New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Warehouse Group Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Warehouse Group's (WHS) 1Q25 trading update provided another stark reminder of how challenging operating conditions are for domestic retailers.</li>
<li>Sales declines across all of its brands continue, and competitive pricing pressure is rising, which is impacting gross margins.</li>
<li>Unfortunately for WHS, it already has thin operating margins and an inflated cost base, so any pressure on gross margins has a material impact on its bottom line. </li>
</ul>


The Warehouse Group's (WHS) 1Q25 trading update provided another stark reminder of how challenging operating conditions are for domestic retailers.
Sales declines across all of its brands continue, and competitive pricing pressure is rising, which is impacting gross margins.
Unfortunately for WHS, it already has thin operating margins and an inflated cost base, so any pressure on gross margins has a material impact on its bottom line. 


The Warehouse Group - Red Alert on Margins

<ul><li>The Warehouse Group (WHS) reported a challenging FY24 result.</li><li>Management is committed to a turnaround in Red Sheds, but any turnaround will take time, and investors will want to see tangible signs of improvement before re-rating the stock.</li><li>In the meantime, domestic consumer spending remains weak, market share losses to key peers continue, and there will be a period of consolidation to sell through old stock. </li></ul>

The Warehouse Group (WHS) reported a challenging FY24 result.Management is committed to a turnaround in Red Sheds, but any turnaround will take time, and investors will want to see tangible signs of improvement before re-rating the stock.In the meantime, domestic consumer spending remains weak, market share losses to key peers continue, and there will be a period of consolidation to sell through old stock. 

The Warehouse Group - Stuck in the Red; Down to UNDERPERFORM

<ul><li>The Warehouse Group (WHS) is the second NZ listed retailer in as many days to provide a disappointing trading update.</li><li>WHS guided to a full-year sales decline of -6% to -7% and EBIT (pre IFRS-16) of NZ$22m–NZ$30m, which implies double-digit declines in 4Q24 sales and a second-half operating loss.</li><li>The NZ consumer is clearly under increased pressure, with company commentary and channel checks suggesting that the rate of deterioration in spending has accelerated over recent weeks. </li></ul>

The Warehouse Group (WHS) is the second NZ listed retailer in as many days to provide a disappointing trading update.WHS guided to a full-year sales decline of -6% to -7% and EBIT (pre IFRS-16) of NZ$22m–NZ$30m, which implies double-digit declines in 4Q24 sales and a second-half operating loss.The NZ consumer is clearly under increased pressure, with company commentary and channel checks suggesting that the rate of deterioration in spending has accelerated over recent weeks. 

The Warehouse Group - Tough Times Roll On

<ul><li>The Warehouse Group (WHS) reported a weaker-than-expected 3Q24 sales update.</li><li>While we had expected the domestic operating backdrop to remain challenging, the biggest negative surprise was the fall-off in Noel Leeming sales, with both Red and Blue sheds coming in broadly in-line with our expectations.</li><li>Gross margins were also negatively impacted, falling -130 bps on the prior year.  </li></ul>

The Warehouse Group (WHS) reported a weaker-than-expected 3Q24 sales update.While we had expected the domestic operating backdrop to remain challenging, the biggest negative surprise was the fall-off in Noel Leeming sales, with both Red and Blue sheds coming in broadly in-line with our expectations.Gross margins were also negatively impacted, falling -130 bps on the prior year.  

The Warehouse Group - Noel Profit, Noel Cry

<ul><li>The Warehouse Group (WHS) reported a 1H24 that was broadly in-line with our expectations.</li><li>The more significant revelation was that the group has doubled down on its strategic focus on core brands, with the announcement to exit The Market.</li><li>WHS has had a patchy history in acquiring businesses and attempting to grow outside of its key competencies.</li></ul>

The Warehouse Group (WHS) reported a 1H24 that was broadly in-line with our expectations.The more significant revelation was that the group has doubled down on its strategic focus on core brands, with the announcement to exit The Market.WHS has had a patchy history in acquiring businesses and attempting to grow outside of its key competencies.

New Zealand

The Warehouse Group Limited operates general merchandise and stationery supply retail stores throughout New Zealand.

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Warehouse Group Limited (WHS NZ)

The Warehouse Group - Red Alert on Margins

The Warehouse Group's (WHS) 1Q25 trading update provided another stark reminder of how challenging operating conditions are for domestic retailers.

Forsyth Barr

The Warehouse Group - Stuck in the Red; Down to UNDERPERFORM

Management is committed to a turnaround in Red Sheds, but any turnaround will take time, and investors will want to see tangible signs of...

Forsyth Barr

The Warehouse Group - Tough Times Roll On

WHS guided to a full-year sales decline of -6% to -7% and EBIT (pre IFRS-16) of NZ$22m–NZ$30m, which implies double-digit declines in 4Q24 sales...

Forsyth Barr

The Warehouse Group - Noel Profit, Noel Cry

The Warehouse Group (WHS) reported a weaker-than-expected 3Q24 sales update. While we had expected the domestic operating backdrop to remain...

Forsyth Barr

The Warehouse Group - Back to Basics

The more significant revelation was that the group has doubled down on its strategic focus on core brands, with the announcement to exit The Market.

Forsyth Barr

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