Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Iron ore has remained rangebound between 95 and 130 USD/ton for three years, with cost-curve support kicking in on the higher end of the cost curve at around 100 USD/ton. </li>
<li>Coking coal prices are expected to bounce due to the Anglo incident, and we believe the 65-62 spread will benefit, moving out of its mid-teens band. </li>
<li>We like iron condors (set up details in the insight) and high-grade ore producers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore has remained rangebound between 95 and 130 USD/ton for three years, with cost-curve support kicking in on the higher end of the cost curve at around 100 USD/ton. 
Coking coal prices are expected to bounce due to the Anglo incident, and we believe the 65-62 spread will benefit, moving out of its mid-teens band. 
We like iron condors (set up details in the insight) and high-grade ore producers Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), Vale (VALE US).


Iron Ore Tracker July 4th, 2024: Prices Rangebound, Iron Condors Anyone?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP (BHP AU)</a></strong>'s all-scrip <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240426/pdf/062w455d52h3cv.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unsolicited Offer</a> for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21798:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (AAL LN)</a></strong>, zeroes in on AAL's copper assets as demand for the metal increases for use in EVs and renewable power.</li>
<li>The proposal has been labelled highly opportunistic by some shareholders and South African politicians. And that the value of AAL's Chilian/Peruvian copper mines are obscured by its sprawling business interests.</li>
<li>The Offer remains conditional and non-binding. A transaction hinges off AAL spinning off its South African iron ore and platinum businesses. Expect AAL to reject terms, but remain engaged. </li>
</ul>



BHP (BHP AU)'s all-scrip unsolicited Offer for Anglo American (AAL LN), zeroes in on AAL's copper assets as demand for the metal increases for use in EVs and renewable power.
The proposal has been labelled highly opportunistic by some shareholders and South African politicians. And that the value of AAL's Chilian/Peruvian copper mines are obscured by its sprawling business interests.
The Offer remains conditional and non-binding. A transaction hinges off AAL spinning off its South African iron ore and platinum businesses. Expect AAL to reject terms, but remain engaged. 


BHP/Anglo American: A Decarbonising Solution

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Amman Mineral Internasional / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ)</a> raised around US$714m in its Indonesia IPO, after pricing the deal at IDR1,695/share. Its eight-month lockup will expire on 21st Feb 2024.</li>
<li>Amman Mineral International (AMI) carries out exploration, development, mining, and processing. The company operates an open pit copper and gold mine known as the Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ) raised around US$714m in its Indonesia IPO, after pricing the deal at IDR1,695/share. Its eight-month lockup will expire on 21st Feb 2024.
Amman Mineral International (AMI) carries out exploration, development, mining, and processing. The company operates an open pit copper and gold mine known as the Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Amman Mineral International Lockup Expiry - Large Lockup Expiry, Sitting on Sizeable Profits

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>LATAM allocations hit 10-year highs in active Global equity funds.</li>
<li>Notable increases in allocations include Ninety One Global Value (up 7.5%) and Ranmore Global Equity (up 6.7%), with smaller contributions from Lazard, Delaware, and JOHCM</li>
<li>MercadoLibre is the driving force behind the moves higher, and remains the conviction holding in the region.</li>
</ul>


LATAM allocations hit 10-year highs in active Global equity funds.
Notable increases in allocations include Ninety One Global Value (up 7.5%) and Ranmore Global Equity (up 6.7%), with smaller contributions from Lazard, Delaware, and JOHCM
MercadoLibre is the driving force behind the moves higher, and remains the conviction holding in the region.


LATAM Momentum:  Global Funds Raise Exposure

Merdeka Battery Materials / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-battery-materials-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36864:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA IJ)</a> was listed on 18th Apr 2023, when it raised around US$591m in its Indonesian IPO. Its eight-month lockup will expire on 11th Dec 2023.</li>
<li>MBMA owns one of the world’s largest nickel mines in terms of contained nickel at the Konawe Nickel Mine. </li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA IJ) was listed on 18th Apr 2023, when it raised around US$591m in its Indonesian IPO. Its eight-month lockup will expire on 11th Dec 2023.
MBMA owns one of the world’s largest nickel mines in terms of contained nickel at the Konawe Nickel Mine. 
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Merdeka Battery Materials Lockup Expiry - US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry, Some Have Sold Beforehand

Brazil

Vale S.A. produces and sells iron ore, pellets, manganese, alloys, gold, nickel, copper, kaolin, bauxite, alumina, aluminum, and potash. The Company is based in Brazil, where it owns and operates railroads and maritime terminals.

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Vale (VALE3 BZ)

Iron Ore Tracker July 4th, 2024: Prices Rangebound, Iron Condors Anyone?

With the latest 10% bounce in iron ore prices and coking coal prices, we provide actionable ideas to play iron ore in equities/options etc.

Sameer Taneja

BHP/Anglo American: A Decarbonising Solution

When "Final" doesn't necessarily mean final. After BHP increased its (final) offer ratio terms by 24.8% to 0.8860 BHP shares for each Anglo share -...

David Blennerhassett

Amman Mineral International Lockup Expiry - Large Lockup Expiry, Sitting on Sizeable Profits

Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ) raised around US$714m in its Indonesia IPO, after pricing the deal at IDR1,695/share. Its eight-month lockup...

Ethan Aw

LATAM Momentum: Global Funds Raise Exposure

LATAM allocations hit 10-year highs in active Global equity funds. . MercadoLibre the driving force behind the moves higher, and remains the...

Steven Holden

Merdeka Battery Materials Lockup Expiry - US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry, Some Have Sold Beforehand

Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA IJ) was listed on 18th Apr 2023, when it raised around US$591m in its Indonesian IPO. Its eight-month lockup will...

Ethan Aw

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