Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The news of a C19 vaccine is a discrete variable that can affect how banks assess credit risk. With a vaccine there is less risk of economic shutdown, less risk of worsening consumption, and less risk of more unemployment. All of this must mean better statistics for probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD). At the same time, the US President-elect is talking about a ‘dark winter’ and urging mass mask-wearing. This comes as many European countries re-shutdown their economies at least to some degree. Banks will be hard-pressed to not view the Biden comments and actions from European countries as negative for credit metrics. This can mean a messy and moving set of credit risk assumptions for banks, making the path forward that much more difficult to ascertain.

The news of a C19 vaccine is a discrete variable that can affect how banks assess credit risk. With a vaccine there is less risk of economic shutdown, less risk of worsening consumption, and less risk of more unemployment. All of this must mean better statistics for probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD). At the same time, the US President-elect is talking about a ‘dark winter’ and urging mass mask-wearing. This comes as many European countries re-shutdown their economies at least to some degree. Banks will be hard-pressed to not view the Biden comments and actions from European countries as negative for credit metrics. This can mean a messy and moving set of credit risk assumptions for banks, making the path forward that much more difficult to ascertain.

China Banks – Biden, Vaccine, Provisions

The next step for banks is to purge costs. As banks brace for more defaults, less loan demand,  higher credit costs, we must expect a wholesale effort on cutting costs. Many banks held off on their cost cutting plans early in the year to ease financial stress for staff and their dependents. It is doubtful that this lasts, especially with more countries reinstating insane policies of locking down citizens as an attempt to stop C19 deaths. The one controllable for banks is operating costs. However, this raises an additional question of ‘free banking’ as put forward by SmartKarma some weeks ago. Perhaps this is when more banks begin charging for basic banking services, alongside cost cutting.

The next step for banks is to purge costs. As banks brace for more defaults, less loan demand,  higher credit costs, we must expect a wholesale effort on cutting costs. Many banks held off on their cost cutting plans early in the year to ease financial stress for staff and their dependents. It is doubtful that this lasts, especially with more countries reinstating insane policies of locking down citizens as an attempt to stop C19 deaths. The one controllable for banks is operating costs. However, this raises an additional question of ‘free banking’ as put forward by SmartKarma some weeks ago. Perhaps this is when more banks begin charging for basic banking services, alongside cost cutting.

Equity Bottom-Up

It was only a matter of time. Many banks are seeing the same theme: reduced credit costs supporting profit. Indonesia’s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> is unique, in that it had more ROA to claw back. This is now coming through in the quarterly numbers, and this should continue, rather than be the end of it. There are further positive implications for dividends, especially with high capital, limited lending and better credit metrics.

It was only a matter of time. Many banks are seeing the same theme: reduced credit costs supporting profit. Indonesia’s Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) is unique, in that it had more ROA to claw back. This is now coming through in the quarterly numbers, and this should continue, rather than be the end of it. There are further positive implications for dividends, especially with high capital, limited lending and better credit metrics. 

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Don’t Be Fooled: Citigroup (C.US) [Citi] reported 3Q20 earnings of USD 3.2 bn (EPS of USD 1.40) – increasing USD 1.9 bn (145.4%) on a linked quarter basis and coming in well head of consensus of USD 0.89 per share. Core operating results were even more impressive at Citi, improving USD 2.3 bn or 3.6x linked quarter. Citi cut its loss provisioning effort by USD 5.6 bn (71.4%) during the period despite net new NPLs remaining on an aggressive upswing;*Getting Squeezed From Every Angle: Citi’s operating revenues declined driven by both the decline in principal transactions revenue of USD 1.6 bn (39.7%) and NIM pressures. Expenses were problematic for Citi as well, increasing USD 589 mn (5.7%) over the same period and pushed its C&amp;I ratio higher by 10.1% to 64.4%; and  *Consent Order: On October 7, 2020, Citi announced a Consent Order with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York  and the Office of the Comptroller to take action to improve its risk management, data governance, and internal controls. There was also a USD 400 mn penalty.

*Don’t Be Fooled: Citigroup (C.US) [Citi] reported 3Q20 earnings of USD 3.2 bn (EPS of USD 1.40) – increasing USD 1.9 bn (145.4%) on a linked quarter basis and coming in well head of consensus of USD 0.89 per share. Core operating results were even more impressive at Citi, improving USD 2.3 bn or 3.6x linked quarter. Citi cut its loss provisioning effort by USD 5.6 bn (71.4%) during the period despite net new NPLs remaining on an aggressive upswing;*Getting Squeezed From Every Angle: Citi’s operating revenues declined driven by both the decline in principal transactions revenue of USD 1.6 bn (39.7%) and NIM pressures. Expenses were problematic for Citi as well, increasing USD 589 mn (5.7%) over the same period and pushed its C&amp;I ratio higher by 10.1% to 64.4%; and  *Consent Order: On October 7, 2020, Citi announced a Consent Order with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York  and the Office of the Comptroller to take action to improve its risk management, data governance, and internal controls. There was also a USD 400 mn penalty.

Credit costs are down substantially at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wells-fargo-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:232:1" rel="noopener">Wells Fargo &amp; Co (WFC US)</a> in the latest quarter. This is understandable given its sharp rise during previous quarters and well higher than its own history. WFC had stood out here going on the quarter and we are seeing how it plays out. Long-term perspective shows even through the early 1990s that WFC may be in for a period of low provisions.

Credit costs are down substantially at Wells Fargo &amp; Co (WFC US) in the latest quarter. This is understandable given its sharp rise during previous quarters and well higher than its own history. WFC had stood out here going on the quarter and we are seeing how it plays out. Long-term perspective shows even through the early 1990s that WFC may be in for a period of low provisions.  

Wells Fargo – The Great Provision Delta

United States

Wells Fargo & Company is a diversified financial services company providing banking, insurance, investments, mortgage, leasing, credit cards, and consumer finance.  The Company operates through physical stores, the Internet and other distribution channels across North America and elsewhere internationally.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Wells Fargo & Co (WFC US)

China Banks – Biden, Vaccine, Provisions

There are conflicting factors at play in assessing banks, including Chinese banks, which will making the path forward that much more difficult to...

Daniel Tabbush

Global Banks – Cost Purge

We must expect the previously good delta in credit costs to wane or to reverse altogether alongside renewed lockdowns. To preserve profit, banks...

Daniel Tabbush

BCA – Profit Returns

It was only a matter of time. Many banks are seeing the same theme: reduced credit costs supporting profit. Indonesia’s Bank Central Asia is...

Daniel Tabbush

Citigroup – Watch The Negative Jaws

CITIGROUP: Investors Shouldn't Be Fooled By The EPS Beat Led By A Massive Pre-emptive Provision Cut. Bank Has Negative Operating Jaws, Worsening...

Thomas J. Monaco

Wells Fargo – The Great Provision Delta

Long-term perspective shows that Wells Fargo may be in for a period of incredibly low provisions, which should be beneficial to results going forward.

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)