'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/679/original/2020-05-01_05-31-11.png?1588278692" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130679"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div>COMFORT BLANKET - As the politically-motivated Central Banks smother equity markets with the comfort blanket of the 'mother of all QEs', the reality of what The Economist describes as the '90% Economy' unfolds in the daily earnings and forecasts revisions announced by Japanese companies. In some cases, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a>, the picture is distorted by the strength in overseas demand in February as Chinese competition was put on hold and the rest of North Asia took up the resulting 'slack'. As we have noted before, the first and second-order impacts of COVID-19 will not be revealed until the August and November results, when we expect both of our Scores to be closer to their 2009 troughs. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserves trillion-dollar rescue package will keep upward pressure on the yen as the Bank of Japan struggles to keep up.  COUNTERMEASURES - Japan's revised supplementary budget was approved yesterday, allowing for interest-free loans to businesses, tax deferrals and cash handouts to all households. The COVID crisis has also prompted Japan to engage in a bout of 'magical thinking' allowing for the rolling back or revision of many long-cherished traditions:-<ul>
<li>The start of the academic year will now probably be pushed back to September this year - discussions have started to make this shift permanent, finally bringing Japan into line with the rest of the world.</li>
<li>Hanko personal and corporate seals that are required to certify documents may now also be going the way of the dodo as the Keidanren business organisation has acknowledged that they 'do not meet the digital age'.</li>
</ul><hr><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/680/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2039%2027.jpeg?1588280828" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130680"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/681/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2027%2003.jpeg?1588280873" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130681"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/683/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2040%2007.jpeg?1588281553" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130683"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/682/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2031%2028.jpeg?1588280903" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130682"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • ourworldindata.org</div>MAYDAY - Although Japan's daily case count has fallen to around 200, the medical experts advising the Japanese government are suggesting that this level will require an extension to the states of emergency (SOEs) currently operating in all prefectures beyond May 6th. Hospitals are still working at above-normal capacity, and patients are still being turned away from many hospitals. Alarmingly Japan's current eight death-doubling-days count is amongst the worst in the world. Also, excess mortality data for Tokyo suggests that, in March, there were over 60 excess deaths a week not attributed to COVID-19. The expectation is that the SOEs will be extended to Sunday, May 31st and that schools will not reopen until September. In most European countries extensive testing is one of the requisites for easing lockdown restrictions, and the UK is now ramping up testing capacity in anticipation. Japan's woeful record on testing will become a factor by the end of May. Japan's case fatality rate of 3% suggests that the number of cases could be ten times the official number.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/684/original/2020-05-01_06-41-23.png?1588282906" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130684"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>30TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Thursday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 132 results was 51:10:71; and for the 83 revisions or initial forecasts, the split was 30:7:43. Of the 98 companies announcing annual results, only 43 made forecasts for the current year. The ratio of dividend cuts to increases was 5:10 with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP)</a> being the most prominent in the former camp.

