Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A disappointing wage agreement for German metal workers in November was an early indicator that trade unions will be a poor match against employers in upcoming wage negotiations. </li>
<li>The 5 most important wage battlegrounds to watch in Europe in Q2-Q3 will be Germany, UK, France, Italy and the Netherlands - read full case studies below.</li>
<li>Despite weak unions, current broad-based wage pressures of 4-5% is enough to keep core inflation TOO elevated in the Euro zone. The ECB has more work to do on tightening.</li>
</ul>


A disappointing wage agreement for German metal workers in November was an early indicator that trade unions will be a poor match against employers in upcoming wage negotiations. 
The 5 most important wage battlegrounds to watch in Europe in Q2-Q3 will be Germany, UK, France, Italy and the Netherlands - read full case studies below.
Despite weak unions, current broad-based wage pressures of 4-5% is enough to keep core inflation TOO elevated in the Euro zone. The ECB has more work to do on tightening.


Europe Wants to Get Paid – 5 Feuds to Look Out For

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during February. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 53.2%; GBL, 34.9%; Heineken Holding, 16.1%; Industrivärden C, 10.6%; </li>
<li>Investor B, 11.2%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 50.5%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 12.6%. Spreads tend to tighten in favourable market conditions.</li>
<li>Recommended trades are: GBL, Heineken Holding, Porsche Automobile Holding, and possibly CF Alba (long).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during February. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 53.2%; GBL, 34.9%; Heineken Holding, 16.1%; Industrivärden C, 10.6%; 
Investor B, 11.2%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 50.5%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 12.6%. Spreads tend to tighten in favourable market conditions.
Recommended trades are: GBL, Heineken Holding, Porsche Automobile Holding, and possibly CF Alba (long).


Selected European Holdcos and DLC: February‘23 Report

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Tax / Cover Story: China’s tax system gets a digital upgrade</li><li>Investment banking /: Investment banker Bao Fan is aiding an investigation, China Renaissance says</li><li>Corruption /: Ex-provincial vice governor indicted for bribery, leaking insider information</li></ul>

Tax / Cover Story: China’s tax system gets a digital upgradeInvestment banking /: Investment banker Bao Fan is aiding an investigation, China Renaissance saysCorruption /: Ex-provincial vice governor indicted for bribery, leaking insider information

CX Daily: China’s Tax System Gets a Digital Upgrade

<ul>
<li>Since mid-January, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (8 have widened, 10 tightened, 1 at same level).</li>
<li>Trade recommendations long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
<li>Trade recommendations long prefs / short ords: Carlsberg, Sixt, VW, Danieli, MFE-Media for Europe, Grifols, Atlas Copco, Ericsson.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-January, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (8 have widened, 10 tightened, 1 at same level).
Trade recommendations long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.
Trade recommendations long prefs / short ords: Carlsberg, Sixt, VW, Danieli, MFE-Media for Europe, Grifols, Atlas Copco, Ericsson.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February ‘23 Report

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened since New Year. Discounts to NAV (31 January): C.F.Alba, 49.7%; GBL, 35.3%; Heineken Holding, 17.4%; Industrivärden C, 13.8%; Investor B, 11.4%; </li>
<li>Porsche Automobile Holding, 47.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 14.8%. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts.</li>
<li>Recommended trades are: GBL, Porsche Automobile Holding, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened since New Year. Discounts to NAV (31 January): C.F.Alba, 49.7%; GBL, 35.3%; Heineken Holding, 17.4%; Industrivärden C, 13.8%; Investor B, 11.4%; 
Porsche Automobile Holding, 47.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 14.8%. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts.
Recommended trades are: GBL, Porsche Automobile Holding, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).


Selected European Holdcos and DLC: January‘23 Report

Germany

Volkswagen AG manufactures and sells vehicles. The Company offers economy and luxury automobiles, sports cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. Volkswagen serves customers worldwide.

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Volkswagen (Pref) (VOW3 GR)

Europe Wants to Get Paid – 5 Feuds to Look Out For

A decline in real wages across the European continent has heightened expectation for upcoming collective bargaining agreements. We point you to the...

Steno Research

Selected European Holdcos and DLC: February‘23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during February. Recommended trades are: GBL, Heineken Holding, Porsche Automobile...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CX Daily: China’s Tax System Gets a Digital Upgrade

Tax / Cover Story: China’s tax system gets a digital upgrade Investment banking /: Investment banker Bao Fan is aiding an investigation, China...

Caixin Global

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February ‘23 Report

Since mid-January, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (8 have widened, 10 tightened, 1 at same level).

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European Holdcos and DLC: January‘23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened since New Year. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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