Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Yen clocked its biggest one-day move since 12/Jan. It soared to 141.601 to the USD breaching past its 200d DMA before settling at 144.092.</li>
<li>Overnight-Indexed swaps show a 45% (up from 3.5% chance just 2-days back) chance that the BOJ would end its negative interest rates policy at this month’s meeting.</li>
<li>Leveraged funds have ramped up their net-short positioning in the yen, the most since April 2022, according to CFTC data. Liquidations might have triggered sharp moves.</li>
</ul>


The Yen clocked its biggest one-day move since 12/Jan. It soared to 141.601 to the USD breaching past its 200d DMA before settling at 144.092.
Overnight-Indexed swaps show a 45% (up from 3.5% chance just 2-days back) chance that the BOJ would end its negative interest rates policy at this month’s meeting.
Leveraged funds have ramped up their net-short positioning in the yen, the most since April 2022, according to CFTC data. Liquidations might have triggered sharp moves.


Yen Soars past 200d DMA Clocking a Record Daily Move on BoJ Governor Remarks

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The early hikers club comprising e.g. Brazil and Mexico could be a decent steepener trade from here as long as FX vol remains relatively muted</li><li>Receiving rates in Brazil, Poland or India amidst this global bond party makes sense</li><li>As markets have outpaced central banks and vanilla economists in pricing in future rate cuts while eagerly purchasing bonds, the question that arises is how to effectively navigate this transition from a period of rapid buying to an anticipated rate cutting cycle in the emerging markets.</li></ul>

The early hikers club comprising e.g. Brazil and Mexico could be a decent steepener trade from here as long as FX vol remains relatively mutedReceiving rates in Brazil, Poland or India amidst this global bond party makes senseAs markets have outpaced central banks and vanilla economists in pricing in future rate cuts while eagerly purchasing bonds, the question that arises is how to effectively navigate this transition from a period of rapid buying to an anticipated rate cutting cycle in the emerging markets.

EM by EM #33: Early Hikers = Early Steepeners?

<ul>
<li>Since December 2002, the euro has traded above parity to the USD with the only exception being the last quarter of 2022.</li>
<li>Following central banks rate decisions to pause hikes across both sides of the Atlantic, volatility in the Euro/USD pair is near 12-month lows.</li>
<li>Low volatility equates to lower option premiums. Periods of low volatility offer best opportunity for going long options.</li>
</ul>


Since December 2002, the euro has traded above parity to the USD with the only exception being the last quarter of 2022.
Following central banks rate decisions to pause hikes across both sides of the Atlantic, volatility in the Euro/USD pair is near 12-month lows.
Low volatility equates to lower option premiums. Periods of low volatility offer best opportunity for going long options.


Will Euro Shrink to Parity to the Dollar on Diverging Macro Economic Conditions?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>We’ve spent the past 2 days in London, meeting clients and hedge funds, and there was a lot of support for the idea/notion that SOFR-Fed Funds spreads reveal that USD Liquidity is not ample and that the Fed will have to end QT early.</li><li>The spread widening in SOFR – Fed Funds, caught a lot of attention over the past few days and it is interesting how swiftly the market jumps to the conclusion that it will lead to the Fed panic-ending QT already in Dec or January.</li><li>Why are SOFR – Fed Funds spreads widening and how do we deal with it?</li></ul>

We’ve spent the past 2 days in London, meeting clients and hedge funds, and there was a lot of support for the idea/notion that SOFR-Fed Funds spreads reveal that USD Liquidity is not ample and that the Fed will have to end QT early.The spread widening in SOFR – Fed Funds, caught a lot of attention over the past few days and it is interesting how swiftly the market jumps to the conclusion that it will lead to the Fed panic-ending QT already in Dec or January.Why are SOFR – Fed Funds spreads widening and how do we deal with it?

5 Things We Watch – Liquidity, Bond positioning, Oil, Consumer spending & Rates

<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">The Eurozone is on the brink of recession but with rates front-running the ECB we may see some odd patterns as the bullwhip reverses while the weakness spills over to the service sector.</span></li>
<li>The ECB needs to go on the front foot to avoid a recession or the impact of higher real incomes and FCI easing has to surprise big time (which we find unlikely).</li>
<li>Either way EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.</li>
</ul>


The Eurozone is on the brink of recession but with rates front-running the ECB we may see some odd patterns as the bullwhip reverses while the weakness spills over to the service sector.
The ECB needs to go on the front foot to avoid a recession or the impact of higher real incomes and FCI easing has to surprise big time (which we find unlikely).
Either way EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.


Out of the Box #25: Europe. From Technical Recession to an Real One?

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Yen Soars past 200d DMA Clocking a Record Daily Move on BoJ Governor Remarks

Central Bank Governors are trained to speak sparsely. And there is a good reason for that. For when they speak, markets gyrate furiously. Short...

Mint Finance

EM by EM #33: Early Hikers = Early Steepeners?

Conclusions up front:– The early hikers club comprising e.g. Brazil and Mexico could be a decent steepener trade from here as long as FX vol...

Steno Research

Will Euro Shrink to Parity to the Dollar on Diverging Macro Economic Conditions?

Euro is languishing near 3-week low. Single currency is down 1% this week and on course for the steepest weekly decline since May. Traders are...

Mint Finance

5 Things We Watch – Liquidity, Bond positioning, Oil, Consumer spending & Rates

We’ve spent the past 2 days in London, meeting clients and hedge funds, and there was a lot of support for the idea/notion that...

Steno Research

Out of the Box #25: Europe. From Technical Recession to an Real One?

EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.

Steno Research

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