Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

High Yield Experts

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

Credit

UPL's Q2/23-24 results were very weak, with revenues and earnings declining significantly and a deterioration in working capital. Our scepticism of the company has continued to deepen with the results. We are concerned about the lack of discussion on the huge debt reduction and unusual earnings call set-up in Q4/22-23, as well as the subsequent rebound in debt in Q1/23-24. We note that the pressure to reduce net debt to USD 2 bn in Q4/22-23 was to meet management's aggressive guidance and rating agencies' expectations. Management had released the Q4 results in early May 2023, almost halfway through Q1/23-24. Yet, there were few indications of very weak Q1 or H1 numbers. In addition, we are sceptical of management's guidance, even after it has been revised downwards. The new guidance implies c. 18% y-o-y revenue growth and a c. 28-30% increase in EBITDA in H2/23-24. That said, management does not expect y-o-y improvement in Q3. Hence, for UPL to meet the guidance, all the growth would have to be registered in Q4. We do not believe that the company will be able to meet the full-year guidance.

  UPL's Q2/23-24 results were very weak, with revenues and earnings declining significantly and a deterioration in working capital. Our scepticism of the company has continued to deepen with the results. We are concerned about the lack of discussion on the huge debt reduction and unusual earnings call set-up in Q4/22-23, as well as the subsequent rebound in debt in Q1/23-24. We note that the pressure to reduce net debt to USD 2 bn in Q4/22-23 was to meet management's aggressive guidance and rating agencies' expectations. Management had released the Q4 results in early May 2023, almost halfway through Q1/23-24. Yet, there were few indications of very weak Q1 or H1 numbers.   In addition, we are sceptical of management's guidance, even after it has been revised downwards. The new guidance implies c. 18% y-o-y revenue growth and a c. 28-30% increase in EBITDA in H2/23-24. That said, management does not expect y-o-y improvement in Q3. Hence, for UPL to meet the guidance, all the growth would have to be registered in Q4. We do not believe that the company will be able to meet the full-year guidance. 

UPL Limited - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

UPL Ltd

UPL Limited - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics