Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 13/Dec, US crude inventories fell by 0.9m barrels, missing forecasts. Gasoline stocks rose more than anticipated, while distillate inventories declined more than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 125 Bcf for the week ending 13/Dec, beating analyst expectations of a 123 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 3.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Major analysts lowered their 12-month PTs on Exxon, SLB, Halliburton, and Occidental. Also, Barclays downgraded its rating on Halliburton to Equalweight from Overweight.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 13/Dec, US crude inventories fell by 0.9m barrels, missing forecasts. Gasoline stocks rose more than anticipated, while distillate inventories declined more than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 125 Bcf for the week ending 13/Dec, beating analyst expectations of a 123 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 3.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Major analysts lowered their 12-month PTs on Exxon, SLB, Halliburton, and Occidental. Also, Barclays downgraded its rating on Halliburton to Equalweight from Overweight.


[ETP 2024/51] Fed’s Hawkish Tone Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Soars on Rising LNG Exports

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ally-financial-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9683:1" rel="noopener">Ally Financial (ALLY US)</a> gave a poor view of now and the immediate future for credit costs within its primary loan book, used cars for subprime borrowers</li>
<li>There is often good read-through for mainstream banks and overall credit metrics, we saw this in Thailand before 1997 and in the US with Indymac, Countrywide, Household</li>
<li>If the Fed has a better view on granular data than one single finance company, we believe they will use this data when considering rate cut magnitude, <span><strong>next week</strong></span>
</li>
</ul>



Ally Financial (ALLY US) gave a poor view of now and the immediate future for credit costs within its primary loan book, used cars for subprime borrowers
There is often good read-through for mainstream banks and overall credit metrics, we saw this in Thailand before 1997 and in the US with Indymac, Countrywide, Household
If the Fed has a better view on granular data than one single finance company, we believe they will use this data when considering rate cut magnitude, next week



Ally Financial - Suggests Large Fed Cut, Credit Cost Guidance Worsening, Fringe Finco View Can Lead

<ul>
<li>The risk for US small banks is clear with the major charge taken by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-york-community-bancorp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1193:1" rel="noopener">New York Community Bank (NYCB US)</a> for its CRE exposure</li>
<li>Small banks in the US, those outside the largest 25 by assets, have 45% of their loans in CRE which equates to 2.9x shareholders' equity </li>
<li>The reality is that NYCB's credit costs are now far higher than in the recessionary period of the early 1990s, showing what some banks can face in coming quarters</li>
</ul>


The risk for US small banks is clear with the major charge taken by New York Community Bank (NYCB US) for its CRE exposure
Small banks in the US, those outside the largest 25 by assets, have 45% of their loans in CRE which equates to 2.9x shareholders' equity 
The reality is that NYCB's credit costs are now far higher than in the recessionary period of the early 1990s, showing what some banks can face in coming quarters


US Banks - NYCB Credit Costs Are Much Higher than in the Early 1990s

Financial sector veteran, KT Capital Group

Fern Wang

Financial sector veteran

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Unrealized HTM losses continued to balloon as interest rates crept higher.</li>
<li>What has caused SVB's demise seems to have now been forgotten and ignored by investors.</li>
<li>We took a deep dive into 3 U.S. Banks, First Foundation, Wells Fargo and Bank of America on their HTM losses.</li>
</ul>


Unrealized HTM losses continued to balloon as interest rates crept higher.
What has caused SVB's demise seems to have now been forgotten and ignored by investors.
We took a deep dive into 3 U.S. Banks, First Foundation, Wells Fargo and Bank of America on their HTM losses.


Investors Have Been Buried Their Head in The Sand on Billions of Unrealized HTM Losses

<ul>
<li>Weekly balance sheets give a view of underlying credit conditions in the US and they are not positive. Lending growth continues to decelerate and could reach negative growth soon. </li>
<li>Cash balances are rising and this suggests that US large banks are not comfortable with risk and also seeing less opportunities. Cash/loans ratio rising fastest in most recent week. </li>
<li>Large time deposits cost the most, and their growth rate is now 109% YoY in the most recent week, rising more than loans in each of the past 3 weeks.</li>
</ul>


Weekly balance sheets give a view of underlying credit conditions in the US and they are not positive. Lending growth continues to decelerate and could reach negative growth soon. 
Cash balances are rising and this suggests that US large banks are not comfortable with risk and also seeing less opportunities. Cash/loans ratio rising fastest in most recent week. 
Large time deposits cost the most, and their growth rate is now 109% YoY in the most recent week, rising more than loans in each of the past 3 weeks.


US Large Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets: Decelerating Loans, Rising Cash, Big Time Deposits +109% YoY

United States

Wells Fargo & Company is a diversified financial services company providing banking, insurance, investments, mortgage, leasing, credit cards, and consumer finance.  The Company operates through physical stores, the Internet and other distribution channels across North America and elsewhere internationally.

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Wells Fargo & Co (WFC US)

[ETP 2024/51] Fed’s Hawkish Tone Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Soars on Rising LNG Exports

US crude inventories fell, but gasoline stocks rose and natural gas inventories beat expectations. Major analysts lowered PTs on Exxon, SLB,...

Mint Finance

Ally Financial - Suggests Large Fed Cut, Credit Cost Guidance Worsening, Fringe Finco View Can Lead

New disclosure, comments, guidance from Ally Financial show a major deterioration in credit metrics now, in coming months, which can mean a larger...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - NYCB Credit Costs Are Much Higher than in the Early 1990s

US CRE loan risk is clearest now with the NYCB charge taken in 4Q23, putting its credit costs now well higher than the recessionary period in...

Daniel Tabbush

Investors Have Been Buried Their Head in The Sand on Billions of Unrealized HTM Losses

Unrealized HTM losses continue to balloon. What has caused SVB's demise seems to have now been forgotten. We took a deep dive into 3 U.S. banks to...

Fern Wang

US Large Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets: Decelerating Loans, Rising Cash, Big Time Deposits +109% YoY

US large banks are seeing loan growth decelerating, cash rising, large time deposits up 109% YoY in most recent week. Weekly B/S data suggests net...

Daniel Tabbush

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[ETP 2024/51] Fed’s Hawkish Tone Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Soars on Rising LNG Exports

​US crude inventories fell, but gasoline stocks rose and natural gas inventories beat expectations. Major analysts lowered PTs on Exxon, SLB,...

Mint Finance

Ally Financial - Suggests Large Fed Cut, Credit Cost Guidance Worsening, Fringe Finco View Can Lead

New disclosure, comments, guidance from Ally Financial show a major deterioration in credit metrics now, in coming months, which can mean a larger...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - NYCB Credit Costs Are Much Higher than in the Early 1990s

US CRE loan risk is clearest now with the NYCB charge taken in 4Q23, putting its credit costs now well higher than the recessionary period in...

Daniel Tabbush

Investors Have Been Buried Their Head in The Sand on Billions of Unrealized HTM Losses

Unrealized HTM losses continue to balloon. What has caused SVB's demise seems to have now been forgotten. We took a deep dive into 3 U.S. banks to...

Fern Wang

US Large Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets: Decelerating Loans, Rising Cash, Big Time Deposits +109% YoY

US large banks are seeing loan growth decelerating, cash rising, large time deposits up 109% YoY in most recent week. Weekly B/S data suggests net...

Daniel Tabbush

US crude inventories fell, but gasoline stocks rose and natural gas inventories beat expectations. Major analysts lowered PTs on Exxon, SLB,...