Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Highlighted themes and actionable charts: Reiterating BRIC overweight. This country grouping continues to outperform broad EM, and we believe BRIC will be a primary source of outperformance relative to the MSCI EM Index moving forward.  Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations within EM.

Highlighted themes and actionable charts: Reiterating BRIC overweight. This country grouping continues to outperform broad EM, and we believe BRIC will be a primary source of outperformance relative to the MSCI EM Index moving forward.  Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations within EM.

EM Equity Strategy: Indonesia Perking Up; Overweight BRIC, Tech, and Health Care

MD, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Gu Jun, CFA

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

● BABA reported top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income (3.4)%, (18)% and (12%) below our estimates. Main reason for the fall seems to be the fall in mobile take rate;● Intelligent hardware and Internet Finance can be next growth driver;● We rate the stock Buy, with a TP of US$185.Views from an optimist and a pessimistBoth optimists and pessimists can find ample evidence to support their views this quarter. 1P revenue (Yintai, HEMA and Tmall Supermarket) accounted for 6.1% of…

● BABA reported top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income (3.4)%, (18)% and (12%) below our estimates. Main reason for the fall seems to be the fall in mobile take rate;● Intelligent hardware and Internet Finance can be next growth driver;● We rate the stock Buy, with a TP of US$185.Views from an optimist and a pessimistBoth optimists and pessimists can find ample evidence to support their views this quarter. 1P revenue (Yintai, HEMA and Tmall Supermarket) accounted for 6.1% of…

Alibaba Group Holdings Limited (NYSE: BABA) C4Q17: Time to Look for the Next Driver

Equity Capital Markets

JD.com Inc (ADR) / Equity Capital Markets

Summary:We think JD Logistics' (JDL) valuation at US$10bn is reasonable. The reason is that integrated logistics have the advantage in China logistics market. After JD Logistics' spin-off, JD will focus on 3P which is more profitable, and JDL will start with contract logistics (supply chain management), then move to express delivery. We also believe e-commerce and logistics will face the greatest uncertainty in recent years: (1) the initial impact from JDL to the logistic space will be limited,…

Summary:We think JD Logistics' (JDL) valuation at US$10bn is reasonable. The reason is that integrated logistics have the advantage in China logistics market. After JD Logistics' spin-off, JD will focus on 3P which is more profitable, and JDL will start with contract logistics (supply chain management), then move to express delivery. We also believe e-commerce and logistics will face the greatest uncertainty in recent years: (1) the initial impact from JDL to the logistic space will be limited,…

What Change Will JD Logistics (JDL) Bring to the E-Commerce and Logistics Markets?

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Internet retailing continues to record robust current value growth of 30% in 2017, to reach CNY3.1 trillion, although this is a deceleration after many years of dramatic growth</li><li>In GBO terms, the top two players, Alibaba Group Holding and JD.com, jointly retain the dominant position in 2017</li><li>Internet retailing is expected to maintain healthy growth over the forecast period, along with improved penetration into rural areas</li></ul>

Internet retailing continues to record robust current value growth of 30% in 2017, to reach CNY3.1 trillion, although this is a deceleration after many years of dramatic growthIn GBO terms, the top two players, Alibaba Group Holding and JD.com, jointly retain the dominant position in 2017Internet retailing is expected to maintain healthy growth over the forecast period, along with improved penetration into rural areas

Sector Capsule: Internet Retailing in China

First week into 2018, two developments sent property stocks and related Internet stocks flying:<ol type="1" start="1">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">During the last week of 2017 and first week of 2018, three New 1st Tier Cities (Qingdao, Tianjin and Nanjing), two 2nd Tier Cities (Lanzhou and Hefei)  and several 3rd cities announced relaxation policies “disguised” as “attracting talents”. Market interpreted these cities unable to balance their fiscal budget and must resort to selling land to raise government incomes;</li>
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Inner Mongolia Province (January…</li>
</ol>

First week into 2018, two developments sent property stocks and related Internet stocks flying:
During the last week of 2017 and first week of 2018, three New 1st Tier Cities (Qingdao, Tianjin and Nanjing), two 2nd Tier Cities (Lanzhou and Hefei)  and several 3rd cities announced relaxation policies “disguised” as “attracting talents”. Market interpreted these cities unable to balance their fiscal budget and must resort to selling land to raise government incomes;

Inner Mongolia Province (January…


Local and Central Governments' Tug over Real Estate Reform Will Shape Property and Retail Markets

China

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. retails branded products at discount over the Internet. The Company retails through flash sales, in which limited quantities of an item are sold at deep discount for a specified period of time.

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Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)

EM Equity Strategy: Indonesia Perking Up; Overweight BRIC, Tech, and Health Care

Highlighted themes and actionable charts: Reiterating BRIC overweight. This country grouping continues to outperform broad EM, and we believe BRIC...

Vermilion Research

Alibaba Group Holdings Limited (NYSE: BABA) C4Q17: Time to Look for the Next Driver

● BABA reported top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income (3.4)%, (18)% and (12%) below our estimates. Main reason for the fall seems...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

What Change Will JD Logistics (JDL) Bring to the E-Commerce and Logistics Markets?

Summary:We think JD Logistics' (JDL) valuation at US$10bn is reasonable. The reason is that integrated logistics have the advantage in China...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Sector Capsule: Internet Retailing in China

Internet retailing continues to record robust current value growth of 30% in 2017, to reach CNY3.1 trillion, although this is a deceleration after...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Local and Central Governments' Tug over Real Estate Reform Will Shape Property and Retail Markets

First week into 2018, two developments sent property stocks and related Internet stocks flying: During the last week of 2017 and first week of...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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