Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Thanks to Covid-19 and the more long-term shift to digital shopping, the big three e-commerce platforms, Amazon, Rakuten and Z Holdings, plundered the physical retail sector last year, grabbing a significantly increased share of consumption, but the wider battle for digital dominance isn’t over yet.</p><p>Z Holdings is just closing on its deal with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/line-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1" rel="noopener">LINE Corp (3938 JP)</a> and following that up with a proposed ¥500 billion investment programme which includes a focus on e-commerce. </p><p>But <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> has already responded this week with its breakthrough deal with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walmart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Walmart (WMT US).</a></p><p>Meanwhile, despite these efforts by the two domestics giants, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> remained Japan's largest e-commerce operator in 2020 (by Gross Transaction Values) and doesn't look like giving up its poll position anytime soon.</p><p>ZHD has a lot of advantages and strengths on the customer capture and marketing side. It has one of the biggest and more alluring datasets of Japanese consumers out there, which is not just social media handles and click data but names and addresses and – adding in Zozo data – body and foot size and, as of last month, skin type.</p><p>ZHD needs to work hard to integrate all this and if it does so, will have a shot at leadership in digital ecosystems, but to win in e-commerce it must do something about fulfilment where it remains worryingly weak.</p>

Thanks to Covid-19 and the more long-term shift to digital shopping, the big three e-commerce platforms, Amazon, Rakuten and Z Holdings, plundered the physical retail sector last year, grabbing a significantly increased share of consumption, but the wider battle for digital dominance isn’t over yet.Z Holdings is just closing on its deal with LINE Corp (3938 JP) and following that up with a proposed ¥500 billion investment programme which includes a focus on e-commerce. But Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) has already responded this week with its breakthrough deal with Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP), Tencent Holdings (700 HK) and Walmart (WMT US).Meanwhile, despite these efforts by the two domestics giants, Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) remained Japan's largest e-commerce operator in 2020 (by Gross Transaction Values) and doesn't look like giving up its poll position anytime soon.ZHD has a lot of advantages and strengths on the customer capture and marketing side. It has one of the biggest and more alluring datasets of Japanese consumers out there, which is not just social media handles and click data but names and addresses and – adding in Zozo data – body and foot size and, as of last month, skin type.ZHD needs to work hard to integrate all this and if it does so, will have a shot at leadership in digital ecosystems, but to win in e-commerce it must do something about fulfilment where it remains worryingly weak.

E-Commerce Wars in Japan: How Z Holdings Is Facing off Against Rakuten and Amazon

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<p>Rakuten’s announcement of a ¥242bn investment from Japan Post, Tencent and Wal-Mart is truly a game changer. The proceeds should get it through peak investment for mobile and enhance the value of its fulfilment expansion. It also gives Rakuten, which has looked outmatched in its competitive fight against larger rivals like Softbank/Z Holdings, a trip of powerful allies in eCommerce and fintech. The Tencent participation is particularly interesting as that company expands its own competitive fight with Alibaba. The challenge for Rakuten has not diminished but for the first time since it announced its mobile ambitions in 2017, we feel it has the resources it needs.</p>

Rakuten’s announcement of a ¥242bn investment from Japan Post, Tencent and Wal-Mart is truly a game changer. The proceeds should get it through peak investment for mobile and enhance the value of its fulfilment expansion. It also gives Rakuten, which has looked outmatched in its competitive fight against larger rivals like Softbank/Z Holdings, a trip of powerful allies in eCommerce and fintech. The Tencent participation is particularly interesting as that company expands its own competitive fight with Alibaba. The challenge for Rakuten has not diminished but for the first time since it announced its mobile ambitions in 2017, we feel it has the resources it needs.

Rakuten - Strategic Investments Raise Needed Cash and Level the Playing Field

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Hellobike, an Alibaba’s investee and traffic source, will go public in 2Q21.</li>
<li>NetEase’s Cloud Music is seeking IPO next year.</li>
<li>The authorities said Tencent and Baidu were fined not because they eliminate competition, but because they forgot to ask for approval.</li>
<li>Tencent invests in Rakuten.</li>
</ul>


Hellobike, an Alibaba’s investee and traffic source, will go public in 2Q21.
NetEase’s Cloud Music is seeking IPO next year.
The authorities said Tencent and Baidu were fined not because they eliminate competition, but because they forgot to ask for approval.
Tencent invests in Rakuten.


