Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We listened to the <a href="https://whitehavencoal.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Whitehaven-Investor_update.mp4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">conference call </a>held by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whitehaven-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14253:1" rel="noopener">Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)</a> to update investors on its acquisition of BHP's coking coal mines and  Q2 2024 production. </li>
<li>Based on spot prices of coking coal over 350 USD/ton and cash costs of 20% lower than the average of 2 years, the EV-EBITDA of acquisition is 1.8x</li>
<li>The acquisition could be massively accretive if coking coal prices remain stronger for longer as the company pivots its strategy to becoming a large met coal producer. </li>
</ul>


We listened to the conference call held by Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) to update investors on its acquisition of BHP's coking coal mines and  Q2 2024 production. 
Based on spot prices of coking coal over 350 USD/ton and cash costs of 20% lower than the average of 2 years, the EV-EBITDA of acquisition is 1.8x
The acquisition could be massively accretive if coking coal prices remain stronger for longer as the company pivots its strategy to becoming a large met coal producer. 


Whitehaven Coal: Great Acquisition, Cash Gone, Now At The Mercy of The Cycle

<ul>
<li>The pivot in capital allocation plans of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whitehaven-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14253:1" rel="noopener">Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)</a> by suspending its buyback program (up to 25% of outstanding shares) is a big negative for us. </li>
<li>We think the increase in capex spending in a frothy pricing environment and focus on M&amp;A for spending the 2.6 bn of cash is a coin toss on capital allocation. </li>
<li>We prefer names that keep their capital allocation plans consistent, e.g., <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indo-tambangraya-megah-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15891:1" rel="noopener">Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ)</a>, and would take money off the table here.</li>
</ul>


The pivot in capital allocation plans of Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) by suspending its buyback program (up to 25% of outstanding shares) is a big negative for us. 
We think the increase in capex spending in a frothy pricing environment and focus on M&amp;A for spending the 2.6 bn of cash is a coin toss on capital allocation. 
We prefer names that keep their capital allocation plans consistent, e.g., Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ), and would take money off the table here.


Whitehaven Coal Suspension of Buyback: A Negative Despite Rising Coal Price/ Potential Acquisition

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whitehaven-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14253:1" rel="noopener">Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)</a> released its June Quarterly. The company is in blackout (starting July 1st) till its release of annual results on August 24th, 2023.</li>
<li>June quarter OCF was 435 mn AUD ( Avg Coal Px 177 USD/ton), and net cash on the balance sheet was 2.65 bn AUD representing 45% of market capitalization.</li>
<li>To complete its buyback program, 147 million shares remain left to repurchase (current o/s shares 836 mn). 196 million shares have been repurchased so far since March 2022.</li>
</ul>



Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) released its June Quarterly. The company is in blackout (starting July 1st) till its release of annual results on August 24th, 2023.
June quarter OCF was 435 mn AUD ( Avg Coal Px 177 USD/ton), and net cash on the balance sheet was 2.65 bn AUD representing 45% of market capitalization.
To complete its buyback program, 147 million shares remain left to repurchase (current o/s shares 836 mn). 196 million shares have been repurchased so far since March 2022.


Whitehaven Coal June Quarterly: 45% of Mkt Cap in Cash, >20% OCF Yield, Aggressive Buyback

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

<ul><li>Blackwater sell down to Nippon and Jfezenhe Steel for US 1.08 billion upfront</li><li>Deal includes selling 30% of Blackwater, reducing net debt by 150 million and potential future contingent payments</li><li>Transaction costs and transition costs higher than expected, but deal significantly impacts balance sheet and future cash flow</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Blackwater sell down to Nippon and Jfezenhe Steel for US 1.08 billion upfrontDeal includes selling 30% of Blackwater, reducing net debt by 150 million and potential future contingent paymentsTransaction costs and transition costs higher than expected, but deal significantly impacts balance sheet and future cash flowThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Whitehaven Nail the Landing, Patriot look to the Future

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With 6 days left to review cutoff, there are 2 potential adds and 3 potential deletions for the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3% and a round-trip trade of A$159m.</li>
<li>The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till next Friday and whether the provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.</li>
</ul>


With 6 days left to review cutoff, there are 2 potential adds and 3 potential deletions for the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the March rebalance.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3% and a round-trip trade of A$159m.
The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till next Friday and whether the provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in March; Multiple Overlaps

Australia

Whitehaven Coal Limited mines and sells metallurgical and thermal coals to the global steel, power generation, and metallurgical industries.

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Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)

Whitehaven Coal: Great Acquisition, Cash Gone, Now At The Mercy of The Cycle

We provide our take on the recent acquisition of the coal assets of BHP by Whitehaven Coal. By consuming all its cash and taking on debt, the...

Sameer Taneja

Whitehaven Coal Suspension of Buyback: A Negative Despite Rising Coal Price/ Potential Acquisition

We provide a rationale for why we do not like Whitehaven Coal's suspension of its buy back program despite the strong coal price environment and...

Sameer Taneja

Whitehaven Coal June Quarterly: 45% of Mkt Cap in Cash, >20% OCF Yield, Aggressive Buyback

Whitehaven Coal has net cash of 2.65 bn AUD representing 45% of market capitalization on its balance sheet and >20% OCF. Despite subdued coal...

Sameer Taneja

Whitehaven Nail the Landing, Patriot look to the Future

The sell down of 30% of Blackwater to Nippon and Jfezenhe Steel for US $1.08 billion reduces net debt and incurs additional costs, with potential...

Money of Mine

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in March; Multiple Overlaps

There could be 5 changes for the index in March. A few more names are close deletes. SIG's inclusion will add to passive inflows while MIN's...

Brian Freitas

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