Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We currently see one change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and 10 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.</li>
<li>There could be an addition to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in January following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a>'s acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> is a potential inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>'s in-specie distribution of PEXA shares to its shareholders is approved.</li>
</ul>


We currently see one change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 10 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
There could be an addition to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in January following Pendal Group (PDL AU)'s acquisition by Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).

PEXA Group (PXA AU) is a potential inclusion to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) if Link Administration (LNK AU)'s in-specie distribution of PEXA shares to its shareholders is approved.


S&P/​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>New Zealand: Solid 1Q for Vulcan Steel; Construction costs still rising; Fletcher Building launches low CO2 cement</li><li>Australia: Stockland residential sales rates decline; Weather and inflation hit Adbri</li><li>International: China’s building season – a flop so far; Chinese banks pledge enhanced support for economy as Xi calls for growth</li></ul>

New Zealand: Solid 1Q for Vulcan Steel; Construction costs still rising; Fletcher Building launches low CO2 cementAustralia: Stockland residential sales rates decline; Weather and inflation hit AdbriInternational: China’s building season – a flop so far; Chinese banks pledge enhanced support for economy as Xi calls for growth

<ul>
<li>New Zealand: House sales and prices tracking down; Migration still negative and mortgage lending continues to decline; Residential rent growth slowing</li>
<li>Australia: New home sales continue to slide; Lending approvals tick lower; Construction headwinds showing in 2Q22</li>
<li>US housing data mixed: Housing permits tumble, starts up; Existing home sales tick lower, new sales jump</li>
</ul>


New Zealand: House sales and prices tracking down; Migration still negative and mortgage lending continues to decline; Residential rent growth slowing
Australia: New home sales continue to slide; Lending approvals tick lower; Construction headwinds showing in 2Q22
US housing data mixed: Housing permits tumble, starts up; Existing home sales tick lower, new sales jump


<ul><li>New Zealand: Resi slowdown drags down construction forecasts</li><li>Australia: Australian outlook comments robust despite softening residential</li><li>International: Millions of empty flats threatens to plunge China’s troubled property market further into crisis</li></ul>

New Zealand: Resi slowdown drags down construction forecastsAustralia: Australian outlook comments robust despite softening residentialInternational: Millions of empty flats threatens to plunge China’s troubled property market further into crisis

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li><p>Strong FY22 driven by price and margin gains: VSL's FY22 EBITDA was up +82% on the prior year to NZ$243m and adjusted NPAT +119% to NZ$124m</p></li><li>Ulrich synergies outlined with potential for more: VSL's initial assessment of the Ullrich synergies is NZ$10m+ with benefits to become more tangible from 1H24</li><li>Guidance for a flat year largely reflecting margin pressure: VSL guided to FY23 EBITDA and NPAT of NZ$215–235m and NZ$93–107m</li></ul>

Strong FY22 driven by price and margin gains: VSL's FY22 EBITDA was up +82% on the prior year to NZ$243m and adjusted NPAT +119% to NZ$124mUlrich synergies outlined with potential for more: VSL's initial assessment of the Ullrich synergies is NZ$10m+ with benefits to become more tangible from 1H24Guidance for a flat year largely reflecting margin pressure: VSL guided to FY23 EBITDA and NPAT of NZ$215–235m and NZ$93–107m

Vulcan Steel: FY22 Result — Steel on Top

New Zealand

Vulcan Steel Ltd operates as a metals distributing and processing company. The Company offers stainless and engineering steel products. Vulcan Steel serves customers in Australia and New Zealand.

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Vulcan Steel Limited (VSL NZ)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)

There could be an adhoc ASX200 inclusion in Jan. Then there could be 1 change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the ASX200...

Brian Freitas

Building Weekly (21-Oct-2022)

New Zealand: Solid 1Q for Vulcan Steel; Construction costs still rising; Cost of building homes still stoking annual inflation; Mortgage rates rise...

Forsyth Barr

Building Weekly (28-Sep-2022)

New Zealand: House sales and prices tracking down; Migration still negative and mortgage lending continues to decline; Residential rent growth slowing

Forsyth Barr

Building Weekly (26-Aug-2022)

Construction spending forecast to fall -18% to NZ$42bn by 2027, primarily driven by forecast resi construction down -36% (c.-NZ$11bn) while non...

Forsyth Barr

Vulcan Steel: FY22 Result — Steel on Top

As expected Vulcan Steel (VSL) reported a strong FY22 driven by rising prices and margins as well as solid cost control

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)

There could be an adhoc ASX200 inclusion in Jan. Then there could be 1 change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the ASX200...

Brian Freitas

Building Weekly (21-Oct-2022)

New Zealand: Solid 1Q for Vulcan Steel; Construction costs still rising; Cost of building homes still stoking annual inflation; Mortgage rates rise...

Forsyth Barr

Building Weekly (28-Sep-2022)

New Zealand: House sales and prices tracking down; Migration still negative and mortgage lending continues to decline; Residential rent growth slowing

Forsyth Barr

Building Weekly (26-Aug-2022)

Construction spending forecast to fall -18% to NZ$42bn by 2027, primarily driven by forecast resi construction down -36% (c.-NZ$11bn) while non...

Forsyth Barr

Vulcan Steel: FY22 Result — Steel on Top

As expected Vulcan Steel (VSL) reported a strong FY22 driven by rising prices and margins as well as solid cost control

Forsyth Barr

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)