IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Global Digital Niaga Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-digital-niaga-pt-blibli" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34881:1" rel="noopener">Blibli (1437710D IJ)</a> priced its IPO at IDR450 per share to raise net proceeds of US$508 million. The shares will start trading on 8 November.</li>
<li>We have previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blibli-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82294" rel="noopener">Blibli IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blibli-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82376" rel="noopener">Blibli IPO: The Bear Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blibli-vs-tokopedia-vs-bukalapak-vs-lazada-vs-shopee" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82473" rel="noopener">Blibli Vs Tokopedia Vs Bukalapak Vs Lazada Vs Shopee</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blibli-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82555" rel="noopener">Blibli IPO: Valuation Insights</a>.   </li>
<li>Despite peer multiple derating, the IPO price remains unattractive compared to global and Asian-focused e-commerce peers. </li>
</ul>



Blibli (1437710D IJ) priced its IPO at IDR450 per share to raise net proceeds of US$508 million. The shares will start trading on 8 November.
We have previously discussed the IPO in Blibli IPO: The Bull Case, Blibli IPO: The Bear Case, Blibli Vs Tokopedia Vs Bukalapak Vs Lazada Vs Shopee, Blibli IPO: Valuation Insights.   
Despite peer multiple derating, the IPO price remains unattractive compared to global and Asian-focused e-commerce peers. 


Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Sales declines, margin compression, cuts in SG&amp;A and cuts in guidance and estimates feature in our Declining Businesses model.  </li>
<li>Declining business shorts tend to be lower beta, have longer time horizons, and tend to produce steadier (although slower) short returns. </li>
<li>Today we are flagging :  Itron, Xerox, Wayfair, and Overstock</li>
</ul>


Sales declines, margin compression, cuts in SG&amp;A and cuts in guidance and estimates feature in our Declining Businesses model.  
Declining business shorts tend to be lower beta, have longer time horizons, and tend to produce steadier (although slower) short returns. 
Today we are flagging :  Itron, Xerox, Wayfair, and Overstock


Declining Business Short Candidates:  Itron, Xerox, Wayfair, Overstock

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-digital-niaga-pt-blibli" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34881:1" rel="noopener">Blibli (1437710D IJ)</a>, a leading Indonesian e-commerce player, has launched an IDR8.2 trillion (US$530 million) Indonesian IPO. Bookbuilding is from 17 to 24 October.</li>
<li>We have previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blibli-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82294" rel="noopener">Blibli IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blibli-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82376" rel="noopener">Blibli IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blibli-vs-tokopedia-vs-bukalapak-vs-lazada-vs-shopee" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82473" rel="noopener">Blibli Vs Tokopedia Vs Bukalapak Vs Lazada Vs Shopee</a>. </li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass.</li>
</ul>



Blibli (1437710D IJ), a leading Indonesian e-commerce player, has launched an IDR8.2 trillion (US$530 million) Indonesian IPO. Bookbuilding is from 17 to 24 October.
We have previously discussed the IPO in Blibli IPO: The Bull Case, Blibli IPO: The Bear Case and Blibli Vs Tokopedia Vs Bukalapak Vs Lazada Vs Shopee. 
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass.


Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input.  </li>
<li>The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.</li>
<li>This week we flag: BridgeBio, Wayfair, Archaea Energy, Enviva Inc.</li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input.  
The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.
This week we flag: BridgeBio, Wayfair, Archaea Energy, Enviva Inc.


Solvency Risk Short Candidates: BridgeBio, Wayfair, Archaea Energy, Enviva

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (1379371D IJ)</a> is the leading digital ecosystem in Southeast Asia. It seeking to raise up to $1.3 billion. Bookbuilding ends on 21 March.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/goto-gojek-tokopedia-ipo-initiation-island-shopping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:67047" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO Initiation: Island Shopping</a>, we noted that the fundamentals are mixed as the high growth is accompanied by ongoing losses and cash burn. </li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the price range is aggressive and unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass. </li>
</ul>



GoTo (1379371D IJ) is the leading digital ecosystem in Southeast Asia. It seeking to raise up to $1.3 billion. Bookbuilding ends on 21 March.
In GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO Initiation: Island Shopping, we noted that the fundamentals are mixed as the high growth is accompanied by ongoing losses and cash burn. 
Our valuation analysis suggests that the price range is aggressive and unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass. 


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO: Valuation Insights

United States

Wayfair Inc. retails household goods online. The Company offers bedroom, living room, kitchen and dining, home entertainment, home office, game room and bar, patio, hallway and entryway, and bathroom furniture. Wayfair offers products and services in the United States.

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Wayfair Inc Class A (W US)

Blibli IPO: Trading Debut

The shares will start trading on 8 November. Despite peer multiple derating, the IPO price remains unattractive compared to global and Asian...

Arun George

Declining Business Short Candidates: Itron, Xerox, Wayfair, Overstock

Declining business shorts earn profits by following negative business momentum. Today we are flagging: Itron, Xerox, Wayfair, Overstock.

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Blibli IPO: Valuation Insights

Bookbuilding will close on 24 October. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass.

Arun George

Solvency Risk Short Candidates: BridgeBio, Wayfair, Archaea Energy, Enviva

This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows. This week we flag: BridgeBio, Wayfair,...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the price range is aggressive and unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass. Books will close on 21 March....

Arun George

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