European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during October. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 48.7% (vs. 46.6% as of 30 September); GBL, 40.9% (vs. 40.7%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 14% (14.9%); Industrivärden C, 2.4% (0.9%); Investor B, 2.8% (vs. 2.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 31.7% (vs. 35%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.5% (vs. 26%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during October. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 48.7% (vs. 46.6% as of 30 September); GBL, 40.9% (vs. 40.7%);
Heineken Holding, 14% (14.9%); Industrivärden C, 2.4% (0.9%); Investor B, 2.8% (vs. 2.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 31.7% (vs. 35%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.5% (vs. 26%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October'24 Report

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Horizon Robotics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> raised around US$800m, including over-allocation, in its Hong Kong IPO. </li>
<li>Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading updates.</li>
</ul>



Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m, including over-allocation, in its Hong Kong IPO. 
Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading updates.


Horizon Robotics IPO Trading - More than 55% of the Deal Taken up by Existing Shareholders

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Global smartphone shipments expected to increase beyond 2025, with OLED technology gaining popularity in tablets and notebooks while Mini LED becomes less preferred.</li><li>Uncertainty over whether Trump will end TSMC's subsidies for Arizona factory, impacting material suppliers benefiting from TSMC's growth in 3Q24.</li><li>PSMC chairman shifts from cautious approach towards India to optimism with new partnership with Tata, while Horizon Robotics' Hong Kong IPO supported by Alibaba, Baidu, and TSMC for manufacturing.</li></ul>

Global smartphone shipments expected to increase beyond 2025, with OLED technology gaining popularity in tablets and notebooks while Mini LED becomes less preferred.Uncertainty over whether Trump will end TSMC's subsidies for Arizona factory, impacting material suppliers benefiting from TSMC's growth in 3Q24.PSMC chairman shifts from cautious approach towards India to optimism with new partnership with Tata, while Horizon Robotics' Hong Kong IPO supported by Alibaba, Baidu, and TSMC for manufacturing.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Oct-2024): 2025+ global smartphone forecast.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a>, a provider of autonomous driving products and services, is seeking to raise up to US$696 million through a HKEx IPO.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/horizon-robotics-9660-hk-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:162681" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) IPO: The Bull Case</a>,</strong></em> we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on high related parties' revenue, customer concentration risk, pricing pressure, uncertain path to profitability, high cash conversion cycle and FCF burn.</li>
</ul>



Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), a provider of autonomous driving products and services, is seeking to raise up to US$696 million through a HKEx IPO.
In Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on high related parties' revenue, customer concentration risk, pricing pressure, uncertain path to profitability, high cash conversion cycle and FCF burn.


Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) IPO: The Bear Case

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a>, a provider of autonomous driving products and services, is seeking to raise up to US$696 million through a HKEx IPO.    </li>
<li>Horizon ranked fourth among all global ADAS and AD solution providers in China by solution installation volume in 2023 and 1H24, with a market share of 9.3% and 15.4%, respectively.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on a large TAM, a blue-chip customer base, a robust backlog, a core business in good health, a high gross margin, and a strong balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), a provider of autonomous driving products and services, is seeking to raise up to US$696 million through a HKEx IPO.    
Horizon ranked fourth among all global ADAS and AD solution providers in China by solution installation volume in 2023 and 1H24, with a market share of 9.3% and 15.4%, respectively.
The bull case rests on a large TAM, a blue-chip customer base, a robust backlog, a core business in good health, a high gross margin, and a strong balance sheet.


Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) IPO: The Bull Case

Germany

Volkswagen AG manufactures and sells vehicles. The Company offers economy and luxury automobiles, sports cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. Volkswagen serves customers worldwide.

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Volkswagen (VOW GR)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during October. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Horizon Robotics IPO Trading - More than 55% of the Deal Taken up by Existing Shareholders

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m, including over-allocation, in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Oct-2024): 2025+ global smartphone forecast.

Global smartphone market forecasts beyond 2025, OLED gaining popularity in tablets and notebooks while Mini LED fades; uncertainties around Trump's...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on high related parties' revenue, customer concentration risk, pricing pressure, uncertain path to profitability, high cash...

Arun George

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a large TAM, a blue-chip customer base, a robust backlog, a core business in good health, a high gross margin, and a strong...

Arun George

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