China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There have been various rumors regarding China's consumption in general and e-commerce trend in particular. Two of the recent ones are <strong>weak 618 sales</strong> and <strong>keep-it-refunds</strong>;</li>
<li>While we are in general pessimistic on Chinese consumption in the medium term, government subsidies and consumption vouchers are helping to keep consumption, especially e-commerce, going in healthy pace;</li>
<li>Our TOP PICKS are Alibaba and PDD, both trading at attractive valuations of 7.4x and 9.5x CY24 P/E. Solid June consumption, positive 3Q outlook, and EPS expansion are upcoming catalysts.</li>
</ul>


There have been various rumors regarding China's consumption in general and e-commerce trend in particular. Two of the recent ones are weak 618 sales and keep-it-refunds;
While we are in general pessimistic on Chinese consumption in the medium term, government subsidies and consumption vouchers are helping to keep consumption, especially e-commerce, going in healthy pace;
Our TOP PICKS are Alibaba and PDD, both trading at attractive valuations of 7.4x and 9.5x CY24 P/E. Solid June consumption, positive 3Q outlook, and EPS expansion are upcoming catalysts.


China's E-Commerce Is Not as Bad as the Stock Prices Suggest

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>PDD US/BABA US/JD US/3690 HK/VIPS US: NBS publishes data social retail consumption data for May 2024 (+/+/+/+/-)</li>
<li>700 HK: &lt;Need for Speed Mobile&gt; to officially launch on July 11, with pre-registration surpassed 26 mn (+)</li>
<li>CPNG/BABA/TEMU/139480.KR:Coupang told to stop favoring its own products in its algorithm (-/+/+)</li>
</ul>


PDD US/BABA US/JD US/3690 HK/VIPS US: NBS publishes data social retail consumption data for May 2024 (+/+/+/+/-)
700 HK: &lt;Need for Speed Mobile&gt; to officially launch on July 11, with pre-registration surpassed 26 mn (+)
CPNG/BABA/TEMU/139480.KR:Coupang told to stop favoring its own products in its algorithm (-/+/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:PDD/BABA /JD/3690HK/VIPS/700HK/CPNG/TEMU/13948 KR/TCOM/ATAT/BILI

<ul>
<li>700 HK:&lt;DnF Mobile&gt; officially launched today, with good first-day performance.（+）</li>
<li>JD US/AAPL US/1810 HK: iPhone prices cut by 20%+ for 6.18 shopping festival (+/-/-)</li>
<li>JD US/2618 HK/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US: JD begins cracking down on “big enterprise disease” through layoffs and stricter corporate culture (+/+/-/-/-)</li>
</ul>


700 HK:&lt;DnF Mobile&gt; officially launched today, with good first-day performance.（+）
JD US/AAPL US/1810 HK: iPhone prices cut by 20%+ for 6.18 shopping festival (+/-/-)
JD US/2618 HK/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US: JD begins cracking down on “big enterprise disease” through layoffs and stricter corporate culture (+/+/-/-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:700 HK/JD US/AAPL US/1810 HK/2618 HK/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US/3690 HK

<ul>
<li>NTES US/700 HK: The NPPA has released the results for May's domestic game code license approvals.(+)</li>
<li>PDD US /BABA US /JD US /3690 HK/VIPS US : NBS publishes data social retail consumption data for April 2024 (+/+/+/+/-)</li>
<li>700 HK/BIDU US: Tencent announced the upcoming release of its consumer LLM application "Tencent Yuanbao."（/////）</li>
</ul>


NTES US/700 HK: The NPPA has released the results for May's domestic game code license approvals.(+)
PDD US /BABA US /JD US /3690 HK/VIPS US : NBS publishes data social retail consumption data for April 2024 (+/+/+/+/-)
700 HK/BIDU US: Tencent announced the upcoming release of its consumer LLM application "Tencent Yuanbao."（/////）


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES US/700 HK/PDD US /BABA US /JD US /3690 HK/VIPS US/BIDU US

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-baicha-baidao-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40029:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK)</a> (SBBI) raised around US$330m in its HK IPO.</li>
<li>SBBI sells new-style tea drinks through its ChaPanda stores. According to F&amp;S, SBBI ranked third in China’s new-style tea shop market with a market share of 6.8% in FY23.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s performance and valuations in our past note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) (SBBI) raised around US$330m in its HK IPO.
SBBI sells new-style tea drinks through its ChaPanda stores. According to F&amp;S, SBBI ranked third in China’s new-style tea shop market with a market share of 6.8% in FY23.
We have looked at the company’s performance and valuations in our past note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Sichuan Baicha Baidao IPO Trading - Tepid Demand, While Peers Have Corrected

China

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. retails branded products at discount over the Internet. The Company retails through flash sales, in which limited quantities of an item are sold at deep discount for a specified period of time.

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Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)

China's E-Commerce Is Not as Bad as the Stock Prices Suggest

Rumors of weak 618 sales and high keep-it-refunds ratios were unfounded. While long term consumption in China does have challenges, near term...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:PDD/BABA /JD/3690HK/VIPS/700HK/CPNG/TEMU/13948 KR/TCOM/ATAT/BILI

NBS releases social retail consumption data for May 2024, Need for Speed Mobile to launch on July 11 with 26 mn pre-registrations, Coupang told to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:700 HK/JD US/AAPL US/1810 HK/2618 HK/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US/3690 HK

New mobile game DnF Mobile has successful launch in HK, iPhone prices slashed for shopping festival, JD cracks down on "big enterprise disease"...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES US/700 HK/PDD US /BABA US /JD US /3690 HK/VIPS US/BIDU US

NPPA releases May's game code license approvals, NBS data on social retail consumption in April 2024, Tencent to launch consumer LLM app "Tencent...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Sichuan Baicha Baidao IPO Trading - Tepid Demand, While Peers Have Corrected

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) (SBBI) raised around US$330m in its HK IPO. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China's E-Commerce Is Not as Bad as the Stock Prices Suggest

​Rumors of weak 618 sales and high keep-it-refunds ratios were unfounded. While long term consumption in China does have challenges, near term...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:PDD/BABA /JD/3690HK/VIPS/700HK/CPNG/TEMU/13948 KR/TCOM/ATAT/BILI

​NBS releases social retail consumption data for May 2024, Need for Speed Mobile to launch on July 11 with 26 mn pre-registrations, Coupang told to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:700 HK/JD US/AAPL US/1810 HK/2618 HK/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US/3690 HK

​New mobile game DnF Mobile has successful launch in HK, iPhone prices slashed for shopping festival, JD cracks down on "big enterprise disease"...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES US/700 HK/PDD US /BABA US /JD US /3690 HK/VIPS US/BIDU US

​NPPA releases May's game code license approvals, NBS data on social retail consumption in April 2024, Tencent to launch consumer LLM app "Tencent...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Sichuan Baicha Baidao IPO Trading - Tepid Demand, While Peers Have Corrected

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) (SBBI) raised around US$330m in its HK IPO. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Rumors of weak 618 sales and high keep-it-refunds ratios were unfounded. While long term consumption in China does have challenges, near term...

NBS releases social retail consumption data for May 2024, Need for Speed Mobile to launch on July 11 with 26 mn pre-registrations, Coupang told to...

New mobile game DnF Mobile has successful launch in HK, iPhone prices slashed for shopping festival, JD cracks down on "big enterprise disease"...

NPPA releases May's game code license approvals, NBS data on social retail consumption in April 2024, Tencent to launch consumer LLM app "Tencent...