Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last year with earnings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ushio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6640:1" rel="noopener">Ushio Inc (6925 JP)</a> announced a HUUUGE buyback discussed in  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huuuge-ushio-6925-buyback" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:102028" rel="noopener">HUUUGE Ushio (6925) Buyback</a>. The headline was 17% of shares out. They ended up buying 13.2%. </li>
<li>Last year the stock popped on the news. Then shares went sideways for months. Then they went up on stable (bad) earnings guidance in H2. Today they beat Q3-updated guidance.</li>
<li>But today they announced a "<a href="https://www.ushio.co.jp/documents/ir/library/plan/ushio_plan2024_e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">new growth strategy</a>" to 2030, and guided to a SHARP (-60%) drop in OP and NP to March 2025, and announced a HUUUGE Buyback. Again.</li>
</ul>


Last year with earnings, Ushio Inc (6925 JP) announced a HUUUGE buyback discussed in  HUUUGE Ushio (6925) Buyback. The headline was 17% of shares out. They ended up buying 13.2%. 
Last year the stock popped on the news. Then shares went sideways for months. Then they went up on stable (bad) earnings guidance in H2. Today they beat Q3-updated guidance.
But today they announced a "new growth strategy" to 2030, and guided to a SHARP (-60%) drop in OP and NP to March 2025, and announced a HUUUGE Buyback. Again.


Another HUGE Ushio (6925) Buyback After A HUGE Buyback Last Year

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ushio has tied up with Applied Materials (AMAT) to develop lithography systems for package substrates using AMAT's Digital Lithography Technology.</li>
<li>This should keep the focus on Ushio's more advanced technologies (which also include EUV mask inspection light sources) and its potential to rebound with the semiconductor cycle.</li>
<li>The shares have dropped back 10% since mid-December, providing an entry point. 3Q results are scheduled to be announced on February 9.</li>
</ul>


Ushio has tied up with Applied Materials (AMAT) to develop lithography systems for package substrates using AMAT's Digital Lithography Technology.
This should keep the focus on Ushio's more advanced technologies (which also include EUV mask inspection light sources) and its potential to rebound with the semiconductor cycle.
The shares have dropped back 10% since mid-December, providing an entry point. 3Q results are scheduled to be announced on February 9.


Ushio (6925 JP): Tie-Up with Applied Materials Adds to Long-Term Potential

Japan Petroleum Exploration / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.</li>
<li>The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.</li>
<li>In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.</li>
</ul>


Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.
The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.
In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.


JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>There is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> buyback risk that might cause <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>/JPB unwinds; though probably a H2 risk.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> has consistently traded through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a>'s Offer terms. Someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, and force a bump.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>'s scrip pre-condition has been satisfied. But still the Offeror prevaricates. </li>
</ul>


There is Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) buyback risk that might cause Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/JPB unwinds; though probably a H2 risk.

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) has consistently traded through OCBC (OCBC SP)'s Offer terms. Someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, and force a bump.

L'Occitane (973 HK)'s scrip pre-condition has been satisfied. But still the Offeror prevaricates. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

<ul>
<li>Ushio is making substantial investments in it core light source technologies, sacrificing short term profit for long-term growth potential.</li>
<li>Geared to rising demand for EUV mask and IC package lithography, bio-medical equipment, and solid-state light sources. Digital cinema business rebounding from COVID.</li>
<li>Selling at 21x current EPS guidance, 12x management's FY Mar-26 EPS target and 0.9x book value. Upside potential to book value while waiting for confirmation of forecast recovery.</li>
</ul>


Ushio is making substantial investments in it core light source technologies, sacrificing short term profit for long-term growth potential.
Geared to rising demand for EUV mask and IC package lithography, bio-medical equipment, and solid-state light sources. Digital cinema business rebounding from COVID.
Selling at 21x current EPS guidance, 12x management's FY Mar-26 EPS target and 0.9x book value. Upside potential to book value while waiting for confirmation of forecast recovery.


Ushio (6925 JP): Preparing for the Next Growth Cycle

Japan

USHIO INC. manufactures lamps and optical equipment including projectors for movie theaters.  The Company produces halogen and Houdentou lamps for semiconductor and office automation equipment.  Ushio has subsidiaries in the US, Canada, Germany, Hong Kong, Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan.

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Ushio Inc (6925 JP)

Another HUGE Ushio (6925) Buyback After A HUGE Buyback Last Year

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Ushio (6925 JP): Tie-Up with Applied Materials Adds to Long-Term Potential

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JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

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Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Ushio (6925 JP): Preparing for the Next Growth Cycle

Profits down sharply due to bottoming semiconductor cycle and investment in EUV and IC package lithography and other long-term opportunities. Huge...

Scott Foster

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