China Internet Weekly (Mar 15): BABA & NTES Subsidiaries Seek IPO, Tencent Invests in Rakuten

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a> is the largest e-commerce platform in South Korea, according to Euromonitor. Coupang is best known for Rocket Delivery, which provides free, next-day delivery for orders placed any time of the day.</p></div><div><p>Coupang has priced its IPO at $35 per share, above the previously upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share. The number of the offer shares has increased from 120 million to 130 million shares due to a 10 million shares increase in the secondary tranche. At the final IPO price of $35 per share, Coupang will have a market cap of $60 billion. </p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-initiation-delivering-the-goods" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48125" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO Initiation: Delivering the Goods</a>, we opined that Coupang's fundamentals tick all the right boxes and worth a look, in our view. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48708" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO: Valuation Insights</a> we noted was attractively priced for its growth potential vs global e-commerce peers at the original IPO price range of $27-30 per share. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-upsized-deal-size" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48991" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO: Upsized Deal Size</a>, Coupang remained attractive at the upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share.</p></div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of $39.46 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price has reasonable upside potential. </p></div></div>

Coupang (CPNG US) is the largest e-commerce platform in South Korea, according to Euromonitor. Coupang is best known for Rocket Delivery, which provides free, next-day delivery for orders placed any time of the day.Coupang has priced its IPO at $35 per share, above the previously upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share. The number of the offer shares has increased from 120 million to 130 million shares due to a 10 million shares increase in the secondary tranche. At the final IPO price of $35 per share, Coupang will have a market cap of $60 billion. In Coupang IPO Initiation: Delivering the Goods, we opined that Coupang's fundamentals tick all the right boxes and worth a look, in our view. In Coupang IPO: Valuation Insights we noted was attractively priced for its growth potential vs global e-commerce peers at the original IPO price range of $27-30 per share. In Coupang IPO: Upsized Deal Size, Coupang remained attractive at the upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share.Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of $39.46 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price has reasonable upside potential. 

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<div class="content-highlight">
<p><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-softbank-backed-coupang-reveals-134723758.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang</a>, the largest e-commerce company in Korea, is getting ready to complete its IPO in the New York Stock Exchange in the next few weeks. Coupang is aiming for a valuation of nearly <strong>$50 billion.</strong> This IPO is expected to be the largest IPO by an non-US company in the United States since the Alibaba IPO in 2014. Coupang was last valued at $9 billion in its last private fund raising around 2018. The IPO placeholder is put at $1 billion but this amount is likely to be raised much further. </p>
<p>Coupang has received nearly $3 billion from Softbank and Softbank's Vision Fund since the inception of the company. Other major investors of Coupang include Blackrock, Sequoia Capital, and Bill Ackman. Major underwriters of the Coupang IPO include Goldman Sachs, Allen &amp; Co, JP Morgan, BofA Securities and Citigroup. </p>
</div>


Coupang, the largest e-commerce company in Korea, is getting ready to complete its IPO in the New York Stock Exchange in the next few weeks. Coupang is aiming for a valuation of nearly $50 billion. This IPO is expected to be the largest IPO by an non-US company in the United States since the Alibaba IPO in 2014. Coupang was last valued at $9 billion in its last private fund raising around 2018. The IPO placeholder is put at $1 billion but this amount is likely to be raised much further. 
Coupang has received nearly $3 billion from Softbank and Softbank's Vision Fund since the inception of the company. Other major investors of Coupang include Blackrock, Sequoia Capital, and Bill Ackman. Major underwriters of the Coupang IPO include Goldman Sachs, Allen &amp; Co, JP Morgan, BofA Securities and Citigroup. 


United States

Walmart Inc. operates discount stores, supercenters, and neighborhood markets. The Company offers merchandise such as apparel, house wares, small appliances, electronics, musical instruments, books, home improvement, shoes, jewelry, toddler, games, household essentials, pets, pharmaceutical products, party supplies, and automotive tools. Walmart serves customers worldwide.

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Walmart (WMT US)

E-Commerce Wars in Japan: How Z Holdings Is Facing off Against Rakuten and Amazon

2020 boosted the fortunes of the big 3 e-commerce platforms in Japan but Z Holdings remains far behind Amazon Japan and Rakuten in sales volume and...

Michael Causton

Rakuten - Strategic Investments Raise Needed Cash and Level the Playing Field

The investments in Rakuten solve near-term cash concerns but it is the presence of powerful allies that make this a milestone

Kirk Boodry

China Internet Weekly (Mar 15): BABA & NTES Subsidiaries Seek IPO, Tencent Invests in Rakuten

Tencent was fined not because they eliminate competition, but because they forgot to ask for approval. Tencent invests in Rakuten. Hellobike and...

Ming Lu

Coupang IPO: Trading Debut

Coupang has priced its IPO at $35 per share, above the previously upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows...

Arun George

Coupang IPO Preview

Coupang, the largest e-commerce company in Korea, is getting ready to complete its IPO in the New York Stock Exchange in the next few weeks....

Douglas Kim

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