New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>New Zealand: Resi slowdown drags down construction forecasts</li><li>Australia: Australian outlook comments robust despite softening residential</li><li>International: Millions of empty flats threatens to plunge China’s troubled property market further into crisis</li></ul>

New Zealand: Resi slowdown drags down construction forecastsAustralia: Australian outlook comments robust despite softening residentialInternational: Millions of empty flats threatens to plunge China’s troubled property market further into crisis

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Strong FY22 driven by price and margin gains: VSL's FY22 EBITDA was up +82% on the prior year to NZ$243m and adjusted NPAT +119% to NZ$124m</li><li>Ulrich synergies outlined with potential for more: VSL's initial assessment of the Ullrich synergies is NZ$10m+ with benefits to become more tangible from 1H24</li><li>Guidance for a flat year largely reflecting margin pressure: VSL guided to FY23 EBITDA and NPAT of NZ$215–235m and NZ$93–107m</li></ul>

Strong FY22 driven by price and margin gains: VSL's FY22 EBITDA was up +82% on the prior year to NZ$243m and adjusted NPAT +119% to NZ$124mUlrich synergies outlined with potential for more: VSL's initial assessment of the Ullrich synergies is NZ$10m+ with benefits to become more tangible from 1H24Guidance for a flat year largely reflecting margin pressure: VSL guided to FY23 EBITDA and NPAT of NZ$215–235m and NZ$93–107m

Vulcan Steel: FY22 Result — Steel on Top

<ul><li>Vulcan Steel has reported a very strong debut result with FY22 EBITDA (before significant items) and NPAT doubling to NZ$243m and NZ$181m respectively</li><li>VSL expects some normalisation in industry margins in FY23 driven by lower global steel prices</li><li>We expect minimal changes to operating forecasts on the back of FY23 guidance but higher interest rates will weigh on NPAT</li></ul>

Vulcan Steel has reported a very strong debut result with FY22 EBITDA (before significant items) and NPAT doubling to NZ$243m and NZ$181m respectivelyVSL expects some normalisation in industry margins in FY23 driven by lower global steel pricesWe expect minimal changes to operating forecasts on the back of FY23 guidance but higher interest rates will weigh on NPAT

Vulcan Steel: FY22 Result – First Impressions

<ul><li>June quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production suggests that while NZ construction activity remains at robust levels nationally some regions have rolled over the peak</li><li>Solid 2Q22 volumes but some regions rolling over the peak</li><li>RMC production is the first NZ construction indicator for 2Q CY22, and including cement and aggregates a significant exposure for Fletcher Building (FBU).</li></ul>

June quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production suggests that while NZ construction activity remains at robust levels nationally some regions have rolled over the peakSolid 2Q22 volumes but some regions rolling over the peakRMC production is the first NZ construction indicator for 2Q CY22, and including cement and aggregates a significant exposure for Fletcher Building (FBU).

Building Sector: Ready-Mix Concrete — First Cracks Appearing?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 4 trading days to go in the review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX indices. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.</li>
<li>There could be 6 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, increasing to 8 if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6148:1" rel="noopener">AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU)</a> continues to be halted and if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK)</a> is privatised.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month. Short interest has increased on a few potential deletes. There will be pre-positions built up.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 trading days to go in the review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX indices. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.
There could be 6 changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), increasing to 8 if AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU) continues to be halted and if Link Administration (LNK) is privatised.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month. Short interest has increased on a few potential deletes. There will be pre-positions built up.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

New Zealand

Vulcan Steel Ltd operates as a metals distributing and processing company. The Company offers stainless and engineering steel products. Vulcan Steel serves customers in Australia and New Zealand.

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Vulcan Steel Limited (VSL NZ)

Building Weekly (26-Aug-2022)

Construction spending forecast to fall -18% to NZ$42bn by 2027, primarily driven by forecast resi construction down -36% (c.-NZ$11bn) while non...

Forsyth Barr

Vulcan Steel: FY22 Result — Steel on Top

As expected Vulcan Steel (VSL) reported a strong FY22 driven by rising prices and margins as well as solid cost control

Forsyth Barr

Vulcan Steel: FY22 Result – First Impressions

As expected Vulcan Steel has reported a very strong debut result with FY22 EBITDA (before significant items) and NPAT doubling to NZ$243m and...

Forsyth Barr

Building Sector: Ready-Mix Concrete — First Cracks Appearing?

June quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production suggests that while NZ construction activity remains at robust levels nationally some regions have...

Forsyth Barr

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

There are a LOT of potential changes to the S&P/ASX indices as we near the end of the review period. The potential adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Building Weekly (26-Aug-2022)

Construction spending forecast to fall -18% to NZ$42bn by 2027, primarily driven by forecast resi construction down -36% (c.-NZ$11bn) while non...

Forsyth Barr

Vulcan Steel: FY22 Result — Steel on Top

As expected Vulcan Steel (VSL) reported a strong FY22 driven by rising prices and margins as well as solid cost control

Forsyth Barr

Vulcan Steel: FY22 Result – First Impressions

As expected Vulcan Steel has reported a very strong debut result with FY22 EBITDA (before significant items) and NPAT doubling to NZ$243m and...

Forsyth Barr

Building Sector: Ready-Mix Concrete — First Cracks Appearing?

June quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production suggests that while NZ construction activity remains at robust levels nationally some regions have...

Forsyth Barr

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

There are a LOT of potential changes to the S&P/ASX indices as we near the end of the review period. The potential adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears