External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Since our latest XCCY publication; the tight levels of EUR prints by Norwegian issuers resulted in additional EUR prints from Scandinavian issuers.</li><li>Overall issuance from Norway was approx. 3x that of last year incl. covered prints. Swedish names also printed in EUR, but the trend continues with less issuance compared to last year.</li><li>USD issuance YTD has been elevated compared to previous years with an uptick from last year by non-USD issuers printing in USD. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Since our latest XCCY publication; the tight levels of EUR prints by Norwegian issuers resulted in additional EUR prints from Scandinavian issuers.Overall issuance from Norway was approx. 3x that of last year incl. covered prints. Swedish names also printed in EUR, but the trend continues with less issuance compared to last year.USD issuance YTD has been elevated compared to previous years with an uptick from last year by non-USD issuers printing in USD. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome to a short and sweet look at the current business cycle, what to expect, and which assets to buy ahead of what could be significant cyclical expansion.</li><li>April data has in general been week in our models and nowcasts, which was reflected in the fairly dovish CPI report yesterday.</li><li>However, May actitivity is picking up momentum again, and our Truck Demand indicator points to the business cycle picking up again from May onwards.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome to a short and sweet look at the current business cycle, what to expect, and which assets to buy ahead of what could be significant cyclical expansion.April data has in general been week in our models and nowcasts, which was reflected in the fairly dovish CPI report yesterday.However, May actitivity is picking up momentum again, and our Truck Demand indicator points to the business cycle picking up again from May onwards.

Business Cycle Watch – What to buy if manufacturing keeps surprising to the upside?

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly EM editorial where we shed light on the most important developments in the EM space in the context of the impulses from the USD markets.</li><li>Things are heating up in the global macro space as we are standing at crossroads.</li><li>Is the macro momentum finally rolling over globally (including in the US) or are we amidst a potential rebound from China that wreaks havoc with the current increasingly dovish Western consensus?</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly EM editorial where we shed light on the most important developments in the EM space in the context of the impulses from the USD markets.Things are heating up in the global macro space as we are standing at crossroads.Is the macro momentum finally rolling over globally (including in the US) or are we amidst a potential rebound from China that wreaks havoc with the current increasingly dovish Western consensus?

China Watch: No one has noticed that China is exporting INFLATION again..

<ul><li>Main Takeaways: Core inflation is still way too hot, but this report speaks well to the crowd hoping for rate cuts.</li><li>Food and Shelter are the two dovish surprises… Both are re-accelerating in live data which will likely come into effect laterApril was super soft in real-time activity data and there isn’t much to suggest that it will continue in May, where data is on the rise again… But for now, this feeds the FCI loop in a positive sense, which will allow risk assets to ride the dovish CPI wave for now.</li><li>US Headline CPI rose 0.31% on the month, whilst core inflation increased by 0.29%, with consensus at 0.4% and 0.3%.</li></ul>

Main Takeaways: Core inflation is still way too hot, but this report speaks well to the crowd hoping for rate cuts.Food and Shelter are the two dovish surprises… Both are re-accelerating in live data which will likely come into effect laterApril was super soft in real-time activity data and there isn’t much to suggest that it will continue in May, where data is on the rise again… But for now, this feeds the FCI loop in a positive sense, which will allow risk assets to ride the dovish CPI wave for now.US Headline CPI rose 0.31% on the month, whilst core inflation increased by 0.29%, with consensus at 0.4% and 0.3%.

US CPI Review – Everything is soft in April

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Even though manufacturing data and headline HICP year on year in the Euro Area are screaming for easier financial conditions, the ECB seems reluctant (or at least slow) to cut rates and rather prefer just to be the lagged Fed.</li><li>If it is fear of wider real rates spread towards other currencies, especially the USD, then we argue that Lagarde &amp; co don’t need to worry.</li><li>Firstly, because we find arguments from the past 10 years that EUR/USD can go higher even in an environment in which USD – EUR real rates spread widen and that real rates is not the only macro factor in determining the EUR/USD path.</li></ul>

Even though manufacturing data and headline HICP year on year in the Euro Area are screaming for easier financial conditions, the ECB seems reluctant (or at least slow) to cut rates and rather prefer just to be the lagged Fed.If it is fear of wider real rates spread towards other currencies, especially the USD, then we argue that Lagarde &amp; co don’t need to worry.Firstly, because we find arguments from the past 10 years that EUR/USD can go higher even in an environment in which USD – EUR real rates spread widen and that real rates is not the only macro factor in determining the EUR/USD path.

Out of the Box: Don’t worry about the real rates spread, ECB

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Nordea XCCY publication: May Edition

Since our latest XCCY publication; the tight levels of EUR prints by Norwegian issuers resulted in additional EUR prints from Scandinavian issuers.

Nordea

Business Cycle Watch – What to buy if manufacturing keeps surprising to the upside?

Hello everyone, and welcome to a short and sweet look at the current business cycle, what to expect, and which assets to buy ahead of what could...

Steno Research

China Watch: No one has noticed that China is exporting INFLATION again..

Welcome to our weekly EM editorial where we shed light on the most important developments in the EM space in the context of the impulses from the...

Steno Research

US CPI Review – Everything is soft in April

Main Takeaways: Core inflation is still way too hot, but this report speaks well to the crowd hoping for rate cuts. Food and Shelter are the two...

Steno Research

Out of the Box: Don’t worry about the real rates spread, ECB

Even though manufacturing data and headline HICP year on year in the Euro Area are screaming for easier financial conditions, the ECB seems...

Steno Research

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