Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Steno Research: Stubbornness despite Chinese demand woes As China’s economic woes deepen with the housing market slumps, we note that the demand side in the energy space looks just as fragile as the supply side.</li><li>Sure, China might be taking advantage of the Russian discount, but the Ruble is down some 30% against the CNY year-to-date so it is not catching a bid that one would otherwise expect.</li><li>With Country Garden (potentially) defaulting on fixed-income payments expect more weakness to show up in CNY pairs, which in turn adds even weaker commodity demand from China.</li></ul>

Steno Research: Stubbornness despite Chinese demand woes As China’s economic woes deepen with the housing market slumps, we note that the demand side in the energy space looks just as fragile as the supply side.Sure, China might be taking advantage of the Russian discount, but the Ruble is down some 30% against the CNY year-to-date so it is not catching a bid that one would otherwise expect.With Country Garden (potentially) defaulting on fixed-income payments expect more weakness to show up in CNY pairs, which in turn adds even weaker commodity demand from China.

The Energy Cable #33 – The handoff – From positioning to fundamentals

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul>
<li>On August 9th, President Biden signed an executive order which addresses investment from US companies and individuals into China.</li>
<li>The executive order is a follow-up on the October 7, 2022 order to ban exports of advanced chips and other strategic technology, but the executive order focuses on investment in Chinese firms that operate in these areas, which was seen as a loophole in the October 7 order.</li>
<li>The Investment Screening order stipulates certain areas that are simply banned from investments, some areas where the government needs to be notified and then some areas that are completely exempt.</li>
</ul>


On August 9th, President Biden signed an executive order which addresses investment from US companies and individuals into China.
The executive order is a follow-up on the October 7, 2022 order to ban exports of advanced chips and other strategic technology, but the executive order focuses on investment in Chinese firms that operate in these areas, which was seen as a loophole in the October 7 order.
The Investment Screening order stipulates certain areas that are simply banned from investments, some areas where the government needs to be notified and then some areas that are completely exempt.


Investment Screening: Why Biden’s Order is Actually a Good Sign for US-China Relations

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Broader bearish USD sentiment has moderated somewhat, the latest positioning data from the CFTC shows.</li><li>Non-Commercial Accounts cut short USD positioning by a little over USD3.4bn in the week through Tuesday, taking the aggregate bear bet on the USD versus the major currencies back to USD15.8bn.</li><li>Data shows that Real Money Accounts trimmed their overall short USD position USD2.4bn to USD38.9bn over the week while Leveraged Accounts lifted their (modest) short USD position by USD2.5bn to USD4.8bn.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Broader bearish USD sentiment has moderated somewhat, the latest positioning data from the CFTC shows.Non-Commercial Accounts cut short USD positioning by a little over USD3.4bn in the week through Tuesday, taking the aggregate bear bet on the USD versus the major currencies back to USD15.8bn.Data shows that Real Money Accounts trimmed their overall short USD position USD2.4bn to USD38.9bn over the week while Leveraged Accounts lifted their (modest) short USD position by USD2.5bn to USD4.8bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Moderates

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former largest developer) is to suspend trading of at least 10 onshore bonds after a week where they failed to pay coupons of a couple of international payments.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng Property Index (HSP) is down 20% y-t-d but only lost 0.2% on Friday despite another landslide in the Country Garden stock.</li>
<li>If the HSP Index drops over the coming days, it ought to be taken as a signal that Chinese RE credit will decline further due to a lack of confidence in the financial system.</li>
</ul>


We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former largest developer) is to suspend trading of at least 10 onshore bonds after a week where they failed to pay coupons of a couple of international payments.
The Hang Seng Property Index (HSP) is down 20% y-t-d but only lost 0.2% on Friday despite another landslide in the Country Garden stock.
If the HSP Index drops over the coming days, it ought to be taken as a signal that Chinese RE credit will decline further due to a lack of confidence in the financial system.


Asset Allocation Watch: Country Garden Melt-Down? 5 Charts on Cross-Asset Spill-Overs!

<ul>
<li>Welcome to our weekly flagship editorial.</li>
<li>The markets over the past week or two have made little sense as commodities (especially energy) have continued to outperform risk assets despite China apparently suffering from long-covid symptoms economically.</li>
<li>Chinese money and credit trends look worse than US trends post Lehman, which means that either China rebounds or else it is the end of the Chinese economy as we know it! We have timed our rotation from high-beta tech/AI to Energy/Commodity proxies amazingly well, but we need to remain vigilant at this juncture.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to our weekly flagship editorial.
The markets over the past week or two have made little sense as commodities (especially energy) have continued to outperform risk assets despite China apparently suffering from long-covid symptoms economically.
Chinese money and credit trends look worse than US trends post Lehman, which means that either China rebounds or else it is the end of the Chinese economy as we know it! We have timed our rotation from high-beta tech/AI to Energy/Commodity proxies amazingly well, but we need to remain vigilant at this juncture.


Steno Signals #60: Worse than Lehman in China!? The 3 Most Important Questions Right Now!

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The Energy Cable #33 – The handoff – From positioning to fundamentals

Steno Research: Stubbornness despite Chinese demand woes As China’s economic woes deepen with the housing market slumps, we note that the demand...

Steno Research

Investment Screening: Why Biden’s Order is Actually a Good Sign for US-China Relations

On August 9th, President Biden signed an executive order which addresses investment from US companies and individuals into China. The executive...

Steno Research

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Moderates

Non-Commercial Accounts cut short USD positioning by a little over USD3.4bn in the week through Tuesday, taking the aggregate bear bet on the USD

Scotiabank

Asset Allocation Watch: Country Garden Melt-Down? 5 Charts on Cross-Asset Spill-Overs!

We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #60: Worse than Lehman in China!? The 3 Most Important Questions Right Now!

The markets over the past week or two have made little sense as commodities (especially energy) have continued to outperform risk assets despite...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)