Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

Crude Palm Oil Active Contract / Commodities

<ul><li>Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets Big trading houses like Glencore, Trafigura, Mercuria or Vitol are benefiting since years now from the increasing fluctuations on the commodities markets.</li><li>This trend increased, especially since crude oil went negative when the Covid pandemic started and was followed by further volatility since the macro environment became even more fragile with the war in Ukraine and now the conflicts in the Middle East.</li><li>According to Ney York based consulting firm Oliver Wyman, the gross margin of trading houses amounted to 105 billion dollars in 2023.</li></ul>

Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets Big trading houses like Glencore, Trafigura, Mercuria or Vitol are benefiting since years now from the increasing fluctuations on the commodities markets.This trend increased, especially since crude oil went negative when the Covid pandemic started and was followed by further volatility since the macro environment became even more fragile with the war in Ukraine and now the conflicts in the Middle East.According to Ney York based consulting firm Oliver Wyman, the gross margin of trading houses amounted to 105 billion dollars in 2023.

Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Pakistan’s CPI Inflation jumped to 31.4% YoY in Sep-2023, breaking a three-months of YoY declining trend. The significant hike in inflation is due to higher local fuel and food prices.</li><li>On MoM basis, CPI inflation was up 2.0% in Sep 2023 as compared to 1.7% in Aug 2023 and last 3-month average of 1.6%.</li><li>This takes 1QFY24 average inflation to 29.04% compared to 25.11% in 1QFY23.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Pakistan’s CPI Inflation jumped to 31.4% YoY in Sep-2023, breaking a three-months of YoY declining trend. The significant hike in inflation is due to higher local fuel and food prices.On MoM basis, CPI inflation was up 2.0% in Sep 2023 as compared to 1.7% in Aug 2023 and last 3-month average of 1.6%.This takes 1QFY24 average inflation to 29.04% compared to 25.11% in 1QFY23.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Economy - Inflation up 31% YoY in Sep-2023 as Expected

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

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<h3>Graph Analysis – Review</h3>
<p>According to Graph 2, during the period August 15, 2022 – November 11, 2022, an overall bullish trend was reflected in the prices of Wheat. During the examined period there were two secondary movements. From August 15th, until October 7th, an upward trend was observed. Then the pair started to fluctuate downwards amid significant volatility until November 11th. The shorter MA and the longer MA were fluctuating at the beginning of the period under consideration, yet on August 31th the MA 10 overpassed the MA 20 moving higher until October 17th, when a second crossover occurred, indicating a potential downward movement. The CCI Indicator in Graph 3, remained in the positive territory from August 20th until October 10th, when the value of CCI further dropped, ranging in negative prices and providing a potential sell signal. Based on Graph 4, Aroon Down surpassed Aroon Up on October 19th, also indicating a potential sell signal. The downtrend was further supported by MACD (Graph 5) which crossed below zero on October 20th, 2022.</p>
<h3>Fundamental Analysis – Review</h3>
<p>On August 18th, the USDA's announcement of weekly export sales fell short of analysts' expectations. In the same trading session, US wheat futures prices advanced notably having dropped the previous day. | Due to NASS ceasing to track harvest progress on August 29th, as harvesting was nearing its conclusion, prices for U.S. wheat futures dropped the same day. | On September 7th, the demand for US wheat from Japan had an impact the US wheat futures prices. | On September 20th, the USDA report came out and the planting rate was down about 3% to 4%. Apart from Ukraine, the decrease was due to weather conditions in Spain and Hungary. Thus, US wheat futures price recorded a rise. | On October 10th, the ongoing missile attacks by Russia against Ukraine due to the ongoing war caused US wheat futures prices to adopt a volatile pattern. | On October 18th, Moscow and the UN met and the outcome was better communication over wheat exports. US wheat futures declined as a result. | On October 31st US wheat futures price rose significantly with the reason being that Russia had withdrawn from the agreement with Ukraine for safe exports through the Black Sea. | On November 2nd, President Vladimir Putin said he would return to the deal after speaking with his Turkish counterpart, President Tayyip Erdogan. Thus, the price of US wheat futures started to fall and continued so in the following sessions.</p>
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Graph Analysis – Review
According to Graph 2, during the period August 15, 2022 – November 11, 2022, an overall bullish trend was reflected in the prices of Wheat. During the examined period there were two secondary movements. From August 15th, until October 7th, an upward trend was observed. Then the pair started to fluctuate downwards amid significant volatility until November 11th. The shorter MA and the longer MA were fluctuating at the beginning of the period under consideration, yet on August 31th the MA 10 overpassed the MA 20 moving higher until October 17th, when a second crossover occurred, indicating a potential downward movement. The CCI Indicator in Graph 3, remained in the positive territory from August 20th until October 10th, when the value of CCI further dropped, ranging in negative prices and providing a potential sell signal. Based on Graph 4, Aroon Down surpassed Aroon Up on October 19th, also indicating a potential sell signal. The downtrend was further supported by MACD (Graph 5) which crossed below zero on October 20th, 2022.
Fundamental Analysis – Review
On August 18th, the USDA's announcement of weekly export sales fell short of analysts' expectations. In the same trading session, US wheat futures prices advanced notably having dropped the previous day. | Due to NASS ceasing to track harvest progress on August 29th, as harvesting was nearing its conclusion, prices for U.S. wheat futures dropped the same day. | On September 7th, the demand for US wheat from Japan had an impact the US wheat futures prices. | On September 20th, the USDA report came out and the planting rate was down about 3% to 4%. Apart from Ukraine, the decrease was due to weather conditions in Spain and Hungary. Thus, US wheat futures price recorded a rise. | On October 10th, the ongoing missile attacks by Russia against Ukraine due to the ongoing war caused US wheat futures prices to adopt a volatile pattern. | On October 18th, Moscow and the UN met and the outcome was better communication over wheat exports. US wheat futures declined as a result. | On October 31st US wheat futures price rose significantly with the reason being that Russia had withdrawn from the agreement with Ukraine for safe exports through the Black Sea. | On November 2nd, President Vladimir Putin said he would return to the deal after speaking with his Turkish counterpart, President Tayyip Erdogan. Thus, the price of US wheat futures started to fall and continued so in the following sessions.




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Wheat (W A COMDTY)

Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets

Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets Big trading houses like Glencore, Trafigura, Mercuria or Vitol are benefiting since years now from the...

The Commodity Report

Pakistan Economy - Inflation up 31% YoY in Sep-2023 as Expected

Pakistan’s CPI Inflation jumped to 31.4% YoY in Sep-2023, breaking a three-months of YoY declining trend. The significant hike in inflation is due...

Topline Securities

Commodity Analysis - US Wheat Futures

Graph Analysis – Review According to Graph 2, during the period August 15, 2022 – November 11, 2022, an overall bullish trend was reflected in...

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)