal so far; Inventec is one name with potential exposure.
Not Made in China: More signs of shift as Tata is preparing a JV with Wistron to produce iPhones and Taiwanese companies look to Southeast Asia and the USA.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: US Restrictions on Tech Sales to China to Expand

<ul>
<li>Nanya Tech is trading at one of the cheapest valuations in history, even when compared to past downturns, and has over 50% of its market cap as net cash.</li>
<li>Nanya Tech appears more compelling than Winbond in terms of price, valuation, and balance sheet trends.</li>
<li>The risk to the Long/Short pair could be relative product mix performance, but we believe other factors make up for this.</li>
</ul>


Nanya Tech is trading at one of the cheapest valuations in history, even when compared to past downturns, and has over 50% of its market cap as net cash.
Nanya Tech appears more compelling than Winbond in terms of price, valuation, and balance sheet trends.
The risk to the Long/Short pair could be relative product mix performance, but we believe other factors make up for this.


Chips Cycle Long/Short: Long Nanya Tech Vs. Short Winbond

<ul>
<li>2022 is likely to be a very good year for semiconductors, with 6% revenue growth following outstanding 2021 growth of ~22%.</li>
<li>Demand is solid, and shortages are driving prices higher.  Since revenues are demand times price, all signs are positive.</li>
<li>The factors that caused the last collapse, in 2019, are not in place this time, indicating that a downturn is very unlikely.</li>
</ul>


2022 is likely to be a very good year for semiconductors, with 6% revenue growth following outstanding 2021 growth of ~22%.
Demand is solid, and shortages are driving prices higher.  Since revenues are demand times price, all signs are positive.
The factors that caused the last collapse, in 2019, are not in place this time, indicating that a downturn is very unlikely.


2022 High Conviction - Modest Semiconductor Growth

Taiwan

Winbond Electronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells integrated circuits (IC) and related products.  The Company sells its products in Taiwan, the United States, and Hong Kong.

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Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Forecasts This Week, Intel Conference, AMD CEO to Visit Taiwan Suppliers

Micron's outlook for next quarter's margin will be key, provides good color on future margin for key Taiwan names. AMD CEO to meet with many Taiwan...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

The semiconductor market is falling and is likely to continue to drop through the end of the year. This presents an opportunity for shorts.

Jim Handy

Taiwan Tech Weekly: US Restrictions on Tech Sales to China to Expand

Also more signs of shift as Tata is preparing a JV with Wistron to produce iPhones and Taiwanese companies look to Southeast Asia and the USA.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Chips Cycle Long/Short: Long Nanya Tech Vs. Short Winbond

Nanya Tech appears more compelling than Winbond in terms of price, valuation, and balance sheet trends. It's at the cheapest valuation in its history.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

2022 High Conviction - Modest Semiconductor Growth

Can today's semiconductor revenue growth continue, or will the market undergo another collapse? Objective Analysis calls for 6% growth, and shows...

Jim Handy

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