Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to the “Week at a Glance,” where we examine the key releases and themes for the week ahead through the lens of macro trading.</li><li>China has reduced the 7-day repo rate by 10 basis points, following up with a cut in the loan prime rate.</li><li>This move mirrors the strategy from June 13, 2023.</li></ul>

Welcome to the “Week at a Glance,” where we examine the key releases and themes for the week ahead through the lens of macro trading.China has reduced the 7-day repo rate by 10 basis points, following up with a cut in the loan prime rate.This move mirrors the strategy from June 13, 2023.

The Week At Glance: A look at US Cycle indicators. You sure consensus is right?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Today, I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.</li><li>These are the key questions I will address, and I will summarize both the pros and cons of each viewpoint, including my own bottom line: Is liquidity no longer improving, but rather at risk of weakening in the coming months? Is the economy accelerating rather than slowing? Is the commodity complex heavily undervalued or overvalued?</li><li>The equity rotation paired with the sharp sell-off in Tech has had me thinking, and we therefore need to litmus-test every corner of our current thesis. Follow along below.</li></ul>

Today, I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.These are the key questions I will address, and I will summarize both the pros and cons of each viewpoint, including my own bottom line: Is liquidity no longer improving, but rather at risk of weakening in the coming months? Is the economy accelerating rather than slowing? Is the commodity complex heavily undervalued or overvalued?The equity rotation paired with the sharp sell-off in Tech has had me thinking, and we therefore need to litmus-test every corner of our current thesis. Follow along below.

Steno Signals #109 – What if We Are All Wrong on Liquidity, Rates and Commodities?

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.</li><li>No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.</li><li>We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.</li></ul>

Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Powell's dovish tone at the press conference led to initial market reaction, but subsequent dollar rally due to revised growth and inflation forecasts in the SCP release</li><li>Market leaning towards higher median dot in SCP, but overall outlook remains for shallower cutting cycle by Fed</li><li>Yen vulnerability due to negative real yields despite BOJ rate hikes, yen weakening may impact other Asian currencies and markets</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Powell's dovish tone at the press conference led to initial market reaction, but subsequent dollar rally due to revised growth and inflation forecasts in the SCP releaseMarket leaning towards higher median dot in SCP, but overall outlook remains for shallower cutting cycle by FedYen vulnerability due to negative real yields despite BOJ rate hikes, yen weakening may impact other Asian currencies and marketsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: An Uncomfortable Setup for USD Bulls and Bears

<ul><li>The Federal Reserve was expected to announce tapering of quantitative tightening (QT) in March and implement it in April, but recent minutes suggest a more relaxed approach with no urgency to start the process soon.</li><li>SOFR rates have trended lower in January, easing concerns over upward pressure, and there is plenty of liquidity in the marketplace, with significant RRP and reserve balances.</li><li>Forecasting for the Fed's balance sheet evolution suggests a less volatile TGA balance and a shift in the relationship between t-bill issuance and RRP balances, leading to a more stable scenario for reserves in the near term.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Federal Reserve was expected to announce tapering of quantitative tightening (QT) in March and implement it in April, but recent minutes suggest a more relaxed approach with no urgency to start the process soon.SOFR rates have trended lower in January, easing concerns over upward pressure, and there is plenty of liquidity in the marketplace, with significant RRP and reserve balances.Forecasting for the Fed's balance sheet evolution suggests a less volatile TGA balance and a shift in the relationship between t-bill issuance and RRP balances, leading to a more stable scenario for reserves in the near term.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US Rates: Slowly but Surely, Pushing Back the QT Taper Timeline

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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The Week At Glance: A look at US Cycle indicators. You sure consensus is right?

Welcome to the “Week at a Glance,” where we examine the key releases and themes for the week ahead through the lens of macro trading. China has...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #109 – What if We Are All Wrong on Liquidity, Rates and Commodities?

I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.

Steno Research

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent...

Steno Research

Global FX: An Uncomfortable Setup for USD Bulls and Bears

The dovish tone from Powell led to a dollar rally, with potential future rate hikes and mixed signals for FX traders, particularly impacting Asian...

At Any Rate

US Rates: Slowly but Surely, Pushing Back the QT Taper Timeline

Overall, the Federal Reserve did not make any changes to Quantitative Tightening in March, with forecasts suggesting that RRP and reserves will...

At Any Rate

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