Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Index Rebalance

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we spotlight building materials corporate actions, gold miners’ benchmark shifts, and semaglutide’s prospects in India and Japan</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message on the themes you think should be highlighted next</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we spotlight building materials corporate actions, gold miners’ benchmark shifts, and semaglutide’s prospects in India and Japan
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message on the themes you think should be highlighted next


Curator's Cut: Building Materials Moves, Benchmarking Gold Miners & Semaglutide in India and Japan

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>What are major global bond markets telling us about the world?</li>
<li>We look at potential beneficiaries  of the next wave of inflation </li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
What are major global bond markets telling us about the world?
We look at potential beneficiaries  of the next wave of inflation 


Overview #27 – The Big Beautiful Tragi-Comedy Continues

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> keeps rising steadily, while the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> rebalances became effective on December 19th, after the Close.</li>
<li>According to our model <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> has plenty of room to rise higher, beyond 4.4k, on this leg, but after that point it could make a small pullback.</li>
<li>The commodity is quite overbought, but based on the behavior witnessed in the past when the current WEEKLY trend pattern was encountered, <strong>it could rise to 4.6k in 6-8 weeks</strong>.</li>
</ul>



Gold (GOLD COMDTY) keeps rising steadily, while the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) rebalances became effective on December 19th, after the Close.
According to our model Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has plenty of room to rise higher, beyond 4.4k, on this leg, but after that point it could make a small pullback.
The commodity is quite overbought, but based on the behavior witnessed in the past when the current WEEKLY trend pattern was encountered, it could rise to 4.6k in 6-8 weeks.


Tactical View: Gold Eyes 4,600 As GDX ETF Rebalances

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>February typically has higher than normal absolute median price change of 8.67% vs 1M straddle cost of ~7.59%</li>
<li>February median historic vol is 34.44 which compares favorably to current implied vol of 31.</li>
<li>Distribution of returns when GDX has rallied this much against GLD indicative of 8.60% absolute median return.</li>
</ul>


February typically has higher than normal absolute median price change of 8.67% vs 1M straddle cost of ~7.59%
February median historic vol is 34.44 which compares favorably to current implied vol of 31.
Distribution of returns when GDX has rallied this much against GLD indicative of 8.60% absolute median return.


Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>We highlight a  commodity sector with  a strong risk-reward ratio</li>
<li>Precious metals have likely just completed Wave B of their correction</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
We highlight a  commodity sector with  a strong risk-reward ratio
Precious metals have likely just completed Wave B of their correction


Overview #41 – Securing Supply, Unlocking Value: Global Themes in Equities and Commodities

United States

VanEck Gold Miners ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. The ETF invests in materials stocks of all cap sizes across the globe. Its largest allocation is in North American companies, principally those domiciled in Canada. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology.

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VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)

Curator's Cut: Building Materials Moves, Benchmarking Gold Miners & Semaglutide in India and Japan

This Curator's Cut profiles moves in building materials companies, gold miners' changing benchmark and semaglutide's prospects in India and Japan...

Pranav Rao

Overview #27 – The Big Beautiful Tragi-Comedy Continues

More positive news for the Uranium Sector. Jefferies upgraded the Australian uranium miners yesterday with $PDN, $BOE and $DLY rallying 15-20% & up...

Rikki Malik

Tactical View: Gold Eyes 4,600 As GDX ETF Rebalances

While the GDX ETF completed its rebalance, Gold continued to rise steadily nearly touching 4.4k. Our model says 'overbought, but could rise to...

Nico Rosti

EQD | GDX – Buy 1Month Straddle

We provide rationale why we expect a > 7.59% move for GDX and higher volatility over the coming month and recommend purchase of a long straddle...

John Ley

Overview #41 – Securing Supply, Unlocking Value: Global Themes in Equities and Commodities

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Lithium, Japan, precious Metals and the Oil and Gas sector

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Curator's Cut: Building Materials Moves, Benchmarking Gold Miners & Semaglutide in India and Japan

​This Curator's Cut profiles moves in building materials companies, gold miners' changing benchmark and semaglutide's prospects in India and Japan...

Pranav Rao

Overview #27 – The Big Beautiful Tragi-Comedy Continues

More positive news for the Uranium Sector. Jefferies upgraded the Australian uranium miners yesterday with $PDN, $BOE and $DLY rallying 15-20% & up...

Rikki Malik

Tactical View: Gold Eyes 4,600 As GDX ETF Rebalances

​While the GDX ETF completed its rebalance, Gold continued to rise steadily nearly touching 4.4k. Our model says 'overbought, but could rise to...

Nico Rosti

EQD | GDX – Buy 1Month Straddle

We provide rationale why we expect a > 7.59% move for GDX and higher volatility over the coming month and recommend purchase of a long straddle...

John Ley

Overview #41 – Securing Supply, Unlocking Value: Global Themes in Equities and Commodities

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Lithium, Japan, precious Metals and the Oil and Gas sector

Rikki Malik

This Curator's Cut profiles moves in building materials companies, gold miners' changing benchmark and semaglutide's prospects in India and Japan...

While the GDX ETF completed its rebalance, Gold continued to rise steadily nearly touching 4.4k. Our model says 'overbought, but could rise to...