European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since mid-March, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (5 have tightened, 12 widened, 2 remained at same level).</li>
<li>Views are unchanged. Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-March, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (5 have tightened, 12 widened, 2 remained at same level).
Views are unchanged. Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April‘24 Report

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/multichoice-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28016:1" rel="noopener">MultiChoice Group (MCG SJ)</a> and Canal+ announced a cooperation agreement (with exclusivity period) regarding Canal+’s mandatory offer at ZAR 125/share (c. $1.9 billion), 67% premium, 6.7x EV/25e EBITDA.</li>
<li>On both multiples and DCF, the offer seems fair. My fair value estimate (DCF-based) is ZAR 122.68/share (WACC 16.5%, 2.4% implied perpetuity growth rate).</li>
<li>Considering the 133% share decline from March-November 2023, shareholders must be relieved by the offer and will surely tender. My TP is ZAR 125. Gross spread is 5.7%. Buy.</li>
</ul>



MultiChoice Group (MCG SJ) and Canal+ announced a cooperation agreement (with exclusivity period) regarding Canal+’s mandatory offer at ZAR 125/share (c. $1.9 billion), 67% premium, 6.7x EV/25e EBITDA.
On both multiples and DCF, the offer seems fair. My fair value estimate (DCF-based) is ZAR 122.68/share (WACC 16.5%, 2.4% implied perpetuity growth rate).
Considering the 133% share decline from March-November 2023, shareholders must be relieved by the offer and will surely tender. My TP is ZAR 125. Gross spread is 5.7%. Buy.


<ul>
<li>Since mid-February, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 9 widened, 1 remained at same level).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-February, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 9 widened, 1 remained at same level).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March‘24 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-January, spreads have tightened, same as in December, across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have tightened, 6 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-January, spreads have tightened, same as in December, across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have tightened, 6 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February‘24 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-December, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have tightened, 7 widened, 2 at same level).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, <strong>Grifols (the most </strong><strong>interesting situation in this report)</strong>, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-December, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have tightened, 7 widened, 2 at same level).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols (the most interesting situation in this report), Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January‘24 Report

France

Vivendi, through its subsidiaries, conducts operations ranging from music, games and television to film and telecommunications.  The Company provides digital and pay television services, sells music compact discs (CDs), develops and distributes interactive entertainment, and operates mobile and fixed-line telecommunications.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Vivendi SA (VIV FP)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April‘24 Report

Since mid-March, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (5 have tightened, 12 widened,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Canal+/Multichoice Group: Agreed Offer

MultiChoice and Canal+ have reached a cooperation agreement with an offer of ZAR 125/share, which seems fair. Shareholders are likely to accept...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March‘24 Report

Since mid-February, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February‘24 Report

Since mid-January, spreads have tightened, same as in December, across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January‘24 Report

Since mid-December, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares. The spread of Grifols...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April‘24 Report

Since mid-March, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (5 have tightened, 12 widened,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Canal+/Multichoice Group: Agreed Offer

​MultiChoice and Canal+ have reached a cooperation agreement with an offer of ZAR 125/share, which seems fair. Shareholders are likely to accept...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March‘24 Report

Since mid-February, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February‘24 Report

Since mid-January, spreads have tightened, same as in December, across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January‘24 Report

Since mid-December, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares. The spread of Grifols...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MultiChoice and Canal+ have reached a cooperation agreement with an offer of ZAR 125/share, which seems fair. Shareholders are likely to accept...