Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The oil market consensus is getting very uniform as everyone and their mother has figured out that there is an obvious supply deficit through Q4.</li><li>Is it time to switch focus in energy markets to better risk/rewards than long oil bets?</li><li>We take a look at oil, natural gas and uranium bets in this weeks Energy Cable newsletter.</li></ul>

The oil market consensus is getting very uniform as everyone and their mother has figured out that there is an obvious supply deficit through Q4.Is it time to switch focus in energy markets to better risk/rewards than long oil bets?We take a look at oil, natural gas and uranium bets in this weeks Energy Cable newsletter.

The Energy Cable #39: A Maturing Bull Market

<ul><li>Warren and 3Fourteen Research has been bang on with their bullish crude trade posted in July, which has returned approx. 33%</li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">On the other side of the energy space, Natural Gas is starting to look like a possible substitute for a long crude position, while the uranium and nuclear trade could be running on fumes.</span></li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">We had headline numbers in CPI and PPI jump on the back of a strong month in crude and we also note that the nuclear sector is flying higher with Sprott’s physical ETF being up 13% last week on the back of FOMO and political acceptance in nuclear space. </span></li></ul>

Warren and 3Fourteen Research has been bang on with their bullish crude trade posted in July, which has returned approx. 33%On the other side of the energy space, Natural Gas is starting to look like a possible substitute for a long crude position, while the uranium and nuclear trade could be running on fumes.We had headline numbers in CPI and PPI jump on the back of a strong month in crude and we also note that the nuclear sector is flying higher with Sprott’s physical ETF being up 13% last week on the back of FOMO and political acceptance in nuclear space. 

The Energy Cable #38: Time to switch exposures in Energy space?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the December index review on 3 December and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 December.</p><p>The review period for the rebalance ends on 19 November, so we are exactly two-thirds of the way through the review period.</p><p>As of the close on 20 September, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> as a potential inclusion to the S&amp;P/ASX100 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a> as a potential deletion.</p><p>For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, potential inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imugene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20276:1" rel="noopener">Imugene Ltd (IMU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paladin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10117:1" rel="noopener">Paladin Energy (PDN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amalgamated-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20978:1" rel="noopener">Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arena-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12209:1" rel="noopener">Arena Reit (ARF AU)</a>, while potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kogan-com-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23575:1" rel="noopener">Kogan.com (KGN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/redbubble-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24321:1" rel="noopener">Redbubble Ltd (RBL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monadelphous-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:553:1" rel="noopener">Monadelphous (MND AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omni-bridgeway-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8840:1" rel="noopener">Imf Bentham Ltd (OBL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spark-new-zealand-ltd-3dcc706a-f086-4dd4-882b-2a42a36ccf8d" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26915:1" rel="noopener">Spark New Zealand (SPK AU)</a>.</p><p>With multiple M&amp;A deal pending, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/afterpay-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26940:1" rel="noopener">Afterpay Touch (APT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-search-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:773:1" rel="noopener">Oil Search Ltd (OSH AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spark-infrastructure-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:595:1" rel="noopener">Spark Infrastructure (SKI AU)</a>, there could be more additions to the index if deals are completed or highly likely to be completed by end November.</p><p>Short interest on most potential inclusions is quite low, while the short interest on many potential exclusions is quite high.</p>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the December index review on 3 December and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 December.The review period for the rebalance ends on 19 November, so we are exactly two-thirds of the way through the review period.As of the close on 20 September, we see Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) as a potential inclusion to the S&amp;P/ASX100 and Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) as a potential deletion.For the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), potential inclusions are Imugene Ltd (IMU AU), Paladin Energy (PDN AU), Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU) and Arena Reit (ARF AU), while potential deletions are Kogan.com (KGN AU), Redbubble Ltd (RBL AU), Monadelphous (MND AU), Imf Bentham Ltd (OBL AU) and Spark New Zealand (SPK AU).With multiple M&amp;A deal pending, including Afterpay Touch (APT AU), Sydney Airport (SYD AU), Ausnet Services (AST AU), Oil Search Ltd (OSH AU) and Spark Infrastructure (SKI AU), there could be more additions to the index if deals are completed or highly likely to be completed by end November.Short interest on most potential inclusions is quite low, while the short interest on many potential exclusions is quite high.