Source • Japan AnalyticsCOMFORT BLANKET - As the politically-motivated Central Banks smother equity markets with the comfort blanket of the 'mother of all QEs', the reality of what The Economist describes as the '90% Economy' unfolds in the daily earnings and forecasts revisions announced by Japanese companies. In some cases, such as Nidec (6594 JP), the picture is distorted by the strength in overseas demand in February as Chinese competition was put on hold and the rest of North Asia took up the resulting 'slack'. As we have noted before, the first and second-order impacts of COVID-19 will not be revealed until the August and November results, when we expect both of our Scores to be closer to their 2009 troughs. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserves trillion-dollar rescue package will keep upward pressure on the yen as the Bank of Japan struggles to keep up.  COUNTERMEASURES - Japan's revised supplementary budget was approved yesterday, allowing for interest-free loans to businesses, tax deferrals and cash handouts to all households. The COVID crisis has also prompted Japan to engage in a bout of 'magical thinking' allowing for the rolling back or revision of many long-cherished traditions:-
The start of the academic year will now probably be pushed back to September this year - discussions have started to make this shift permanent, finally bringing Japan into line with the rest of the world.
Hanko personal and corporate seals that are required to certify documents may now also be going the way of the dodo as the Keidanren business organisation has acknowledged that they 'do not meet the digital age'.
Source • ourworldindata.orgMAYDAY - Although Japan's daily case count has fallen to around 200, the medical experts advising the Japanese government are suggesting that this level will require an extension to the states of emergency (SOEs) currently operating in all prefectures beyond May 6th. Hospitals are still working at above-normal capacity, and patients are still being turned away from many hospitals. Alarmingly Japan's current eight death-doubling-days count is amongst the worst in the world. Also, excess mortality data for Tokyo suggests that, in March, there were over 60 excess deaths a week not attributed to COVID-19. The expectation is that the SOEs will be extended to Sunday, May 31st and that schools will not reopen until September. In most European countries extensive testing is one of the requisites for easing lockdown restrictions, and the UK is now ramping up testing capacity in anticipation. Japan's woeful record on testing will become a factor by the end of May. Japan's case fatality rate of 3% suggests that the number of cases could be ten times the official number.Source • Japan Analytics30TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Thursday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 132 results was 51:10:71; and for the 83 revisions or initial forecasts, the split was 30:7:43. Of the 98 companies announcing annual results, only 43 made forecasts for the current year. The ratio of dividend cuts to increases was 5:10 with Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP) being the most prominent in the former camp.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 30th April - D1Life, Toto, JR-W, CTC, Murata, Nidec, Mercari

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Shopping centre sales rose again in 2018-19 thanks to decent local support, investment in upgrading and expanding malls, inbound tourism growth and the growing enthusiasm to use dining and leisure options at station-based malls across the country.Tourism boosted outlet malls once again and helped Narita Airport’s SC to widen its lead as the biggest mall by far, but it was the big station-based SCs that performed the best on average.Despite this relative buoyancy, the number of new malls in 2018 collapsed to the lowest level in 20 years and 2019 was also a poor year. Shortages of labour and materials in the pre-Olympic infrastructure boom haven’t helped but nor has greater competition and falling interest in all but the best retailers’ new stores.The following is an in-depth review of shopping centre development and performance in 2018-19 including a ranking of the top 50 shopping centres by sales.

Shopping centre sales rose again in 2018-19 thanks to decent local support, investment in upgrading and expanding malls, inbound tourism growth and the growing enthusiasm to use dining and leisure options at station-based malls across the country.Tourism boosted outlet malls once again and helped Narita Airport’s SC to widen its lead as the biggest mall by far, but it was the big station-based SCs that performed the best on average.Despite this relative buoyancy, the number of new malls in 2018 collapsed to the lowest level in 20 years and 2019 was also a poor year. Shortages of labour and materials in the pre-Olympic infrastructure boom haven’t helped but nor has greater competition and falling interest in all but the best retailers’ new stores.The following is an in-depth review of shopping centre development and performance in 2018-19 including a ranking of the top 50 shopping centres by sales.

Japan Shopping Centres 2018-19: Sales Rise Again but Fewer New Malls

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Global equities are now breaking out to new highs amid positive technical developments -- something we noted was increasingly likely in last week’s Int’l Compass. These breakouts and other technical developments highlighted below argue that this is the beginning of a new leg higher. Now is the time to be playing offense. In today’s report we highlight our favorite setups within Industrials, spanning the Vermilion international Manufacturing, Services, and Transportation Sectors.

Global equities are now breaking out to new highs amid positive technical developments -- something we noted was increasingly likely in last week’s Int’l Compass. These breakouts and other technical developments highlighted below argue that this is the beginning of a new leg higher. Now is the time to be playing offense. In today’s report we highlight our favorite setups within Industrials, spanning the Vermilion international Manufacturing, Services, and Transportation Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Global Equities Beginning a New Leg Higher

Shopping centre performance varies hugely between regions and locations, but for the past few years, the common denominator for SCs with consistent positive growth has been either that they are located in transport hubs or are outlet malls. Leading developers include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1" rel="noopener">East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP).</a>

Shopping centre performance varies hugely between regions and locations, but for the past few years, the common denominator for SCs with consistent positive growth has been either that they are located in transport hubs or are outlet malls. Leading developers include Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP).

