European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keysight-technologies-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1679:1" rel="noopener">Keysight Technologies In (KEYS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spirent-communications-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22160:1" rel="noopener">Spirent Communications (SPT LN)</a> have agreed a recommended 201.5p/share cash acquisition via Scheme of Arrangement, an increase of 26.5p (15.1%) relative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viavi-solutions-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15310:1" rel="noopener">Viavi Solutions (VIAV US)</a>'s Offer.</li>
<li>Spirent, with some scarcity value, should be able to improve its cyclicality as part of Keysight. A counteroffer from Viavi looks unlikely unless Silver Lake significantly increases its stake.</li>
<li>Gross spread is 1.99%. Using Keysight's forecast s about completion, at best, estimated annual return would be 3.51% while at worst, 1.88%. This suggests there may be better opportunities elsewhere.</li>
</ul>



Keysight Technologies In (KEYS US) and Spirent Communications (SPT LN) have agreed a recommended 201.5p/share cash acquisition via Scheme of Arrangement, an increase of 26.5p (15.1%) relative to Viavi Solutions (VIAV US)'s Offer.
Spirent, with some scarcity value, should be able to improve its cyclicality as part of Keysight. A counteroffer from Viavi looks unlikely unless Silver Lake significantly increases its stake.
Gross spread is 1.99%. Using Keysight's forecast s about completion, at best, estimated annual return would be 3.51% while at worst, 1.88%. This suggests there may be better opportunities elsewhere.


Keysight/Spirent: Recommended Competing Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> places out 1% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.</li>
<li>The spreads for  both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) </a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) places out 1% of Oriental Land (4661 JP), but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.

New World Development (17 HK) popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.
The spreads for  both Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)  and Azure Minerals (AZS AU) are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viavi-solutions-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15310:1" rel="noopener">Viavi Solutions (VIAV US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spirent-communications-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22160:1" rel="noopener">Spirent Communications (SPT LN)</a> have agreed a cash acquisition via Scheme at 175p (61% premium, 2.5x EV/Fwd Revenue) with just 0.23% irrevocable undertakings. </li>
<li>The opportunity seems good enough so that Viavi (BB) will stretch even more its balance sheet, although Silver Lake is providing 1/3rd of the funds needed.</li>
<li>Gross spread is +0.11%. I believe that shareholders are holding for a sweetening; quite possibly this is a target for activists too. Risk/return seems attractive. Long.</li>
</ul>



Viavi Solutions (VIAV US) and Spirent Communications (SPT LN) have agreed a cash acquisition via Scheme at 175p (61% premium, 2.5x EV/Fwd Revenue) with just 0.23% irrevocable undertakings. 
The opportunity seems good enough so that Viavi (BB) will stretch even more its balance sheet, although Silver Lake is providing 1/3rd of the funds needed.
Gross spread is +0.11%. I believe that shareholders are holding for a sweetening; quite possibly this is a target for activists too. Risk/return seems attractive. Long.


Viavi/Spirent: Management Throw in the Towel but Shareholders Likely to Hold

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Viavi encountered challenges in the last quarter, including declining revenue and weaker spending in certain segments.</li><li>NSE revenues experienced a significant year-over-year decline, while OSP revenue also decreased.</li><li>The company anticipates a stable performance in the next quarter, with revenue expectations and operating profit margin in line with projections.</li></ul>

Viavi encountered challenges in the last quarter, including declining revenue and weaker spending in certain segments.NSE revenues experienced a significant year-over-year decline, while OSP revenue also decreased.The company anticipates a stable performance in the next quarter, with revenue expectations and operating profit margin in line with projections.

Viavi Solutions Inc.: Launch of CX100 ComXpert & Other Drivers

<ul><li>Viavi’s result for the second quarter of 2023 performed better than Wall Street expectations as the company delivered an all-around beat, driven by NSE performance aided by stabilization in service provider demand and spending.</li><li>The company’s OSP business increased year over year and performed within the forecast.</li><li>NSE decreased sequentially and year over year due to weaker fiber and wireless lab product demand.</li></ul>

Viavi’s result for the second quarter of 2023 performed better than Wall Street expectations as the company delivered an all-around beat, driven by NSE performance aided by stabilization in service provider demand and spending.The company’s OSP business increased year over year and performed within the forecast.NSE decreased sequentially and year over year due to weaker fiber and wireless lab product demand.

United States

Viavi Solutions Inc. provides network and service enabling solutions and optical products. The Company offers installation, commissioning, scripting, custom analytics, integration, business intelligence consulting, operational assistance, field and lab testing, technical training, maintenance, and support services. Viavi Solutions serves customers worldwide.

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Viavi Solutions (VIAV US)

Keysight/Spirent: Recommended Competing Offer

Keysight to acquire Spirent for 201.5p/share. Viavi unlikely to counteroffer unless Silver Lake increases stake. Gross spread is 1.99%, estimated...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Viavi/Spirent: Management Throw in the Towel but Shareholders Likely to Hold

Viavi Solutions and Spirent Communications agree to cash acquisition at 175p with just 0.23% irrevocable undertakings, with Silver Lake's help....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Viavi Solutions Inc.: Launch of CX100 ComXpert & Other Drivers

Viavi encountered challenges in the last quarter, including declining revenue and weaker spending in certain segments. NSE revenues experienced a...

Baptista Research

Viavi Solutions: Major Drivers

Viavi’s result for the second quarter of 2023 performed better than Wall Street expectations as the company delivered an all-around beat, driven...

Baptista Research

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Keysight/Spirent: Recommended Competing Offer

​Keysight to acquire Spirent for 201.5p/share. Viavi unlikely to counteroffer unless Silver Lake increases stake. Gross spread is 1.99%, estimated...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Viavi/Spirent: Management Throw in the Towel but Shareholders Likely to Hold

​Viavi Solutions and Spirent Communications agree to cash acquisition at 175p with just 0.23% irrevocable undertakings, with Silver Lake's help....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Viavi Solutions Inc.: Launch of CX100 ComXpert & Other Drivers

Viavi encountered challenges in the last quarter, including declining revenue and weaker spending in certain segments. NSE revenues experienced a...

Baptista Research

Viavi Solutions: Major Drivers

Viavi’s result for the second quarter of 2023 performed better than Wall Street expectations as the company delivered an all-around beat, driven...

Baptista Research

Keysight to acquire Spirent for 201.5p/share. Viavi unlikely to counteroffer unless Silver Lake increases stake. Gross spread is 1.99%, estimated...

Viavi Solutions and Spirent Communications agree to cash acquisition at 175p with just 0.23% irrevocable undertakings, with Silver Lake's help....