Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hagl-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6632:1" rel="noopener">Hagl Jsc (HAG VN)</a> is an inclusion while An Phat Holdings (APH VN) and CEO Group (CEO VN) are deletes from the MVIS Vietnam Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>There are a lot of float and capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of 12% and a one-way trade of US$45m.</li>
<li>There are a lot of stocks that have over 1 day of ADV to trade and there could be opportunities to enter/exit positions on a move in the stocks.</li>
</ul>



Hagl Jsc (HAG VN) is an inclusion while An Phat Holdings (APH VN) and CEO Group (CEO VN) are deletes from the MVIS Vietnam Index at the September rebalance.
There are a lot of float and capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of 12% and a one-way trade of US$45m.
There are a lot of stocks that have over 1 day of ADV to trade and there could be opportunities to enter/exit positions on a move in the stocks.


MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes

<ul>
<li>There are 2 additions and 1 deletion for the MVIS Vietnam Index at the upcoming rebalance at the close on 17 June. Plus capping and float changes.</li>
<li>The adds are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saigon-hanoi-commercial" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17575:1" rel="noopener">Saigon - Hanoi Commercial (SHB VN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viet-nam-construction-impo" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17309:1" rel="noopener">Viet Nam Construction &amp; Impo (VCG VN)</a>, while Tien Phong Securities (ORS VN) is the deletion.</li>
<li>The largest passive outflows are on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/feng-tay-enterprise-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18329:1" rel="noopener">Feng Tay Enterprise (9910 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eclat-textile-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13209:1" rel="noopener">Eclat Textile Company (1476 TT)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There are 2 additions and 1 deletion for the MVIS Vietnam Index at the upcoming rebalance at the close on 17 June. Plus capping and float changes.
The adds are Saigon - Hanoi Commercial (SHB VN) and Viet Nam Construction &amp; Impo (VCG VN), while Tien Phong Securities (ORS VN) is the deletion.
The largest passive outflows are on Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), Feng Tay Enterprise (9910 TT) and Eclat Textile Company (1476 TT). 


MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: Two Adds, One Delete, Capping & Float Changes

<ul>
<li>There are 8 additions to the MVIS Vietnam Index at the upcoming rebalance at the close on 18 March. Moderate impact on most of the adds.</li>
<li>There are some stocks that have large float changes; watch <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saigon-thuong-tin-commercial" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:650:1" rel="noopener">Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial (STB VN)</a>. Over 1 day of ADV to sell on some stocks due to capping changes.</li>
<li>At the December rebalance, all 5 adds jumped the day post announcement and then stayed in a range till implementation of the changes.</li>
</ul>


There are 8 additions to the MVIS Vietnam Index at the upcoming rebalance at the close on 18 March. Moderate impact on most of the adds.
There are some stocks that have large float changes; watch Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial (STB VN). Over 1 day of ADV to sell on some stocks due to capping changes.
At the December rebalance, all 5 adds jumped the day post announcement and then stayed in a range till implementation of the changes.


MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: Eight Additions & Some Big Float Changes

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Technical Analysis

Short term pessimism in Vietnam also seems to have passed an extreme. The market is beginning to break higher again while outperforming the S&amp;P 500 for some timeA rally through the trend highs of 1,424 on the Ho Chi Minh Index seems likely. Such a development would be an important break

Short term pessimism in Vietnam also seems to have passed an extreme. The market is beginning to break higher again while outperforming the S&amp;P 500 for some timeA rally through the trend highs of 1,424 on the Ho Chi Minh Index seems likely. Such a development would be an important break

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

While the US was the epicentre of the world's first Covid wave (peaking in January 2021), and India the second (peaking in early-May 2021), the epicentre of the current third global Covid wave is ASEAN. While Indonesia was initially the worst hit, this wave has spread to Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam (the latter two among the most successful in combatting Covid in 2020), with some scares in Singapore and the Philippines as well. ASEAN's real GDP is estimated to have grown over 10% YoY in 2Q 2021 (helped by a very depressed base from 2Q 2020) but the renewed Covid surge is set to weaken the economic recovery in 2H 2021. In July 2021, Indonesia has had more new Covid cases than any other nation globally. But the worst of Indonesia's Covid wave was reached on 18 July 2021 (at a 7-day moving average of 50,039 new daily infections), and these have since receded by nearly a fifth. The biggest hit will occur in 3Q 2021 growth, but Indonesia's real GDP should exceed 6% YoY in 4Q 2021, bringing full-year growth to about 5%. The worst-hit ASEAN economy (and polity) is Malaysia, where there have been 3 successive Covid waves in 2021, the last of which has not yet reached its peak. Consequently, the greatest economic and political uncertainty in 2H 2021 will be in Malaysia, which has the highest per capita Covid case load in South or South-east Asia (at 31,334 cases per million population). We expect real GDP to grow no more than 3% YoY in 2H 2021 despite a low base. Thailand and Vietnam, both extremely successful in containing Covid in 2020 (although Thailand's tourism-dependent economy nonetheless suffered a severe hit from the drying-up of tourist arrivals) are now seeing their first wave of Covid infections, in July 2021. The peak of the current Covid wave is not yet detectable in either country. Vietnam's Covid wave is concentrated in the south (Ho Chi Minh City and surrounding provinces), but Thailand's is concentrated around the main economic centre, Bangkok, and its surrounding provinces. However, the base effect is more helpful in Thialand than Vietnam (the latter having continued to grow in all four quarters of 2020), so we expect Vietnam's real GDP to grow 5% YoY and Thailand's 5-6% YoY in 2H 2021. Despite a major alarm being raised in Singapore as well, the latest Covid wave is very mild in the island-republic, and real GDP in Singapore is consequently likely to grow 7.2% in 2021.

