Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

UPL's Q2/23-24 results were very weak, with revenues and earnings declining significantly and a deterioration in working capital. Our scepticism of the company has continued to deepen with the results. We are concerned about the lack of discussion on the huge debt reduction and unusual earnings call set-up in Q4/22-23, as well as the subsequent rebound in debt in Q1/23-24. We note that the pressure to reduce net debt to USD 2 bn in Q4/22-23 was to meet management's aggressive guidance and rating agencies' expectations. Management had released the Q4 results in early May 2023, almost halfway through Q1/23-24. Yet, there were few indications of very weak Q1 or H1 numbers. In addition, we are sceptical of management's guidance, even after it has been revised downwards. The new guidance implies c. 18% y-o-y revenue growth and a c. 28-30% increase in EBITDA in H2/23-24. That said, management does not expect y-o-y improvement in Q3. Hence, for UPL to meet the guidance, all the growth would have to be registered in Q4. We do not believe that the company will be able to meet the full-year guidance.

  UPL's Q2/23-24 results were very weak, with revenues and earnings declining significantly and a deterioration in working capital. Our scepticism of the company has continued to deepen with the results. We are concerned about the lack of discussion on the huge debt reduction and unusual earnings call set-up in Q4/22-23, as well as the subsequent rebound in debt in Q1/23-24. We note that the pressure to reduce net debt to USD 2 bn in Q4/22-23 was to meet management's aggressive guidance and rating agencies' expectations. Management had released the Q4 results in early May 2023, almost halfway through Q1/23-24. Yet, there were few indications of very weak Q1 or H1 numbers.   In addition, we are sceptical of management's guidance, even after it has been revised downwards. The new guidance implies c. 18% y-o-y revenue growth and a c. 28-30% increase in EBITDA in H2/23-24. That said, management does not expect y-o-y improvement in Q3. Hence, for UPL to meet the guidance, all the growth would have to be registered in Q4. We do not believe that the company will be able to meet the full-year guidance. 

UPL Limited - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Adani Green Energy</a></li><li><a href='/entities/vedanta-resources-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Vedanta Resources</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-jinmao-holdings-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Jinmao Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Geely Auto</a></li><li><a href='/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>First Pacific Co</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Adani Green EnergyVedanta ResourcesChina Jinmao HoldingsGeely AutoFirst Pacific Coand more...

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY Next 50 indices in the March 2024 rebalance.</li>
<li>According to my latest estimates, there could be up to three changes or NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY Next 50. The NIFTY 50 changes could have high impact.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY Next 50 indices in the March 2024 rebalance.
According to my latest estimates, there could be up to three changes or NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY Next 50. The NIFTY 50 changes could have high impact.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 24: Bharat Electronics Vs L&T Might Be Interesting

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/medco-energi-internasional-tbk-pt' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Medco Energi</a></li><li><a href='/entities/nagacorp-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>NagaCorp Ltd</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Vanke </a></li><li><a href='/entities/lippo-malls-indonesia-retail-trust' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust</a></li><li><a href='/entities/tata-motors-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Tata Motors Ltd</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Medco EnergiNagaCorp LtdChina Vanke Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail TrustTata Motors Ltdand more...

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone / Credit

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/shui-on-land-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Shui On Land</a></li><li><a href='/entities/seazen' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Seazen (Formerly Future Land)</a></li><li><a href='/entities/yuexiu-property-co-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Yuexiu Property </a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Hongqiao</a></li><li><a href='/entities/longfor-properties' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Longfor Properties</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Shui On LandSeazen (Formerly Future Land)Yuexiu Property China HongqiaoLongfor Propertiesand more...

India

UPL Ltd. manufactures, distributes and exports off-patent agrochemicals. The Company also manufactures phosphorus & phosphorus-based compounds and its products include herbicides, fungicides, insecticides, fumigants and rodenticides. United Phosphorus also manufactures industrial chemicals, specialty chemicals and chloralkaline products

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UPL Ltd (UPLL IN)

UPL Limited - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

UPL's Q2/23-24 results were very weak, with revenues and earnings declining significantly and a deterioration in working capital. Our scepticism...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap - 27 Oct 2023

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 24: Bharat Electronics Vs L&T Might Be Interesting

If BHE gets added to NIFTY 50, there could be 10x 3m average daily deliverable volume to buy. This can be viewed as a catalyst to help BHE...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Weekly Wrap - 20 Oct 2023

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap - 13 Oct 2023

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

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