Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>April 2025 saw extreme market volatility after President Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs, mainly aimed at China.</li><li>Subsequent delays and complex exemptions fueled market swings, sparking fears of recession and inflation. First quarter 2025 US GDP contraction is not a trend.</li><li>Despite headline risks, deeper analysis suggests a more balanced global economy over the longer term. Both China and the US will do whatever it takes to avoid a recession</li></ul>

April 2025 saw extreme market volatility after President Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs, mainly aimed at China.Subsequent delays and complex exemptions fueled market swings, sparking fears of recession and inflation. First quarter 2025 US GDP contraction is not a trend.Despite headline risks, deeper analysis suggests a more balanced global economy over the longer term. Both China and the US will do whatever it takes to avoid a recession

Assessing Trump’s Shock and Awe Move in Apr 2025

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Federal Reserve and Bank of England both make decisions that are more dovish than expected</li>
<li>Market pricing reflects uncertainty and potential easing in the future</li>
<li>Central banks take steps to ensure smooth funding and liquidity in the markets, including adjustments to repo facilities and addressing debt ceiling issues.</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Federal Reserve and Bank of England both make decisions that are more dovish than expected
Market pricing reflects uncertainty and potential easing in the future
Central banks take steps to ensure smooth funding and liquidity in the markets, including adjustments to repo facilities and addressing debt ceiling issues.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: Hawkish cuts and dovish holds

<ul><li>JP Morgan's base case outcome for 2025 euro rate outlook is positive, with a focus on growing euro economy and inflation reaching 2%</li><li>French political uncertainty may cause modest widening in intra-EMU spreads, but overall outlook remains positive</li><li>German swap spreads expected to stay range bound with modest widening bias, driven by technical flows and repo rates</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

JP Morgan's base case outcome for 2025 euro rate outlook is positive, with a focus on growing euro economy and inflation reaching 2%French political uncertainty may cause modest widening in intra-EMU spreads, but overall outlook remains positiveGerman swap spreads expected to stay range bound with modest widening bias, driven by technical flows and repo ratesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: European rates 2025 outlook

<ul><li>Market fluctuations in CNY and Euro currencies, potential impact of PBOC reaction function and ECB policies</li><li>Possibility of increased pessimism in Europe not fully priced in, with potential for further downside in Euro</li><li>Recommendations for underweight positions on Euro compared to USD, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen, with potential for continued market movement</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Market fluctuations in CNY and Euro currencies, potential impact of PBOC reaction function and ECB policiesPossibility of increased pessimism in Europe not fully priced in, with potential for further downside in EuroRecommendations for underweight positions on Euro compared to USD, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen, with potential for continued market movementThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Are trade risks already priced into currencies?

<ul><li>Discussion on US elections and Fed policy implications</li><li>Impact of policy uncertainty on calendar spreads and wild card options</li><li>Investor positioning and its influence on various bond contracts</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Discussion on US elections and Fed policy implicationsImpact of policy uncertainty on calendar spreads and wild card optionsInvestor positioning and its influence on various bond contractsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

At Any Rate: Treasury Futures Quarterly Roll

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD (USD CURNCY)

Assessing Trump’s Shock and Awe Move in Apr 2025

This report presents a contrarian view to the doom and gloom view of the global economy as trade tensions escalate between the US and China

Kok Peng Chan

Global Rates: Hawkish cuts and dovish holds

Overall, the BOE and Fed's monetary policy decisions, potential government shutdown, debt ceiling concerns, and Fed's balance sheet shifts are key...

At Any Rate

Global Rates: European rates 2025 outlook

The US election result has created uncertainty, impacting policy rates and Euro strategy, with a focus on owning duration and carry trades,...

At Any Rate

Global FX: Are trade risks already priced into currencies?

The Euro and CNY saw significant movements this week, with the PBOC setting a line in the sand for the CNY, leading to a potential shift in the...

At Any Rate

At Any Rate: Treasury Futures Quarterly Roll

JP Morgan's global research podcast discusses upcoming US elections and Fed policy, quarterly roles in rates markets after recent events and...

At Any Rate

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