Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Let’s start with the current situation in the Red Sea.</li><li>Things are very grim and the only container ships that currently dare to sail through the Red Sea are Russian due to their support of Iran and the Houthis.</li><li>Yesterday a Maersk ship hauling US government cargo had to turn back in the Red Sea after explosions nearby.</li></ul>

Let’s start with the current situation in the Red Sea.Things are very grim and the only container ships that currently dare to sail through the Red Sea are Russian due to their support of Iran and the Houthis.Yesterday a Maersk ship hauling US government cargo had to turn back in the Red Sea after explosions nearby.

Shipping Watch: Consider buying your Christmas presents now!

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul><li>Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to capitalize on its stride, or if the bet in fact has got legs and fundamentals working for it.</li><li>Yesterday morning CET, the BoJ announced its latest monetary policy decision, and once again, it chose to maintain the status quo.</li><li>While FX and FI are synonymous to Japan, its equity market has arguably transformed from under-equitized to one of the hottest bull markets in the uncertain conditions of today.</li></ul>

Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to capitalize on its stride, or if the bet in fact has got legs and fundamentals working for it.Yesterday morning CET, the BoJ announced its latest monetary policy decision, and once again, it chose to maintain the status quo.While FX and FI are synonymous to Japan, its equity market has arguably transformed from under-equitized to one of the hottest bull markets in the uncertain conditions of today.

Equity Watch: Japan – Board or abort Nikkei 225?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>The ECB is unlikely to rock the boat on Thursday but we still find strong risk/reward in betting on substantial forecast errors by the staff in Frankfurt in the coming months.</li><li>Here is why!In this short update on the ECB ahead of the first meeting of the year on Thursday, we aim at collecting our observations on EUR inflation, EUR growth and EUR liquidity- and boil it all down to an actionable assessment of the ECB outlook versus the forward pricing.</li><li>The ECB will most likely patiently await the outcome of wage developments through Q1 and the scope of VAT increases impacting the EUR HICP outlook.</li></ul>

The ECB is unlikely to rock the boat on Thursday but we still find strong risk/reward in betting on substantial forecast errors by the staff in Frankfurt in the coming months.Here is why!In this short update on the ECB ahead of the first meeting of the year on Thursday, we aim at collecting our observations on EUR inflation, EUR growth and EUR liquidity- and boil it all down to an actionable assessment of the ECB outlook versus the forward pricing.The ECB will most likely patiently await the outcome of wage developments through Q1 and the scope of VAT increases impacting the EUR HICP outlook.

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Last time around in our EM series we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the supply side and that the reluctance of the Chinese leadership to back anything domestically beyond back-stopping financial fragility caused Real Estate rug-pulling and risks causing more goods-deflation to the RoW in 2024,  which may act as a counterweight to the current momentum in freight rates.</li><li>Whether that call comes to fruition is obviously subject to risk but what is beyond dispute is that any policy action aimed at boosting output will necessarily enhance the leverage level which is already at astronomical levels in relative terms</li><li>Instead of committing to reverse the dynamics that the CCP themselves let loose, a variety of policy tweaks have been implemented to minimize the damage: Front rate cuts to easing capital requirements for banks and easing of mortgage rules for first-time buyers.</li></ul>

Last time around in our EM series we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the supply side and that the reluctance of the Chinese leadership to back anything domestically beyond back-stopping financial fragility caused Real Estate rug-pulling and risks causing more goods-deflation to the RoW in 2024,  which may act as a counterweight to the current momentum in freight rates.Whether that call comes to fruition is obviously subject to risk but what is beyond dispute is that any policy action aimed at boosting output will necessarily enhance the leverage level which is already at astronomical levels in relative termsInstead of committing to reverse the dynamics that the CCP themselves let loose, a variety of policy tweaks have been implemented to minimize the damage: Front rate cuts to easing capital requirements for banks and easing of mortgage rules for first-time buyers.

China Watch: From a controlled demolition to another round of damage control?

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s Great Game! There’s a whole lot to cover in geopolitics currently, so let’s get straight to it:Peace in sight?</li><li>As presented last week, the US is looking at a complex ‘decision matrix’ in the Red Sea Crisis.</li><li>The State Department have been working tirelessly with Arab partners such as Qatar and Egypt to broker a peace deal between Israel and Hamas, but Israel have ultimately rejected it.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s Great Game! There’s a whole lot to cover in geopolitics currently, so let’s get straight to it:Peace in sight?As presented last week, the US is looking at a complex ‘decision matrix’ in the Red Sea Crisis.The State Department have been working tirelessly with Arab partners such as Qatar and Egypt to broker a peace deal between Israel and Hamas, but Israel have ultimately rejected it.

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Shipping Watch: Consider buying your Christmas presents now!

Let’s start with the current situation in the Red Sea. Things are very grim and the only container ships that currently dare to sail through the...

Steno Research

Equity Watch: Japan – Board or abort Nikkei 225?

Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to...

Steno Research

ECB Watch: Trading the January lull

The ECB is unlikely to rock the boat on Thursday but we still find strong risk/reward in betting on substantial forecast errors by the staff in...

Steno Research

China Watch: From a controlled demolition to another round of damage control?

Last time around in our EM series (see here) we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the...

Steno Research

Great Game: No Red Sea Solution in Sight

Welcome to this week’s Great Game! There’s a whole lot to cover in geopolitics currently, so let’s get straight to it:Peace in sight? As presented...

Steno Research

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