European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The offer period for white-knight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/georg-fischer-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22359:1" rel="noopener">Georg Fischer AG (FI/N SW)</a>'s acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uponor-oyj" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21787:1" rel="noopener">Uponor OYJ (UNR1V FH)</a> will end, unless extended, on 31 October. Aliaxis, which put Uponor in play, concedes defeat.</li>
<li>The waiting game has ended. Aliaxis will tender its 20% stake with €90 million capital gains (pre-tax) as consolation. GF will obtain at least 53.9% acceptances, possibly a lot more.</li>
<li>The spread has been positive for most days since mid-July, on expectations of an offer sweetening. That won't happen now. Gross spread is +0.14%. Recommendation is tender.
</li>
</ul>


The offer period for white-knight Georg Fischer AG (FI/N SW)'s acquisition of Uponor OYJ (UNR1V FH) will end, unless extended, on 31 October. Aliaxis, which put Uponor in play, concedes defeat.
The waiting game has ended. Aliaxis will tender its 20% stake with €90 million capital gains (pre-tax) as consolation. GF will obtain at least 53.9% acceptances, possibly a lot more.
The spread has been positive for most days since mid-July, on expectations of an offer sweetening. That won't happen now. Gross spread is +0.14%. Recommendation is tender.



<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/georg-fischer-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22359:1" rel="noopener">Georg Fischer AG (FI/N SW)</a> has so far purchased a 9.5% stake of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uponor-oyj" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21787:1" rel="noopener">Uponor OYJ (UNR1V FH)</a> in the market. Georg Fischer's shareholding plus irrevocable undertakings represent in total 46.4% (30 August).</li>
<li>There has been no disclosure about the shares tendered so far. Georg Fischer has extended the offer period until 31 October, while waiting to receive clearance from the European Commission.</li>
<li>Gross spread is 0.03%, so probably it is not worth becoming involved. The reason for this low spread is the acquisition of shares in the market by Georg Fischer.</li>
</ul>



Georg Fischer AG (FI/N SW) has so far purchased a 9.5% stake of Uponor OYJ (UNR1V FH) in the market. Georg Fischer's shareholding plus irrevocable undertakings represent in total 46.4% (30 August).
There has been no disclosure about the shares tendered so far. Georg Fischer has extended the offer period until 31 October, while waiting to receive clearance from the European Commission.
Gross spread is 0.03%, so probably it is not worth becoming involved. The reason for this low spread is the acquisition of shares in the market by Georg Fischer.


Georg Fischer/Uponor: Extension of Offer Period

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>If you are still long the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hokuhoku-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19006:1" rel="noopener">Financial Group (8377 JP)</a> from before, stay long.If you sold Hokuhoku from before, be long again, and buy on weakness</li>
<li>Disaster for arb players as AusSuper rewrites the record books as an investor class and shoots down Brookfield's sweetened Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyocera-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1" rel="noopener">Kyocera (6971 JP)</a> announced Q2 results and lowered its full-year forecast. Then the CEO said it was "reconsidering" what to do with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI (9433 JP)</a> shares (after an AGM disaster).</li>
</ul>


If you are still long the Financial Group (8377 JP) from before, stay long.If you sold Hokuhoku from before, be long again, and buy on weakness
Disaster for arb players as AusSuper rewrites the record books as an investor class and shoots down Brookfield's sweetened Offer for Origin Energy (ORG AU).

Kyocera (6971 JP) announced Q2 results and lowered its full-year forecast. Then the CEO said it was "reconsidering" what to do with KDDI (9433 JP) shares (after an AGM disaster).


Last Week in Event SPACE: Hokuhoku, Origin Energy, KDDI, BoJ

<ul>
<li>Marginal float helped fuel the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (VFS US)</a> bubble. Then it popped. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> Circularity Detour and subsequent unwind created the B-Share construct which means they can maintain the voting control in South Africa without maintaining economic control.</li>
<li>The backlash against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-cm-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36658:1" rel="noopener">Star CM Holdings (6698 HK)</a> calls into question the broader Chinese entertainment industry, and how it strikes a balance between viewership/profitability and ethical boundaries.</li>
</ul>


Marginal float helped fuel the VinFast (VFS US) bubble. Then it popped. 
The Prosus (PRX NA)/Naspers (NPN SJ) Circularity Detour and subsequent unwind created the B-Share construct which means they can maintain the voting control in South Africa without maintaining economic control.
The backlash against Star CM Holdings (6698 HK) calls into question the broader Chinese entertainment industry, and how it strikes a balance between viewership/profitability and ethical boundaries.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Vingroup/VinFast, Prosus/Naspers, STAR CM

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Activist investor influence in distributing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s ¥1,980bn Oriental Land (4661 JP) stake to existing shareholders could unleash over 150% potential upside</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> is coming up cheap versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a>. Yet the longer-term view suggests otherwise. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10566:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Property (ABP AU)</a> confirmed the spin-off of an ASX-listed self-storage REIT with A$3bn in total assets. There's a trade here. </li>
</ul>


Activist investor influence in distributing Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s ¥1,980bn Oriental Land (4661 JP) stake to existing shareholders could unleash over 150% potential upside

Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) is coming up cheap versus Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB). Yet the longer-term view suggests otherwise. 

Abacus Property (ABP AU) confirmed the spin-off of an ASX-listed self-storage REIT with A$3bn in total assets. There's a trade here. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Kesei/Oriental Land, Intouch, Abacus Property, Great Eagle, JS Global

Finland

Uponor Oyj manufactures and markets a wide range of plastic pipe systems for portable water and gas distribution, plumbing and heating, telecommunications, and sewage disposal.  The Company's product line includes under-floor heating systems, pipes for utility water systems, frost-free water supply systems, and radiator heating.  Uponor produces in many countries and markets worldwide.

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Uponor OYJ (UNR1V FH)

Aliaxis Condedes Defeat

The offer period for Georg Fischer's acquisition of Uponor will end soon, with Aliaxis conceding defeat and tendering its stake, therefore GF will...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Georg Fischer/Uponor: Extension of Offer Period

Georg Fischer has both acquired a 9.5% stake of Uponor in the market and extended the offer period until 31 October while it awaits clearance from...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hokuhoku, Origin Energy, KDDI, BoJ

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Vingroup/VinFast, Prosus/Naspers, STAR CM

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kesei/Oriental Land, Intouch, Abacus Property, Great Eagle, JS Global

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Aliaxis Condedes Defeat

​The offer period for Georg Fischer's acquisition of Uponor will end soon, with Aliaxis conceding defeat and tendering its stake, therefore GF will...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Georg Fischer/Uponor: Extension of Offer Period

Georg Fischer has both acquired a 9.5% stake of Uponor in the market and extended the offer period until 31 October while it awaits clearance from...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hokuhoku, Origin Energy, KDDI, BoJ

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Vingroup/VinFast, Prosus/Naspers, STAR CM

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kesei/Oriental Land, Intouch, Abacus Property, Great Eagle, JS Global

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

The offer period for Georg Fischer's acquisition of Uponor will end soon, with Aliaxis conceding defeat and tendering its stake, therefore GF will...