Amareos

Ryan Shea

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Summary</h2>131 days into the Trump presidency (who’s counting?) and US equities are still rising but US Treasury yields have turned down after their earlier surge. This divergence has investors scratching their heads as to the implications are for the US economy and, by extension, the future direction of US (and global) asset markets. Given both US equities and government bonds are fundamentally overvalued there are plenty of bears around keen to talk their book, but which side is right? Or are they…

Summary131 days into the Trump presidency (who’s counting?) and US equities are still rising but US Treasury yields have turned down after their earlier surge. This divergence has investors scratching their heads as to the implications are for the US economy and, by extension, the future direction of US (and global) asset markets. Given both US equities and government bonds are fundamentally overvalued there are plenty of bears around keen to talk their book, but which side is right? Or are they…

The Market Sentimentalist - Who's Eating Porridge?

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

-From an economic standpoint, the longer Trump's domestic agenda is stalled the better. The agenda involves massive increases in defense spending, huge tax cuts skewed towards the wealthy and corporates (possibly with a border tax adjustment that brings on protectionist retaliation globally), all made possible by implausible growth projections (about a percentage point higher annually than CBO projections for ten years!). For now, the Trump agenda is stalled, because the Russia investigation is…

-From an economic standpoint, the longer Trump's domestic agenda is stalled the better. The agenda involves massive increases in defense spending, huge tax cuts skewed towards the wealthy and corporates (possibly with a border tax adjustment that brings on protectionist retaliation globally), all made possible by implausible growth projections (about a percentage point higher annually than CBO projections for ten years!). For now, the Trump agenda is stalled, because the Russia investigation is…

After His Catastrophic Foreign Policy Debut, Trump's Administration Faces Paralysis at Home

<h2>Summary</h2>Global equity markets are expensive, implied volatility is low and falling, and central banks are either turning off, or threatening to turn off, the liquidity tap. This combination has certainly attracted the attention of the bears, with many speculating that the asset price bubble they perceived as having been inflated by years of accommodative policy is about to burst. In other words, we are on the cusp of a major market correction – an Ursa Major (think about it!) event. We disagree.…

SummaryGlobal equity markets are expensive, implied volatility is low and falling, and central banks are either turning off, or threatening to turn off, the liquidity tap. This combination has certainly attracted the attention of the bears, with many speculating that the asset price bubble they perceived as having been inflated by years of accommodative policy is about to burst. In other words, we are on the cusp of a major market correction – an Ursa Major (think about it!) event. We disagree.…

The Market Sentimentalist - Are The Stars Aligned?

Macroeconomics

-Reality continues to catch up with the Trump Economy, with real GDP growth slumping to just 0.7% QoQ in 1Q 2017, dragged down by sluggish private consumer spending (+0.3%) and slumping government spending (-1.7%). What little growth there was owed primarily to a surge in fixed investment spending by businesses (+9.4%) and on residential construction (+13.7%). Business investment grew at its fastest pace in over 3 years on the hope of a large Trump (or Congressional GOP) tax cut. The brief but…

-Reality continues to catch up with the Trump Economy, with real GDP growth slumping to just 0.7% QoQ in 1Q 2017, dragged down by sluggish private consumer spending (+0.3%) and slumping government spending (-1.7%). What little growth there was owed primarily to a surge in fixed investment spending by businesses (+9.4%) and on residential construction (+13.7%). Business investment grew at its fastest pace in over 3 years on the hope of a large Trump (or Congressional GOP) tax cut. The brief but…

US Loss of Momentum a Warning Sign for Asian Exports in 4Q 2017 and Beyond

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

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David Riedel was interviewed on the Nightly Business Report about the Trump/Xi Florida summit.The focus of the interview was what the main topics and issues would be at the summit and the likely outcome of the first meeting between the leaders of the number one and two economies in the world.The issue of how Trump's campaign rhetoric will or won't translate into policy was discussed.North Korea was an important part of the discussion (this was before the missile launch Monday night).The…

David Riedel was interviewed on the Nightly Business Report about the Trump/Xi Florida summit.The focus of the interview was what the main topics and issues would be at the summit and the likely outcome of the first meeting between the leaders of the number one and two economies in the world.The issue of how Trump's campaign rhetoric will or won't translate into policy was discussed.North Korea was an important part of the discussion (this was before the missile launch Monday night).The…

Riedel Interview on Trump/Xi Florida Summit - North Korea, Trade, Currency and More

United States

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the FTSE Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds large and mid-cap stocks in emerging markets around the world. Brazil, Russia, India, Taiwan, China, and South Africa are among the markets included. The ETF weights these holdings based on market capitalization.

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO US)

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO US)

The Market Sentimentalist - Who's Eating Porridge?

Summary131 days into the Trump presidency (who’s counting?) and US equities are still rising but US Treasury yields have turned down after their...

Amareos

After His Catastrophic Foreign Policy Debut, Trump's Administration Faces Paralysis at Home

-From an economic standpoint, the longer Trump's domestic agenda is stalled the better. The agenda involves massive increases in defense spending,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The Market Sentimentalist - Are The Stars Aligned?

SummaryGlobal equity markets are expensive, implied volatility is low and falling, and central banks are either turning off, or threatening to turn...

Amareos

US Loss of Momentum a Warning Sign for Asian Exports in 4Q 2017 and Beyond

-Reality continues to catch up with the Trump Economy, with real GDP growth slumping to just 0.7% QoQ in 1Q 2017, dragged down by sluggish private...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Riedel Interview on Trump/Xi Florida Summit - North Korea, Trade, Currency and More

David Riedel was interviewed on the Nightly Business Report about the Trump/Xi Florida summit.The focus of the interview was what the main topics...

David Riedel