ASX100/​200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential December Changes With Large Impact

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Commodities

<p>Our September cyclical commodity sentiment review highlights notable divergence in the commodity space, with potential over-exuberance seen in copper and platinum; early signs of positive change seen in corn via US farmer sentiment; an accelerating slide for crude oil sentiment towards negative territory; and weak showings for uranium and mineral sands.  We discuss recent catalysts picked up via text mining for our core cyclical commodity sentiment indicators below.</p>
<p>For an introduction to TMI's methodology &amp; use cases, please take a look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/introducing-tmi-data-science-delivering-alpha-with-custom-nlp-based-leading-indicators" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42826" rel="noopener">Introducing TMI Data Science: Delivering Alpha With Custom NLP-Based Leading Indicators</a></p>

Our September cyclical commodity sentiment review highlights notable divergence in the commodity space, with potential over-exuberance seen in copper and platinum; early signs of positive change seen in corn via US farmer sentiment; an accelerating slide for crude oil sentiment towards negative territory; and weak showings for uranium and mineral sands.  We discuss recent catalysts picked up via text mining for our core cyclical commodity sentiment indicators below.
For an introduction to TMI's methodology &amp; use cases, please take a look at Introducing TMI Data Science: Delivering Alpha With Custom NLP-Based Leading Indicators

TMI Indicators: Cyclical Commodity Sentiment Review

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<div><p>In the next Smartkarma Webinar, we will be joined by Buyside Portfolio Manager <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/kenny-arnott-19657b44" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kenny Arnott</a><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/susanta-mazumdar-b61a8a85/?originalSubdomain=sg" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a> who will discuss his bull thesis and ideas in Uranium. The webinar will be hosted on 13 May 2020 at 1700hrs Singapore/Hong Kong time.</p></div><hr><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><h2>
<a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=82036420470" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a>.</h2></div></div></div><hr><div><p>Kenny Arnott has thirty years’ experience in equity and commodity markets. Prior to founding Arnott Capital, Kenny was at Macquarie Bank from 1994-99 in the Commodity and Equities Group as a derivative trader. From 1990-94, he was at Dunavant Enterprises, employed as a commodity trader. Dunavant Enterprise at the time was the largest cotton trading firm globally.</p></div>

In the next Smartkarma Webinar, we will be joined by Buyside Portfolio Manager Kenny Arnott who will discuss his bull thesis and ideas in Uranium. The webinar will be hosted on 13 May 2020 at 1700hrs Singapore/Hong Kong time.
Register for the Webinar here.Kenny Arnott has thirty years’ experience in equity and commodity markets. Prior to founding Arnott Capital, Kenny was at Macquarie Bank from 1994-99 in the Commodity and Equities Group as a derivative trader. From 1990-94, he was at Dunavant Enterprises, employed as a commodity trader. Dunavant Enterprise at the time was the largest cotton trading firm globally.

Smartkarma Webinar | Uranium: The Bull Case & Actionable Ideas

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Uranium (UXA COMDTY)

The Energy Cable #39: A Maturing Bull Market

The oil market consensus is getting very uniform as everyone and their mother has figured out that there is an obvious supply deficit through...

Steno Research

The Energy Cable #38: Time to switch exposures in Energy space?

Warren and 3Fourteen Research has been bang on with their bullish crude trade posted in July, which has returned approx. 33%

Steno Research

ASX100/200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential December Changes With Large Impact

There could be 1 change to the ASX100 and 5 changes to the ASX200 at the December rebalance. With a long M&A pipeline, there could be additional...

Brian Freitas

TMI Indicators: Cyclical Commodity Sentiment Review

Our NLP-based cyclical commodity sentiment review seeks to quantify

Elan Gore

Smartkarma Webinar | Uranium: The Bull Case & Actionable Ideas

In the next Smartkarma Webinar, we will be joined by Buyside Portfolio Manager Kenny Arnott who will discuss his bull thesis and ideas in Uranium....

Smartkarma Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Energy Cable #39: A Maturing Bull Market

The oil market consensus is getting very uniform as everyone and their mother has figured out that there is an obvious supply deficit through...

Steno Research

The Energy Cable #38: Time to switch exposures in Energy space?

Warren and 3Fourteen Research has been bang on with their bullish crude trade posted in July, which has returned approx. 33%

Steno Research

ASX100/​200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential December Changes With Large Impact

There could be 1 change to the ASX100 and 5 changes to the ASX200 at the December rebalance. With a long M&A pipeline, there could be additional...

Brian Freitas

TMI Indicators: Cyclical Commodity Sentiment Review

Our NLP-based cyclical commodity sentiment review seeks to quantify

Elan Gore

Smartkarma Webinar | Uranium: The Bull Case & Actionable Ideas

In the next Smartkarma Webinar, we will be joined by Buyside Portfolio Manager Kenny Arnott who will discuss his bull thesis and ideas in Uranium....

Smartkarma Research

ASX100/200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential December Changes With Large Impact