Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 21st March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-money-uk-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22918:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Money UK (VUK AU/VMUK LN)</a>, UK's sixth largest retail bank, entered into a Scheme with Nationwide Building Society, at 220 pence/share, in cash.</li>
<li>The consideration is a solid 38% premium to undisturbed. And shareholders backed terms at the<a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240523/pdf/063v45k7bl776c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> 22nd May Court Meeting</a>. Plus UK's CMA signed off on the <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240722/pdf/065sh1mr1c2vn9.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">19th July</a>. </li>
<li>
What now? FCA/PRA approvals are the key remaining conditions. These regulatory approvals are imminent.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 21st March, Virgin Money UK (VUK AU/VMUK LN), UK's sixth largest retail bank, entered into a Scheme with Nationwide Building Society, at 220 pence/share, in cash.
The consideration is a solid 38% premium to undisturbed. And shareholders backed terms at the 22nd May Court Meeting. Plus UK's CMA signed off on the 19th July. 

What now? FCA/PRA approvals are the key remaining conditions. These regulatory approvals are imminent.


Nationwide/Virgin Money (VUK AU): At The Pointy End Of The Offer

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The UBS acquisition of Credit Suisse includes the write-off of CHF15.8bn (USD17bn) of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds, despite there being residual equity value for CS shareholders in the deal</li>
<li>AT1s are the most junior, loss absorbing of bonds; precedent exists for the zeroing of AT1s in Spain’s Banco Popular 2017 failure, but importantly this also included shareholders being zeroed</li>
<li>The Credit Suisse AT1 write-off is by far the biggest so far and this unconventional treatment of shareholders versus junior bondholders should lead European banks’ cost of equity to rise</li>
</ul>


The UBS acquisition of Credit Suisse includes the write-off of CHF15.8bn (USD17bn) of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds, despite there being residual equity value for CS shareholders in the deal
AT1s are the most junior, loss absorbing of bonds; precedent exists for the zeroing of AT1s in Spain’s Banco Popular 2017 failure, but importantly this also included shareholders being zeroed
The Credit Suisse AT1 write-off is by far the biggest so far and this unconventional treatment of shareholders versus junior bondholders should lead European banks’ cost of equity to rise


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 18th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD26.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, Australia And New Zealand Banking, Evolution Mining, BHP, Webjet.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 18th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD26.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, Australia And New Zealand Banking, Evolution Mining, BHP, Webjet.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 18th): Fortescue, Australia And New Zealand Banking, Evolution Mining

<ul>
<li>I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto (RIO AU)</a>'s tilt for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>, and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities  (H) (6837 HK)</a> merger.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-smiles-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2891:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17944:1" rel="noopener">Korea Zinc (010130 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals discussed this week: Rio Tinto (RIO AU)'s tilt for Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU), and the Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)/Haitong Securities  (H) (6837 HK) merger.
Key updates took place on: Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) and Korea Zinc (010130 KS).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Rio/Arcadium, Seven & I, Pacific Smiles, China TCM, Korea Zinc

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 4th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD27.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Ampol, Domino'S Pizza Enterprises, BHP, Fortescue.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 4th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD27.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Ampol, Domino'S Pizza Enterprises, BHP, Fortescue.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 4th): Ampol, Domino'S Pizza Enterprises, BHP, Fortescue

Australia

Virgin Money UK PLC provides financial services. The Company offers online mobile solutions such as banking and other related activities. Virgin Money UK serves customers in the United Kingdom.

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Virgin Money UK Plc (VUK AU)

Nationwide/Virgin Money (VUK AU): At The Pointy End Of The Offer

Done deal. Trading tight at a 1.8%, 1.9% gross spread for the UK, Aussie legs, assuming mid-Nov completion. If in, stay in. Or get involved on...

David Blennerhassett

AT1 Bonds; Life After Credit Suisse

The CS AT1 write-off due to UBS's acquisition is an unconventional action on bondholders versus shareholders, implying a rising banks' cost of...

Victor Galliano

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 18th): Fortescue, Australia And New Zealand Banking, Evolution Mining

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, Australia And New Zealand Banking,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Rio/Arcadium, Seven & I, Pacific Smiles, China TCM, Korea Zinc

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 4th): Ampol, Domino'S Pizza Enterprises, BHP, Fortescue

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Ampol, Domino'S Pizza Enterprises, BHP, Fortescue.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

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