Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our Recommendation – Stay Overweight Commodities: We forecast the bullish trends in Commodity pricing, which has been underway since 1Q16, to continue. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) we track remain in an uptrend, which is supportive for further pricing gains over the coming 3-6 months. We prefer late-cycle Metals such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22872" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22872:1">Copper (COPPER COMDTY)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26790" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26790:1">Nickel (NICKEL COMDTY)</a> and Tin, which should continue to support the shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19226" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19226:1">Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11174" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11174:1">Timah Persero Tbk Pt (TINS IJ)</a> in the…

Our Recommendation – Stay Overweight Commodities: We forecast the bullish trends in Commodity pricing, which has been underway since 1Q16, to continue. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) we track remain in an uptrend, which is supportive for further pricing gains over the coming 3-6 months. We prefer late-cycle Metals such as Copper (COPPER COMDTY), Nickel (NICKEL COMDTY) and Tin, which should continue to support the shares of Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO IJ) and Timah Persero Tbk Pt (TINS IJ) in the…

Stay Bullish Commodities; Despite Feb Pause

Equity Bottom-Up

China Agri Industries Hldgs / Equity Bottom-Up

Bejing to Avoid Soybean Food Fight: Our view is that Beijing will try to avoid counter-tariffs on US soybean imports, as was rumored in an anti-dumping investigation last January.  This is because China's pig and poultry farmers are so heavily dependent on US soybean feed that any import tariff would likely drive up meat costs, leading to a rise in consumer prices and potentially discontent. China's Soybean Crushers - Buy the Dip:  As such, we would recommend buying shares in China's leading…

Bejing to Avoid Soybean Food Fight: Our view is that Beijing will try to avoid counter-tariffs on US soybean imports, as was rumored in an anti-dumping investigation last January.  This is because China's pig and poultry farmers are so heavily dependent on US soybean feed that any import tariff would likely drive up meat costs, leading to a rise in consumer prices and potentially discontent. China's Soybean Crushers - Buy the Dip:  As such, we would recommend buying shares in China's leading…

China’s Response to Trump - US Soybean Tariff?

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

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STI’s Resilient & Comparative Lead in 2018 YTD

Singapore and emerging market real estate

Royston Foo

Things are getting interesting at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15566" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15566:1">United Engineers Ltd (UEM SP)</a> (“UEL”).An Extraordinary General Meeting (“EGM”) was held yesterday afternoon as UEL sought for shareholders’ approval for the proposed interested person transaction relating to UEL’s proposed acquisition of the 10% interests in WBL held by UEL’s controlling shareholder – Yanlord Perennial Investment (Singapore) Ltd. (“YPI”) as part of UEL’s proposed voluntary unconditional cash offer for WBL Corporation Ltd. The approval of UEL…

Things are getting interesting at United Engineers Ltd (UEM SP) (“UEL”).An Extraordinary General Meeting (“EGM”) was held yesterday afternoon as UEL sought for shareholders’ approval for the proposed interested person transaction relating to UEL’s proposed acquisition of the 10% interests in WBL held by UEL’s controlling shareholder – Yanlord Perennial Investment (Singapore) Ltd. (“YPI”) as part of UEL’s proposed voluntary unconditional cash offer for WBL Corporation Ltd. The approval of UEL…

United Engineers – Deeper Implications from the Failed Offer for WBL

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

This week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1">Sembcorp Marine Ltd (SMM SP)</a> enjoys an early week flurry, but likely pivots off conference exhaust; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a>'s mall nutrition; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/173" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> is exposed if a third player enters the Philippine's telco market.These relationships trade with: 1) a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average; and 2) a minimum 20% 'market capitalisation' threshold, whereby the value of the holding/opco held must be at least 20% of the parent's market cap.A detailed NAV for a number of these parent/holding relationships highlighted can be found in our holdco monitor.My comments on Sembcorp, Aeon, First Pac and Wheelock/Wharf follow the weekly setup/unwind tables.(Market cap and liquidity noted below are in US$. Liquidity is assessed on a 3-month average)

This week: Sembcorp Marine Ltd (SMM SP) enjoys an early week flurry, but likely pivots off conference exhaust; Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)'s mall nutrition; and First Pacific Co (142 HK) is exposed if a third player enters the Philippine's telco market.These relationships trade with: 1) a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average; and 2) a minimum 20% 'market capitalisation' threshold, whereby the value of the holding/opco held must be at least 20% of the parent's market cap.A detailed NAV for a number of these parent/holding relationships highlighted can be found in our holdco monitor.My comments on Sembcorp, Aeon, First Pac and Wheelock/Wharf follow the weekly setup/unwind tables.(Market cap and liquidity noted below are in US$. Liquidity is assessed on a 3-month average)

StubWorld - Set-Up & Unwind Extremes: Sembcorp, Aeon, First Pacific

Singapore

Wilmar International Ltd. is an agribusiness company. The Company is involved in oil palm cultivation, edible oils refining, oilseeds crushing, consumer pack edible oils processing and merchandising, specialty fats, oleochemicals and biodiesel manufacturing, and grains processing and merchandising. Wilmar also manufactures and distributes fertilizers and owns a fleet of vessels.

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Wilmar International (WIL SP)

Stay Bullish Commodities; Despite Feb Pause

Our Recommendation – Stay Overweight Commodities: We forecast the bullish trends in Commodity pricing, which has been underway since 1Q16, to...

Charles Spencer

China’s Response to Trump - US Soybean Tariff?

Bejing to Avoid Soybean Food Fight: Our view is that Beijing will try to avoid counter-tariffs on US soybean imports, as was rumored in an...

Charles Spencer

STI’s Resilient & Comparative Lead in 2018 YTD

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

United Engineers – Deeper Implications from the Failed Offer for WBL

Things are getting interesting at United Engineers Ltd (UEM SP) (“UEL”).An Extraordinary General Meeting (“EGM”) was held yesterday afternoon as...

Royston Foo

StubWorld - Set-Up & Unwind Extremes: Sembcorp, Aeon, First Pacific

This week: Sembcorp Marine Ltd (SMM SP) enjoys an early week flurry, but likely pivots off conference exhaust; Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)'s mall...

David Blennerhassett

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