Japan Shopping Centres: Station and Outlet Mall Sales up Again

The average growth among the top 100 shopping centres (SCs) in Japan in 2017-18 was 2.6% compared to 2.3% for the shopping centre market overall.
The top 100 SCs had average sales densities of ¥86,230 per sqm per month, compared to ¥50,833 per sqm per month for the sector overall, showing the stark contrast in performance between the best SCs (and the better developers) and the rest.
The improvement in sales by outlet malls after a retreat in 2016-17 was the big story in SC retailing last year – among the top 30 SCs by sales growth, 10 were outlet malls and all posted growth of more than 5% compared to just a single SC in 2016.
A number of developers look set to continue to perform better compared to the SC sector overall, at least in terms of tenant revenues and shopping centre operating profits: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1">Aeon (8267 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5262" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5262:1">Aeon Mall (8905 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/565" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/566" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:566:1">Mitsubishi Estate (8802 JP)</a> as well as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14271" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1">East Japan Railway (9020 JP)</a> – 12 of the top 30 most efficient SCs in the country are operated by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14271" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1">East Japan Railway</a>.

The average growth among the top 100 shopping centres (SCs) in Japan in 2017-18 was 2.6% compared to 2.3% for the shopping centre market overall.
The top 100 SCs had average sales densities of ¥86,230 per sqm per month, compared to ¥50,833 per sqm per month for the sector overall, showing the stark contrast in performance between the best SCs (and the better developers) and the rest.
The improvement in sales by outlet malls after a retreat in 2016-17 was the big story in SC retailing last year – among the top 30 SCs by sales growth, 10 were outlet malls and all posted growth of more than 5% compared to just a single SC in 2016.
A number of developers look set to continue to perform better compared to the SC sector overall, at least in terms of tenant revenues and shopping centre operating profits: Aeon (8267 JP), Aeon Mall (8905 JP), Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP), and Mitsubishi Estate (8802 JP) as well as East Japan Railway (9020 JP) – 12 of the top 30 most efficient SCs in the country are operated by East Japan Railway.

Japan's Top 100 Shopping Centres Outperforming: Who Owns What

Japan

TOKYU CORPORATION provides passenger rail transportation, bus transportation, truckload services, and air transportation serving the Tokyo and its surrounding areas.  The Company operates department stores, real estate leasing, and hotel businesses.  Through its subsidiaries, Tokyu offers leisure-related services such as travel agents, theaters. golf, and rent car agents.

Hankyu Hanshin Holdings, Inc. is a passenger rail company serving the Kansai area.  The Company also provides passenger bus transportation and logistics services.  In addition, Hankyu Hanshin Holdings operates housing and urban development, athletic facilities, theaters, travel agents, hotels, and other leisure-related services.

Hitachi Transport System, Ltd. provides freight truck, port harbor, and marine transportation, logistics, cargo handling, warehousing, and customs clearing services.  The Company mainly transports Hitachi Ltd's freight such as industrial machinery and precision equipment.

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Metropolitan Tokyo and Chiba prefecture areas.  The Company operates department and supermarket stores, hotels, travel agents, movie theater and restaurants, and sells, leases, and maintains real estate.  Keisei Electric is a shareholder of Oriental Land Co., Ltd. which operates Tokyo Disneyland.

Kintetsu Group Holdings provides passenger rail, bus, taxi, and freight truck transportation services in the Kinki region including Osaka, Kyoto, and Nara prefectures.  The Company also offers ground, air, and marine logistics services and operates department stores and real estate business.

Kyushu Railway Company, doing business as JR Kyushu, offers transportation services. The Company provides passenger and railway freight services, as well as route, ticket, and time table information. JR Kyushu serves customers in Japan.

Keio Corporation mainly provides rail and bus transportation services for passengers in the Kanto area.  The Company leases real estate and operates department stores and supermarkets.  Keio also operates hotels in the Shinjuku and Sapporo areas.

Odakyu Electric Railway Co., Ltd. provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Kanto and Chubu areas including Tokyo.  The Company also operates department stores, amusement parks, hotels, real estate, and travel businesses.  The Company provides general construction such as residential building and land development.

Nagoya Railroad Co., Ltd. mainly provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Chubu area.  The Company also leases and sells real estate and operates leisure-related businesses such as department stores, hotels, and travel agents.