While the US was the epicentre of the world's first Covid wave (peaking in January 2021), and India the second (peaking in early-May 2021), the epicentre of the current third global Covid wave is ASEAN. While Indonesia was initially the worst hit, this wave has spread to Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam (the latter two among the most successful in combatting Covid in 2020), with some scares in Singapore and the Philippines as well. ASEAN's real GDP is estimated to have grown over 10% YoY in 2Q 2021 (helped by a very depressed base from 2Q 2020) but the renewed Covid surge is set to weaken the economic recovery in 2H 2021. In July 2021, Indonesia has had more new Covid cases than any other nation globally. But the worst of Indonesia's Covid wave was reached on 18 July 2021 (at a 7-day moving average of 50,039 new daily infections), and these have since receded by nearly a fifth. The biggest hit will occur in 3Q 2021 growth, but Indonesia's real GDP should exceed 6% YoY in 4Q 2021, bringing full-year growth to about 5%. The worst-hit ASEAN economy (and polity) is Malaysia, where there have been 3 successive Covid waves in 2021, the last of which has not yet reached its peak. Consequently, the greatest economic and political uncertainty in 2H 2021 will be in Malaysia, which has the highest per capita Covid case load in South or South-east Asia (at 31,334 cases per million population). We expect real GDP to grow no more than 3% YoY in 2H 2021 despite a low base. Thailand and Vietnam, both extremely successful in containing Covid in 2020 (although Thailand's tourism-dependent economy nonetheless suffered a severe hit from the drying-up of tourist arrivals) are now seeing their first wave of Covid infections, in July 2021. The peak of the current Covid wave is not yet detectable in either country. Vietnam's Covid wave is concentrated in the south (Ho Chi Minh City and surrounding provinces), but Thailand's is concentrated around the main economic centre, Bangkok, and its surrounding provinces. However, the base effect is more helpful in Thialand than Vietnam (the latter having continued to grow in all four quarters of 2020), so we expect Vietnam's real GDP to grow 5% YoY and Thailand's 5-6% YoY in 2H 2021. Despite a major alarm being raised in Singapore as well, the latest Covid wave is very mild in the island-republic, and real GDP in Singapore is consequently likely to grow 7.2% in 2021.  

ASEAN as Epicentre of the Covid Crisis: Malaysia Worst Off, Indonesia Improving

Vietnam

The Vietnam Stock Index or VN-Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all the companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange. The index was created with a base index value of 100 as of July 28, 2000. Prior to March 1, 2002, the market only traded on alternate days.

Vietnam VNIndex (VNINDEX INDEX)

MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes

There is 1 addition and 2 deletions for the MVIS Vietnam Index. There are a lot of float and capping changes that will result in one-way turnover...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: Two Adds, One Delete, Capping & Float Changes

There are 2 adds, 1 delete, float and capping changes for the MVIS Vietnam Index to be implemented at the close on 17 June. One-way turnover is...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: Eight Additions & Some Big Float Changes

There are 8 additions and quite a few float changes to the MVIS Vietnam Index at the March rebalance. The one-way trade is US$80m and over a day of...

Brian Freitas

Vietnam - New Highs Ahead?

The worst seems to be in the price for Vietnam where the stock market is looking increasingly bullish. Are new highs on the horizon?

Shyam Devani

ASEAN as Epicentre of the Covid Crisis: Malaysia Worst Off, Indonesia Improving

After 10%+YoY GDP growth in 2Q21, ASEAN became the epicentre of the 3rd global Covid wave. Malaysia is worst-hit, Indonesia's worst is over,...

Prasenjit K. Basu