SEINO HOLDINGS CO., LTD. comprises a family of companies offering comprehensive transportation and logistics solutions for customers.  The Companyprovides express transportation, door-to-door parcel delivery, moving, contract logistics, and international logistics services via its ground, air, and marine transportation network.  SEINO HOLDINGS also operates Toyota dealers.

Landstar System, Inc. is a North American truckload carrier.  The Company transports a variety of freight, including iron and steel, automotive products, paper, lumber, chemicals, foodstuffs, and military hardware.  Landstar provides truckload carrier services, intermodal transportation services, and expedited air and truck services to shippers in the US, Canada, and Mexico.

Ryder System, Inc. provides a continuum of logistics, supply chain, and transportation management solutions worldwide.  The Company's offerings range from full-service leasing, commercial rental and maintenance of vehicles to integrated services.  The Company also offers comprehensive supply chain solutions, logistics management services, and e-Commerce solutions.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. provides transportation and logistics services. The Company offers dry van, cross border freight transportation, fleet solutions, consulting, brokerage, equipment leasing, temperature controlled transport, and engineering services. Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings serves customers in North America.

Container Corporation of India Limited supplies railway cargo services, via its fleet of container trains.  The Company also provides bonded warehousing services.

Localiza Rent a Car SA rents automobiles.  The Company owns and franchises locations in Brazil and elsewhere in Latin America.  Localiza primarily operates through airport locations.  The Company also sells used cars and offers fleet management services.

Rumo S.A. owns and operates rail networks. The Company transports agricultural commodities, chemicals, petrochemicals, construction materials, electronic goods, automotive parts, steel and forestry products, and fertilizers. Rumo serves customers in Brazil.

Aurizon Holdings Ltd is a rail freight company. The Company provides coal, bulk and general freight haulage services, operating on the Central Queensland Coal Network (CQCN) and including specialised track maintenance and workshop support functions.

U-Haul Holding Company operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers rental of trucks, trailers, and self storage space, as well as provides property and casualty and life insurance products. U-Haul Holding also sells boxes, tapes, and other moving and self-storage products and services to 'do-it-yourself' moving and storage customers.

Saia, Inc. provides trucking transportation to the retail, petrochemical, and manufacturing industries.  The Company offers regional, interregional, and national less-than-truckload services, and selected truckload services across the United States.

Avis Budget Group, Inc. engages in the provision of vehicle sharing and rental services. It operates through the Americas and International segments. The Americas segment licenses the firm's brands for car rentals in the United States. The International segment leases out vehicles in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. It operates under the Avis, Budget, Zipcar, Payless, and Apex brands. The company was founded on August 23, 2006 and is headquartered in Parsippany, NJ.

West Japan Railway Company provides rail transportation services including the shinkansen network (bullet train) in North Kyushu, Kinki, Chugoku, and Hokuriku including Kyoto and Osaka.  The Company also operates ferries in Miyajima, manages real estate, shopping centers, and hotels, and offers leisure-related services such as travel packaging products.

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West Japan Railway Co (9021 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 30th April - D1Life, Toto, JR-W, CTC, Murata, Nidec, Mercari

COMFORT BLANKET - As the politically-motivated Central Banks smother equity markets with the comfort blanket of the 'mother of all QEs', the...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Shopping Centres 2018-19: Sales Rise Again but Fewer New Malls

Shopping centre sales rose again in 2018-19 thanks to decent local support, investment in upgrading and expanding malls, inbound tourism growth and...

Michael Causton

Global Equity Strategy: Global Equities Beginning a New Leg Higher

Global equities are now breaking out to new highs amid positive technical developments -- something we noted was increasingly likely in last week’s...

Vermilion Research

Japan Shopping Centres: Station and Outlet Mall Sales up Again

Shopping centre performance varies hugely between regions and locations, but for the past few years, the common denominator for SCs with consistent...

Michael Causton

Japan's Top 100 Shopping Centres Outperforming: Who Owns What

The average growth among the top 100 shopping centres (SCs) in Japan in 2017-18 was 2.6% compared to 2.3% for the shopping centre market...

Michael Causton

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